COP26 Glasgow: Majority pessimistic about success of summit

This compares to 70% who are not confident, while 9% don't know.

COP26, which kicks off today and will run until November 12, will see more than 25,000 delegates descend on Glasgow as well as thousands of protesters and activists.

More than 120 world leaders are due to attend, including US President Joe Biden.

The summit has been described as the "last best hope" to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, with major protests expected from activists urging world leaders to do more.

The BMG poll found widespread pessimism about its chances of success.

However, there were high levels of support for a range of policies to tackle the crisis, with climate sceptics now in a small minority.

More people support (45%) than oppose (26%) banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in the UK from 2030.

Likewise, more people support (47%) than oppose (19%) banning the expansion of existing airports or the building of new airports in the UK.

Meanwhile, 65% would support the UK government paying for all homes to be retrofitted with improved insulation.

This is a policy promoted by the Insulate Britain campaign group, which has sparked controversy by blocking major roads including motorways.

The poll found 56% of people would back a frequent flyer tax targeted at the 10% most frequent flyers.

And more people would support (40%) than oppose (26%) banning the sale of gas boilers in the UK from 2025.

However, more people oppose (43%) than support (29%) the introduction of a tax on consumers buying meat products and other foods that produce higher emissions.

Respondents were also less favourable to the idea of giving billions of pounds to developing countries to reduce their emissions and tackle climate change.

The poll found 38% opposed this, while 31% supported it.

Climate sceptics are now in a very small minority, the poll found, with 77% saying global temperatures are increasing as a result of human activity, and just 11% taking the opposite view.

There was also support for putting the climate crisis ahead of jobs and the economy.

More people (49%) thought the UK Government should focus on the environment and reducing emissions even if this hurts existing jobs and damages the economy, than thought ministers should focus on the economy and protecting jobs even if this worsens emissions and damages the environment (34%).

BMG polled 1,816 over 18s across Great Britain on October 25 and 26.

It found the Greens are the most trusted party when it comes to their policies on the environment and climate change, with 22% of respondents picking them compared to 16% who chose the Conservatives and 14% Labour.

A third of those who voted Labour at the 2019 general election said they trusted the Greens' policies on the environment the most.

Meanwhile, more people (40%) thought the Conservative Government had handled the issue of the environment and climate change badly than thought it had handled it well (22%).

Adam King, a pollster at BMG, said: "Despite the continued rhetoric from the UK Government and its COP26 partners that climate change is a key focus, our polling shows that seven in ten Britons are pessimistic about whether world leaders can reach a solution capable of effectively tackling climate change at the conference.

"This doubt may in part be fuelled by the public's view of the Conservative Government's own record on climate change which is seen as poor by two-fifths, and as mixed by almost a third.

"Even amongst Conservative voters, only two-fifths think it is doing well with its handling of the issue.

"While cynicism towards politicians is certainly not new, nor limited to environmental issues, Boris Johnson, [COP26 President] Alok Sharma, and the rest of the UK delegates should note that climate change is now a key concern to the GB public.

"Over three-quarters of them (77%) agree that global temperatures are increasing as a result of human activity, and almost half want to see the UK Government reducing emissions and protecting the environment, even if this hurts existing jobs and damages the economy.

"Even historically more sceptical parts of the population are now most likely to want to see politicians take action on climate change.

"The result is that policies including the UK Government paying for all homes to be retrofitted with improved insulation, a frequent flyer tax aimed at the 10% flying most regularly, and a ban on the expansion or creation of new airports in the UK all attract high levels of public support.

"One comfort for the Conservatives is that, aside from the Greens, they are the party whose policies on the environment are most likely to be trusted by voters - though a fifth say they do not have faith in any party.

"Meanwhile, as many as a third of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they are more likely to trust Green Party's environmental policies, something that [party leader] Keir Starmer and his team will most likely be concerned about."

Glasgow is gearing up for widespread disruption as COP26 kicks off, with the world leaders' part of the summit taking place in the first couple of days.

Speaking in Glasgow on Friday, Nicola Sturgeon said the success of the talks in limiting the rise in global temperatures cannot be taken for granted.

The First Minister acknowledged there is still a "significant gap" between ambitions to keep the rise in global temperatures below 1.5 degrees and the current commitments from world leaders.

She said: "I don't think success at this summit can be taken for granted at all.

"And that's probably an understatement.

"World leaders will gather here Sunday into Monday.

"And the position at the opening of the conference is one that sees a significant gap between where we need to get to to keep 1.5 degrees alive as the limit of global warming."

Ms Sturgeon said current commitments were not sufficient to keep global warming below two degrees.

She added: "If that gap can't all be closed in Glasgow, then at the very least we need to come out of Glasgow with a clear process and timescale around the way in which it will be closed.

"In other words, keeping 1.5 alive.

"The next decade, between now and 2030, is critical if we want to keep 1.5 alive."

The First Minister said she wanted the UK's presidency of the climate change summit to be a "roaring success".

She also said the event posed an inevitable risk of increased Covid-19 transmission.

COP26 President Alok Sharma has said he wants the summit to keep the 1.5C target within reach, insisting its success is hanging "in the balance".

The hope is there will be a negotiated outcome - a formal agreement by countries - from the talks that sets out how the gap will be closed and spurs further action in the next decade.

Road closures are in place around the Scottish Event Campus (SEC) and residents have been urged to avoid unnecessary journeys during the first few days of the summit, which are expected to be particularly busy.

Ms Sturgeon said she expected both pre-planned and spontaneous protests to take place during the two-week conference.

But she stressed "progress will not be made if discussions are disrupted".

Police Scotland Chief Constable Iain Livingstone has said those intent on causing violent disorder during the summit will be responded to "swiftly and robustly".

He said policing the international conference will be one of the largest operations to have taken place anywhere in the UK.