THE transport minister has admitted he is relying on “guesstimates” for the introduction of free bus travel in Scotland for the under-22s next year.

The SNP’s Graeme Dey said he wasn’t sure how much usage would rise, but insisted it wouldn’t lead to costs being passed on to other passengers through higher fares.

Mr Dey told Holyrood’s Transport Committee that the Scottish Government was “alive to the risk” of such unintended consequences when developing the scheme.

MSPs on the committee later gave their backing to the policy, which was part of a budget deal with the Scottish Greens, and builds on existing free bus travel for the under-19s.

Mr Dey told MSPs the change had “enormous potential” and would be a “fantastic opportunity” for young people when it came into effect on January 31.

He said it would “help strengthen our response to the climate emergency, and support our green recovery by embedding sustainable travel habits in young people.”

However he accepted it was unclear how many people would routinely take advantage of it after an initial spike in interest, and hence the long-term financial calculations. 

He said: “We won’t initially see the kind of levels of usage that we ultimately are going to see. There will be a soft period where we will undoubtedly see an uptake in usage, and we will have to build upon that.

“So we have estimates, but they are guesstimates frankly, about levels of usage.

“But we are confident this is going to be a major success as a policy.”

Under the scheme, bus operators will be reimbursed for all travellers who benefit from free tickets, but MSPs heard payments would be less than the full cost of an adult fare.

Tory MSP Liam Kerr raised concerns that if operators received “significantly less” than a full adult fare, they might raise other fares “to compensate for lost revenue”.

Mr Dey told him: “We don’t believe that to be a risk because we are working very closely with the operators, the bus operators on this scheme.

“The levels of reimbursement have been shaped very much on that dialogue and we are committed to return to these numbers in due course if anything emerges that suggests that the levels of reimbursement are not appropriate.

“So we don’t anticipate an issue of the type you are flagging.”

Green MSP Mark Ruskell said: “This is going to be a brilliant policy.

"I think it is going to be transformational for young people.

"So many young people, particularly in rural areas, are excluded by the price of bus travel.”