THE world remains on course for a catastrophic surge in temperature despite thre recent announcements at COP26, leaving the Glasgow summit with a “massive credibility gap”, experts have warned.

In its annual report, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) group said current government action and pledges up to 2030 would mean a 2.4C rise by the end of the century.

CAT said every country should be in "emergency mode" instead of taking yet more "baby steps", and suggested an annual COP focused on short-term action, like Glasgow.

The verdict, that no government is doing enough to avert disaster for humanity, comes as the current summit enters its final negotiating phase before concluding on Friday.

COP26 is supposed to deliver hjard and fast plans to keep the temperature rise below 2C and preferably below 1.5C to avoid the worst flood, fire, drought, famine, ice melt and sea rise scenarios.

Greenhouse gas emissions need to halve by 2030 to keep 1.5C alive, but the analysis said the gap would only close by 15 to 17 per cent based on targets set by governments.

CAT said only a few countries had set credible 2030 targets, including South Africa and Morocco, while India’s package of pledges looked to deliver very little change by then.

Australia had also offered “nothing new”, and Brazil’s latest targets had gone backwards.

Although 140 countries covering 90% of global emissions have announced long-term net zero goals, the experts said these risked being mere “lip service to real climate action”.

The CAT report said if all the net zero pledges were met, they could limit temperature rise to 1.8C, but given the inaction and backsliding to date, that was a very big if.

Many of the promises are also considered questionable as the countries making them have not made short term plans to get them underway.

If current policies on climate change continue long-term, warming would be even worse than feared, putting the world on track for 2.7C about pre-industrial levels.

CAT said that cast a “long and dark shadow of doubt over the net zero goals” 

Countries were required to submit new more ambitious 2030 targets in the run-up to Glasgow to get the world on track to limit dangerous warming.

But the analysis said the latest targets were still wholly inadequate.

Warming could be curbed to 2.1C under an optimistic scenario which includes long term goals from some countries that are binding or submitted to the UN process, mainly the US 2050 net zero goal and China’s 2060 carbon neutrality target.

CAT said the current “appalling outlook” was being driven by continuing use of coal – despite warnings the fossil fuel must be phased out in more advanced economies by 2030 and globally by 2040 – and gas, which has seen use increase since the Paris Agreement.

COP26 has seen announcements on cutting methane and halting deforestation, but the analysis said these must go beyond existing national targets to have an impact.

Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, one of the partners in the analysis, said: “The vast majority of 2030 actions and targets are inconsistent with net zero goals: there’s a nearly one degree gap between government current policies and their net zero goals.

“It’s all very well for leaders to claim they have a net zero target, but if they have no plans as to how to get there, and their 2030 targets are as low as so many of them are, then frankly, these net zero targets are just lip service to real climate action.

“Glasgow has a serious credibility gap.

Prof Niklas Hohne, of NewClimate Institute, the other Climate Action Tracker partner, said: “While the wave of net zero targets appears like remarkable news, we can’t sit back and relax. All countries must urgently look at what more they can do.”

He warned: “If the massive 2030 gap cannot be narrowed in Glasgow, governments must agree to come back next year, by COP27, with new and stronger targets.

“Today’s leaders need to be held to account for this massive 2030 gap.”

Greenpeace international executive director Jennifer Morgan described it as “a devastating report” and called for countries in Glasgow to agree how they were going to com back next year and every year after that until the gap to 1.5C is closed.

Shadow business secretary Ed Miliband said it was an “important reality check on the government’s attempt to greenwash Glasgow” with dubious claims of achievement.

He said: “All countries urgently need to step up the ambition and to agree to revisit these issues well before 2025, otherwise the chance to limit global warming to 1.5C will slip irrevocably through our hands.”

Dr Kat Kramer, Christian Aid’s climate policy lead, who described the analysis as “yet another screaming siren” that the world was far off where it needed to be, said countries must increase ambition annually and recognise the need to end the fossil fuel era. 

Lang Banks, Director of WWF Scotland, said: “To put it bluntly, what has been pledged so far in Glasgow is not yet enough to prevent the world from warming more than 1.5C - putting people and nature in peril. Climate pledges are not the same as climate action and it’s clear the biggest gap lies in real action to cut emissions this decade.

“Every fraction of a degree of warming matters to limit the catastrophic dangers of climate change. There’s no more time to waste, we need to see all those net zero commitments for far off in the future backed up by real and rapid cuts to emissions by 2030.”

Scottish Greens climate spokesperson Mark Ruskell said: “Unlike other predictions, this analysis shows the real gap between ambitious targets and the action required to meet them. 2.4 degrees of heating would mean a much higher instance of fires, flooding and droughts with a catastrophic loss of species including pollinators.

“CAT are absolutely clear that inaction on fossil fuels is the primary cause for concern, which is why the UK Government’s leadership of these talks is shameful.

“Ambitious targets are meaningless when you are going to be burning even more fossil fuels and encouraging more and more people to drive and fly. That’s why CAT describe these targets as ‘false hope to the reality’ of inaction.

“It’s clear we cannot rely on the most polluting industries to lead us to a low carbon future, which is why this report warns against listening to the gas industry for solutions. It’s time the UK Government woke up to its responsibility and drove real action in the final days of the talks, before it’s too late.”