COASTAL erosion could put an estimated £1.2 billion of Scotland’s buildings, transport infrastructure, cultural and natural heritage at risk by 2050, new research has warned.
A study for the Scottish Government found swathes of Scotland will be under threat in the coming decades.
Ministers said the country must plan for the "worst case scenario on the coast" in the face of rising sea levels.
They are encouraging local authorities to prepare coastal adaptation plans, supported by £12 million of extra investment over four years.
Researchers from the University of Glasgow mapped the Scottish coastline in an effort to help the Government and councils protect the landscape from erosion and coastal flooding.
The work is part of the Scottish Government's Dynamic Coast project in response to the risks posed by climate change.
SNP Net Zero Secretary Michael Matheson welcomed the research "which shows us that at least £20 billion of assets, road, rail and residential property, lie within 50 metres of our coast".
He said: "With nature protecting some £14.5 billion of these assets, maintaining our natural coastal defences must be a key part of our resilience and adaptation strategies.
“We are already locked into future sea level rise and therefore we must plan for the worst case scenario on the coast.
"Modelling suggests however that we will see erosion influencing the majority of shores this decade.
"The Dynamic Coast maps will be a valuable tool in our fight against climate change, and we are now preparing guidance to help local authorities produce new adaptation plans."
Visiting the sand dunes in Montrose, which help protect the town from coastal flooding and erosion, Mr Matheson added: “Here in Montrose, up to 80 metres of beach has eroded since the 1980s and a further 120 metres could erode over the next 40 years, breaching the main dune ridge.
"Angus Council is working with local stakeholders, including Montrose Port Authority and Montrose Golf links to identify the most sustainable solution for the town.
“Cop26 in Glasgow represents the world’s best chance – perhaps one of our last chances – to avert the worst impacts of climate change.
"However, even in the best case scenario for global emissions reductions it is clear that we must also be preparing for the impacts that are already locked in.
"By doing this we can deliver on the principles of the Paris Agreement with lasting action to secure a net zero and climate resilient future in a way that is fair and just for everyone.”
Dynamic Coast is led by the Scottish Government and managed by the public body NatureScot, with the research carried out by the University of Glasgow. It is funded by CREW (the Centre of Expertise for Waters).
Its first phase, launched in 2017, identified soft and therefore potentially erodible coastline, and showed faster and more extensive erosion since the 1970s.
Phase two added a "climate change layer" to these projections.
Under a cautious risk assessment, where both artificial and natural defences are not maintained, and a high emissions future, it found an estimated £1.2bn of assets may be at risk of erosion by 2050.
The Scottish Government said Dynamic Coast will form part of a wider national programme to build resilience.
Nick Halfhide, climate change director at NatureScot, formerly Scottish Natural Heritage, said: “This latest research from Dynamic Coast highlights that natural defences, such as sand dunes, protect three times the value of roads, railways and buildings than sea walls do. That’s why we must invest in Scotland’s nature.
"Nature based solutions are essential in our response to the twin crises of nature loss and climate change, and with Cop26 coming to Glasgow in the coming months, there’s no better time for Scotland to take ambitious action.”
Professor Bob Ferrier, director of CREW, said: “CREW is delighted to have supported the development and launch of the Dynamic Coast project.
"This nationally significant research will assist decision-makers and others to understand how Scotland’s coastal assets need to adapt to the pressures of climate change and improve our collective resilience in the face of this challenge.”
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