Partygate: 'Boris’s defence will look slippery because it is'

The Met is investigating at least 12 events, including six Boris Johnson is thought to have attended.

The identities of those issued with fines will not be disclosed by Scotland Yard, although Downing Street has made clear it will confirm if the PM is handed one. The force will also not disclose which of the long list of parties the fines relate to.

The initial wave of fines is not expected to include the PM, who was among dozens of people issued with a police questionnaire to account for their actions, as he is contesting the allegations and took advice from his personal lawyer on how to respond.

A few months back as the political temperature rose and public disgust increased with every damaging revelation over partygate, it looked like curtains for Boris.

Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, was at the front of the queue, demanding he go.

But as has been previously mentioned, if a sitting PM refuses to leave there is usually only one way to get rid of him or her, outwith a general election; the party has to ditch them.

While a number of letters demanding Boris’s resignation went into Sir Graham Brady, the inscrutable Chairman of the Tory 1922 backbench committee, it did not reach the magic number of 54 signatories; otherwise, we would have heard about it.

Now, it might be that that number is reached, depending on what happens with the fines ie who is fined and what new light the final report by the Whitehall mandarin Sue Gray throws on the story.

But, already, we know some Tory MPs have withdrawn their letters to the 1922, most notably Ross, in light of the need for “national unity” on the war in Ukraine. They argue now is not the time to oust a sitting PM when an ally needs to be shown total solidarity.

Indeed, even if that 54 number of signatories were reached, it would not be enough to oust Boris. A majority of Conservative MPs, 181, would need to vote to boot him out of Downing St. Which is, as things stands, an even unlikelier scenario.

Initially, Johnson repeatedly said all the lockdown rules were followed. But, clearly, they weren’t.

Then, he changed tack and sought to cover his back, insisting he had been assured that all rules had been followed. His opponents will argue the fines show the PM lied or, in parliamentary parlance, misled the Commons. But his defence will refer to the earlier point that he was told all rules had been followed, so that, yes, he misled Parliament but he did not do so knowingly.

This lunchtime, Downing St, which would not be drawn on whether Johnson would resign if fined, saying it was a “hypothetical situation,” denied the PM had deliberately misled the Commons, saying: “At all times he has set out his understanding of events.”

Earlier, Wes Streeting, the Shadow Health Secretary, claimed the Met announcement about people in Downing St being fined over partygate showed Boris was a “proven liar”.

His colleague, Angela Rayner, said the war in Ukraine should not be used as an excuse to save him.

“After over two months of police time, 12 parties investigated and over 100 people questioned under caution, Boris Johnson’s Downing Street has been found guilty of breaking the law,” declared the Labour deputy leader.

“The culture is set from the very top. The buck stops with the Prime Minister, who spent months lying to the British public, which is why he has got to go.”

A campaign group for bereaved relatives of people who died with Covid stressed how Johnson "should have resigned months ago over this".

But, of course, he won’t go.

Boris’s defence will look slippery because it is. However, the PM is determined to cling on at all costs. Perhaps only a stark revelation in the publication of the full Gray report in a few weeks’ time could tip the political balance for Tory MPs but it would have to be extremely stark.

Another positive for Johnson is that none of the alternatives - Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Sajid Javid - is creating a groundswell of positive opinion among Conservative backbenchers.

So, the country and the Tory Party, are, for now, stuck with Boris.

With it looking likely that the Westminster Parliament will run its full course to May 2024 when the next general election will take place, Conservative HQ will be hoping that partygate will fade from the public consciousness and there will be enough time to repair the trust that has been lost with many voters and, in parallel, to try to discredit as much as possible the alternative of Keir Starmer and the Labour Party.

As we near 2024, politics could get nastier as this process pans out while in Scotland an increasingly beleaguered Nicola Sturgeon will try to rally her troops to the Nationalist cause of Indyref2, knowing Boris will not cave in to her demand.

The last thing the PM needs is a self-created constitutional crisis at home; there are, he believes, much bigger political fish to fry; the biggest of which, of course, is saving his own premiership.

And yet if, after Gray’s full report into partygate is published, Houdini Johnson manages to escape the political shackles of the scandal, he might not escape the electoral consequences.

Boris must know that, come polling day in 2024, voters never forget. Ask John Major.