Poll: Twice as many Scots may back staying in reformed UK to independence

READ MORE: Gordon Brown says UK Government could become partner in Scottish Investment Bank

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said last week she still wants to hold Indyref2 next year after the SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford seemed to suggest the Scottish Government's planned timetable for the poll could be delayed because of the war in Ukraine.

Today's poll was published by the pro-Union think tank Our Scottish Future with much of the focus of the research voters' attitudes to the cost of living crisis.

READ MORE: Green hint at risk to Bute House agreement if SNP soften fossil fuel stance

People were asked whether they agreed or not with the following statement: "To what extent do you agree with each of the following statements? A serious plan to change Britain could be more attractive than independence for Scotland."

Former Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown

Some 47% agreed, 22% disagreed, with 26% saying neither. While most of those supporting a reformed UK over independence were Tory and Labour voters, the poll also showed that 30% of SNP voters also agreed with the question.

Former Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown revealed the poll findings in a briefing to journalists this morning.

He said: "By two to one people in Scotland prefer a plan for a changed Britain to independence."

Mr Brown is due to publish a report on recommendations for reform of the UK in the coming weeks and he was pressed by reporters on the survey question, and told the notion of a changed UK could be rather vague leading to a high level of support.

READ MORE: Jim Sillars condemns 'staggering ignorance' of Ukraine's impact on Indyref2

He was also asked for details of what people believe a changed Britain should look like.

The former PM said: "We are going to outline over the next few weeks and months what a changed Britain would look like. And it will mean a lot to the people of Scotland. We want to see a Britain that works for Scotland in a better way than is happening at the moment.

"And yes, you say it is a general comment. But we don't know what independence means, to be honest, as the SNP have not spelt out what it means for the pound, and thus the currency, for trade and thus the border, for membership of Nato which it wants to have but not to be a nuclear weapons holder, for all the different things that the SNP talk about.

"Pensions. They can't spell out what pensions mean. They seem to think that the UK Government will fund pensions in an independent Scotland."

He added: "What we hope in the next few months is to be very concrete about what the changes that could take place in Britain are and how this could make Scotland a better place."

READ MORE: Plans to hold independence vote to be unveiled imminently, says Patrick Harvie

The SNP hit back at Mr Brown's intervention saying he was the "very last person anyone in Scotland can trust when it comes to Scottish self-government" following his involvement in the "the Vow" - ahead of the independence referendum in 2014 - which promised to “guarantee fairness for Scotland” and that the Union would work “to ensure opportunity” and the “social and economic welfare of every citizen”.

Kenneth Gibson, the SNP MSP, said: "Gordon Brown is the very last person anyone in Scotland can trust when it comes to Scottish self-government. He told people to vote No in 2014 promising respect for Scotland and equal partnership.

"Instead we have had continued Tory austerity, Boris Johnson as Prime Minister, and Brexit imposed on Scotland against our will - a Brexit which Gordon Brown's Labour party now supports.

“It’s staggering that as the cost of living crisis heightens, Gordon Brown continues to align himself with Westminster control that sees the poorest families have vital Universal Credit support cut by £20 a week.

READ MORE: Gordon Brown urges Rishi Sunak to drop national insurance rise

“The people of Scotland have already decided - they elected a majority to the Scottish Parliament just 10 months ago in support of an independence referendum. A greater majority than in 2011.

"And nothing that Gordon Brown is proposing would protect Scotland from policies like Brexit, austerity and a Westminster Tory power grab – only independence can do that. As the events since 2014 have shown, only independence offers Scotland the chance of a real equal partnership instead of Westminster control.”

READ MORE: Iain Macwhirter: SNP should call Patrick Harvie’s bluff and scrap the Green coalition

In the 2014 referendum Scots faced a binary choice between independence or staying in the UK. Some 55% backed the Union, and 45% independence.

Leading up to the vote, the Scottish Government backed a multi-option referendum, including a question on devo-max but that was rejected by the then PM David Cameron who agreed to a Yes/No vote.

Former First Minister Alex Salmond later said he had only put forward a multi-option referendum as a negotiating tool to get Mr Cameron to agree to what the Scottish Government really wanted, a binary vote.

Earlier this year, the SNP's former policy chief Chris Hanlon called for three options - including "devo-max" - to be put to voters in Indyref2.

