Rebecca McQuillan: If there’s a trade war now, it will be entirely the UK’s fault

This was him the other night, reporting on the ongoing stramash between the UK and the EU over Northern Ireland. Stating that the UK wanted to reverse its previous agreement over the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ), he said: “Our Ireland correspondent Emma Vardy has the latest on the search … for a compromise.”

Search for a compromise? Are you kidding? Well done, Huw, for controlling those eloquent eyebrows. If anyone’s searching for a compromise, it’s certainly not the UK.

David “Lord” Frost – nothing says modern Britain like having a peer as your chief diplomat – has no intention of compromising: he wants to tear up the Northern Ireland Protocol altogether.

Like an imperious Baroque princeling, he has issued a series of one-sided threats and demands aimed at changing a treaty he himself negotiated. In Lord Frost’s universe, there should be zero compromise from the UK and lots of compromise from the EU.

Well, the EU has now done its bit. It can see for itself that Brexit and the protocol have upset the political balance in Northern Ireland and has this week published some pretty far-reaching proposals that would significantly ease trade across the Irish Sea. It proposes massively cutting spot checks on food and other goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain – hello British bangers – and reducing customs paperwork by half – goodbye form-filling. The bloc has also offered to amend its own law to allow drug manufacturers to supply Northern Ireland. That border in the Irish Sea would look a lot more permeable with these changes in place.

“We have completely turned our rules upside down and inside out,” said the European Commission vice-president Maroš Šefčovič, with justification.

So naturally government insiders are spinning this as proof that their belligerent negotiating tactics have been right all along.

But of course that’s un grand sac d’ordures.

The big question the government has yet to answer satisfactorily is why, if the protocol was so bad, they signed it in the first place.

These problems have not been caused by Brussels, but by Brexit itself. The British government all this time has been raging against the on-the-ground reality of its own big idea. They were warned these problems would arise, but they didn’t listen – or perhaps they didn’t care.

Here’s a whirlwind run-down of what happened. Boris Johnson promised there would be no border down the Irish Sea. Boris Johnson became Prime Minister. Boris Johnson promised that he had an “oven-ready deal” to get Brexit done if people voted for him in the general election. Boris Johnson got elected and signed the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in January 2020, including the Northern Irish Protocol – which put a border down the Irish Sea. Boris Johnson’s government threatened unilaterally to break the Withdrawal Agreement, an international treaty, over the protocol, badly damaging Britain’s reputation in Brussels, Washington and other capitals.

And all the while, the UK has blamed the EU for problems flaring in the province, when in fact the root problem underlying the whole sorry mess is and always was the UK government’s insistence upon a hard Brexit.

Now we hear from Dominic Cummings, the Prime Minister’s former aide, that Boris Johnson intended to “ditch” bits of the protocol after the deal was signed – that he did not agree it in good faith – and to demand changes after it became law, a version of events corroborated by Ian Paisley, the Democratic Unionist MP.

If true, this means the Prime Minister knew perfectly well the protocol would cause problems in Northern Ireland but lied about it to the country, to the EU and to the people of Northern Ireland and signed it anyway.

Let that sink in for a moment. You’re not remotely surprised, are you?

So what happens now? Well, the government seems intent on demanding an end to any role for the ECJ. The EU might be prepared to limit its role, suggesting an independent arbitration panel and keeping the ECJ as an arbiter of last resort, but hair-shirted Brexiteers won’t like that. So then what?

Well, it’s too soon to anticipate a trade war, but it remains a real possibility. The UK has itself talked up the chances of one with threats to trigger so-called Article 16, which would be the first step towards a breakdown of relations.

And just imagine that. The UK is already experiencing shortages and higher prices, largely because of a lack of HGV drivers, made considerably worse by Brexit. Trade with the EU is down, again because of Brexit, and we could face even worse disruption caused by a trade war with the EU, and all because of what? The oversight of the Northern Ireland protocol by the ECJ? No one but Brexit hardliners care a jot about the ECJ. Northern Irish businesses like the EU’s offer. This whole thing could be settled, if the UK negotiating team would only emerge from its ideological foxhole. If they don’t – if there is a trade war – the responsibility for it will lie entirely at the UK’s feet.

A solution is not imminent. The government seems to see this row as a wonderful distraction for the economic mess at home and there has been a concerted campaign all along to deflect blame for any ongoing tensions in Northern Ireland onto the EU.

And all the while, the UK’s reputation sinks further. The Irish deputy Prime Minister Leo Varadkar has accused Mr Johnson of acting in “bad faith” and has warned other nations against doing deals with Britain until the government shows it can be trusted. Fears that the UK’s destructive approach could threaten peace in Northern Ireland has already hindered attempts to get trade talks started with the United States.

This is no victory for the government. It is a mess, a foreseeable, avoidable mess. But a mess is what you’re left with when barmy ideology and political expediency get in the way of good government.

Our columns are a platform for writers to express their opinions. They do not necessarily represent the views of The Herald.