Even with Tory travails, Labour has a mountain to climb in Scotland, says Mike Settle

All of which has been rocket-boosted by the made-in-Downing-St scandal Boris Johnson is entangled in and which yesterday entered another chapter with claims of intimidation by party whips amounting to “blackmail” against Tory MPs in a bid to keep the PM in office.

Even if Johnson manages to miraculously pull off a great escape worthy of Houdini, political damage has been done, not only to himself but also to the Conservative brand. Voters have long memories.

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The comrades at Westminster are understandably cock-a-hoop at the defection of Christian Wakeford, the “solid Tory” MP for Bury South, despite his string of disparaging comments about them in previous months. Party sources suggest there might be more in the pipeline. Let’s see.

Yet, Wakeford’s act of betrayal stirred Tory tribal instincts and, apparently, caused some of the disgruntled 2019-ers to withdraw their letters of no confidence.

To perhaps the relief of many Conservatives, for once, amid the constant Boris-bashing, they had another target to fire out: the pork pie plotters.

Yet the PM knows the vicissitudes of partygate will continue up to, and possibly beyond, publication of the Gray report. Indeed, it was suggested yesterday the mandarin has uncovered the “smoking gun” email from an official warning the May 2020 party should not go ahead. Showtime is expected next week.

While Labour politicians now have a spring in their step given all the travails their party has suffered in recent years, a loud note of caution should be sounded. The next general election is over two years away.

Being continually ahead in the opinion polls is probably a prerequisite to winning an election and being ahead in the last 37 has buoyed Labour HQ. However, in the long run-up to Labour’s last victory in 1997, the party was continually ahead of the Tories in more than 300 polls for the best part of...five years.

Very often, Labour leads stretched into the 30s. One snapshot even put it 43 points clear of the Conservatives.

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So, while the their spirits are up, things have to be put in perspective. In reality, Keir Starmer may not yet have reached base camp in his attempt to scale the electoral Everest before him. And the steepest slope he faces is Scotland.

While the UK polling numbers are moving in the right direction, the picture is not so red-rosy north of the border. Yes, Scottish Labour has eased ahead of the Tories on Westminster voting intentions but they are still behind them when it comes to Holyrood. And on both counts, Scottish Labour is miles behind the SNP.

Labour still has only one Scottish MP, underlining its dramatic fall post the 2010 election, before when it had 41.

As with Labour’s win in 1997, they not only need to look like a competent, professional alternative, they also need to produce a package of policies that is attractive.

A few days back, Starmer refused to be drawn on what looks certain to be his flagship policy for Scotland: devo-max. Certain, because Gordon Brown is conducting the review. Given all the ex-PM has said before about constitutional change, it is a no-brainer he will promote much stronger powers for Holyrood.

Now, not surprisingly the die-hard Scottish Nationalists and the die-hard Scottish Unionists have royally mocked Labour’s attempt to get skin in the constitutional game.

Yet the devo-max proposal is not aimed at them; it’s aimed at those voters in the non-affiliated centre, who might be persuaded a third option could for once heave Scotland out of its polarised constitutional debate.

To uplift Labour, the partygate saga has left a clear rift between Tories in Scotland and Tories in England. If Boris Johnson somehow survives until the 2024 election, just what do the likes of Douglas Ross do? He could hardly urge Scots to put a PM back in Downing St he believes shouldn’t be there because of duplicity.

It’s interesting to see how Labour frontbenchers are now pictured on TV in front on Union flags; an indication they want to wrest the Unionist mantle out of Conservative hands. Indeed, yesterday, Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves gave another pro-business speech with not one but two Union flags behind her. The speech, by sheer coincidence, took place in Bury.

One intriguing thought is, given the numbers are heavily stacked against Labour becoming a majority government in 2024, Starmer might only be able to form a minority government and start having to do deals to enter Downing St. Depending on the Commons numbers, a confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberal Democrats might not be enough. He may – whisper it – have to turn to the SNP.

Nicola Sturgeon’s price would be obvious: indyref2. However, if the Labour leader offered one but with a devo-max option in there, would the FM, by now approaching the sunset of her primacy, take it?

If she refused, a Labour government could end up paralysed without the necessary parliamentary numbers. Consequently, a second general election might not be long off and who knows, with a new post-Boris leader at the helm, the Tories could sneak back in.

All scenarios, however unlikely, are war-gamed as the next election approaches.

While Starmer and his comrades might be benefitting at the moment from the woes of Boris, the party leader should not confuse disaffection for the Tories with affection for Labour.

The Opposition has a lot of work to do and will have to strive every hour of every day to earn the trust and votes of the British public, particularly in Scotland, the toughest climb Starmer and his chum Anas Sarwar have to negotiate. Without doing so, Labour may never reach the summit.

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