NICOLA Sturgeon could risk the SNP deal with the Greens and bring her majority government to an end if she softens her opposition to North Sea oil and gas production as some senior figures in her party want, The Herald has been told.
The First Minister has been urged by some party colleagues to weaken her hostility to the fossil fuel industry in the face of extraction being stepped up amid efforts to reduce European dependency on Russian gas - which is helping fund the war in Ukraine.
In a move designed to put pressure on Russian President Vladmir Putin, the European Union - which relies on Russia for 40 per cent of its gas consumption - announced last week it would reduce its demand for Russian imports by two-thirds this year and end its dependence in total before the end of the decade.
On the same day the US and the UK - which rely considerably less on Russian oil and gas than the EU - announced they too were ending imports.
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But the developments have intensified growing debates about how to fill the energy gap.
Governments across the EU, the UK and Scotland all plan to significantly boost renewable energy production, however currently green sources do not provide enough power to industry or to homes - with 80 per cent of Scottish homes reliant on gas central heating.
Ms Sturgeon has taken an increasingly hard line on the sector since the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow last autumn, calling for an end to oil and gas exploration in order to reduce environmentally damaging emissions.
In October last year the First Minister insisted: “The necessity of accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels could not be clearer.” Weeks after COP26 she said the Cambo oil field off Shetland should not get the "green light".
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But interventions made by senior SNP figures point to Ms Sturgeon facing some internal party pressure to row back on her approach.
Alyn Smith, the SNP's foreign affairs spokesman at Westminster, said last week all energy sources should be "on the table" in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
And in the Commons SNP energy spokesman Stephen Flynn, underlined the importance of the North Sea industry as he responded to a UK government statement on energy in the wake of the war in Ukraine.
Mr Flynn said: “This is a seismic shift in UK, US and indeed European energy policy. We also can’t be blind to the fact that there will be consequences to this. One of those potential consequences is for retaliatory action form Putin himself.
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“If there was to be gas and oil shortages on the European continent, as a producer of oil and gas, does this not emphasise the importance of Scotland’s North Sea oil and gas reserves?"
Their comments came around a week after former SNP energy minister Fergus Ewing said domestic production should be maximised.
A Scottish Green source told The Herald on Tuesday that were the First Minister to "U turn" she may put at risk the agreement with the Greens which allows her to govern as a majority.
Asked what would be the consequence of the First Minister softening her stance, the senior Scottish Green said: "I think it would be a spanner in the works and there would be serious questions that Green MSPs and the wider party would have to ask about the future of the agreement and the future of close working together.
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"It would not only be a retrograde step, it would be a U turn given the changes we have seen in the last six months, given the statements around Cambo, and the statements around COP. We would need to reassess."
Asked whether it could put the agreement in jeopardy, the senior source said: "Yes, it could."
The Bute House Agreement saw the Scottish Greens co leaders Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater become government ministers and share power with the SNP at Holyrood for the first time.
In return, the seven Scottish Greens MSPs are required to vote with the SNP on agreed policy areas as well to support the government in confidence and budget votes.
In the last parliamentary term, when the SNP governed as a minority, both Ms Sturgeon and her deputy John Swinney faced no confidence votes and were saved when the Greens opted to give their support to the ministers. Should the agreement break down the SNP would govern again as a minority administration.
Under the agreement climate change and energy were listed among the policy areas where the parties would be obliged agree.
The deal did set out how any tensions between the two parties could be resolved with the option of an agreed area becoming one excluded from the deal.
A second insider told The Herald that the debate around fossil fuels was changing as a result of the war in Ukraine from one about the speed of reducing carbon emissions to meet net zero, to one about energy security.
"The Greens have always been clear that we need to leave all remaining oil in the ground so if there were any expressed intent by the SNP to agree with the UK Government about issuing new oil and gas licences and for production to continue, that would be a very serious problem for the agreement," said the source.
"But what complicates the issue is the politics of Ukraine and European reliance on Russian oil and gas.
"Though Britain is not exposed to Russian oil and gas to a great extent there's a strong political argument to continue or even accelerate production.
"It could well lead to tensions between the SNP and Greens but it would probably be sorted before it got into the open through the disputes process in the agreement as I think the Green parliamentary group is committed to the agreement and would go all out to make sure that whatever change of tack there might be, they can live with that.
"If agreement can't be reached we are in different ball game, but I think it would. There is politics in all of this and the Greens won't want the SNP to be rowing back on what the First Minister has previously said."
In interviews during the week and at First Minister's Questions on Thursday Ms Sturgeon reaffirmed her opposition to new North Sea fields – as she insisted the best strategy to end energy reliance on Russia is to accelerate a transition away from fossil fuels. It is understood her interventions have eased Scottish Green concerns.
On energy the Bute House agreement set out the parties common approach to a "just transition" away from fossil fuels.
It stated: "While we do not entirely agree on the role of the oil and gas sector, given the urgency of the climate emergency, we accept that countries around the world, including the UK, cannot continue with unlimited recovery of hydrocarbons if the aims of the Paris Agreement are to be met – we cannot ignore the concern that unlimited extraction of fossil fuels is simply incompatible with protecting the planet.
"However, we recognise how important our oil and gas industry, infrastructure, highly skilled workforce and supply chain are to Scotland. To support the economy and communities that depend upon the sector, and to ensure we meet our energy needs sustainably, we must secure a transition that is truly just, maximises opportunities for decarbonisation, protects workers and their rights, but also fast enough to protect the planet."
Ms Sturgeon was criticised last year by a former SNP spin doctor over her opposition to Cambo. Fergus Mutch said voters were unlikely to forgive her if unemployment rises and “more imported oil for decades”. He said her change of policy could lead to “difficulty for the SNP at the polls” and had “serious risks".
Scottish Greens MSP Maggie Chapman said: "We’ve seen a considerable shift in position from the SNP over recent years, and it seems Fergus Ewing has been left behind. Greens in government are doing what we can to reduce the reliance on gas, investing in clean heating systems and insulation while paving the way for a massive expansion in Scotland’s renewable energy capacity. It’s time the UK Government and Mr Ewing caught up.”
The Scottish Government was approached for comment.
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