Mr Hanlon, who is a member of the party's policy development committee, said the move could help break the current constitutional logjam with Ms Sturgeon wanting a new vote and Prime Minister Boris Johnson repeatedly failing to agree.

Last year, Alba deputy leader and former Scottish Government minister Kenny MacAskill also backed a third option referendum as a way to break the “constitutional impasse” in a “deeply divided” nation.

Both men said they would vote for independence but thought a multi-option referendum with maximum devolution should be a choice voters are given.

The ideas provoked a backlash among some in the SNP with Scottish Government minister Kevin Stewart branding Mr Hanlon's suggestion "idiotic".

Today's polling also set out the extent of Scots’ fears about the cost of living crisis and followed research for Mr Brown's think tank that when energy price rises kick in at the start of next month, the estimated number of people in Scotland in fuel poverty will soar from 750,000 people to 1.2 million.

By October – when further increase are expected – that number could double to 2.5 million, according to figures compiled for Our Scottish Future by Emeritus Professor of Social Policy at York University Jonathan Bradshaw.

It also found that:

• Scots fear the next year will be worse for their finances than the Covid crisis. Some 48% said they feared their financial situation would worsen over the next 12 months, with only 14% saying they think it will improve. This compares to the 37% who say that Covid made them less financially secure.

• 40% of Scots said they were either "struggling" or described their finances as "tight"

• The cost of living and inflation are now twice as important to households across Scotland than any other economic issue. 63% ranked it as a top 3 issue, as against 30% for pensions, the next highest

• On how an unexpected £500 bill would affect their finances – 47% - said they either would not be able to pay it, or would have to borrow or save money elsewhere to do so

Mr Brown called on the UK and Scottish Governments to respond to public demand by working together to support households through the crisis.

In a speech to supporters this evening he says: “What is needed is a plan that makes Britain work for the people of Scotland that starts by solving the cost of living crisis now and then in the years to come by employing all the resources of the UK to the benefit of Scotland.

“Cooperation between Scotland and the UK - not confrontation or conflict between the two - is essential for the near-term recovery of Scotland and for the medium and long term prosperity of the Scottish people."

Our Scottish Future also sets out a range of measures on how the UK and Scottish Governments can work together to provide support for households in the short term, and grow the economy over the longer time span.

In the short-term, Mr Brown calls on the UK Government to delay the rise to National Insurance contributions, due to come in next month, and and urges the Scottish Government to re-think its 'flawed' council tax rebate so that more money can help the poorest households.

In the medium term, the report said that the UK and Scottish Government should together invest in modern housing technologies, better regulations over private landlords, and working with utility companies to protect those most in need.

In the long term, it says the UK Government should come in to beef up the Scottish Government’s "underfunded and unfocussed 10 year economic transformation plan": investing to become an equal partner in the Scottish National Investment Bank, and working jointly to make Scotland an export superpower in renewables, life sciences, digital, and manufacturing

Mr Brown will say: “From April, when the new energy prices kick in, the number of people in fuel poverty will rise from 750,000 to 1.2 million overnight and it could even go much higher by October without compensatory action.

“Neither the UK nor the Scottish Governments are doing enough. And what’s more they are not bothering to cooperate when together they should be making a sustained impact on poverty across our land.”

He will add: “In the short term, that means that we need to offer help with heating and living costs to give much needed relief to families – well beyond the insufficient offer made by UK and Scottish governments so far in that’s clear what should be done....In the medium term, we need a plan to get heating bills down through bulk purchase of energy, the wider and faster deployment of the new cheaper solar and wind power, the shift of subsidy from on solar non wind and non wave projects to those that have best chance of cutting heating costs as well as cutting carbon usage.”

And he will continue: "But in the longer term we need to build a stronger economy capable of growing without excessive inflation and the inevitable hit on living standards that rising inflation brings.

"Since 2015 and until 2019 Scotland had lower annual growth rate than anywhere in mainland Britain despite spending far more than any other part of mainland Britain on industrial support. Growth was just 0.7% a year compared with 3% a year in London and 2.25% in the West Midlands and even 2% in North West. Only Northern Ireland with 0.5% growth did worse.”

A total of 2,025 Scottish residents were polled by Stack Data Strategy between 3 and 14 February.