THE announcement of the relaxation of Covid regulations from August 9 is clearly positive news, yet the city of Glasgow remains a severely affected destination.
The traditional pattern of Scottish tourism has been turned upside down following the advent of the pandemic. For decades, tourism was led by the urban products of Edinburgh and Glasgow; they combined leisure and business traffic, meetings, conferences and exhibitions, world class culture and night time economies. These busy urban tourism destinations attracted international and domestic visitors with buoyant events and festivals; innovative accommodation and world class hospitality offers.
From March 2019, all that changed. As our borders closed and attempts to constrain infection rates limited travel, and working from home became the norm, our cities became pale imitations of what they once were.
In the case of Glasgow, the impact was acute and the prolonged period of infection control diluted the possibility of recovery. There is clear and undeniable evidence that the tourism and cultural sectors suffered substantially greater impacts than other parts of the economy. Serviced accommodation in Glasgow saw a drastic reduction in annual room occupancy from over 85% in 2019 to just under 17% in 2020. Early indicators for 2021 (January to May) indicate room occupancy remains extremely challenging.
The second bellwether of tourism performance frequently referred to is visitor numbers to attractions. These iconic castles, museums, galleries and distilleries are critical to our national and international appeal yet restrictions on operation and extended infection control measures have impacted significantly.
At a national level, Scotland’s visitor attractions saw a 63% reduction in visitors between 2019 and 2020. However, for the same period, Glasgow city’s attractions, saw a reduction of 84% (dropping from circa 6.5m visitors in 2019 to 1m in 2020). The recovery of the city’s attractions sector also appears questionable with indicators for 2021 showing just over 60,000 visitors between January to May 2021, evidenced from the Moffat Centre sample analysis of 25 of the city’s attractions.
Critical here is the interconnectedness of visitors and wider aspects of the city economy. A buoyant urban destination helps a hard-strapped retail, hospitality and the night time economy. Our fashionable music and events industries, leading venues, cinemas and theatres have been decimated by regulatory measures and recovery will not stop insolvency and redundancies in these sectors.
READ MORE: Don't kill the city of culture: Glasgow's world-class venues under threat
Glasgow’s night time economy accounted for over 18,000 jobs in 2019 and generated 13.5% of the city's GDP – it has been one the most affected and overlooked sectors at a UK and Scottish level and will take years to recover. The appeal of the city as a place to live, work, study and holiday has been damaged and the symbiotic relationship between such elements of demand and the appeal of Glasgow as a destination merits special consideration as we start to rebuild.
International visitors' absence is clearly being felt with Eurocontrol (the European Air Traffic agency) indicating that the UK remained the hardest hit in terms of flight recovery. The impacts at Glasgow’s award-winning airport was and will remain acute.
While we are now seeing a return in leisure air travel the same cannot be said of business travel. Differential levels of national vaccination roll out will continue to frustrate route recovery, travel patterns have altered and growth in international markets will be slow.
International travel options will also be impacted by the reduction in airlines (due to insolvency), a reduction in routes and frequency of connections, as well as increased costs of air travel.
This will be accompanied by continued pressure on the UK currency making the cost of international holidays greater than in the years to 2020. Overshadowing the pandemic is the continued uncertainty related to Brexit and travel. Simply put, uncertainty related to access as a consequence of Covid-19 and Brexit will dilute demand.
This further impacts Glasgow, which prior to Covid had balanced leisure and business demand with an award-winning meetings, conferences and exhibitions sector. This balanced portfolio reduced overt dependence on one visitor segment but has now been fundamentally undermined, particularly in relation to business travel.
Working practices have changed and technological alternatives to travel and communication offer companies and employers options to save costs and present a more positive environmental profile. Again, the critical urban appeal of the city as a place to work, meet and do business is challenged and changing hearts and minds to rebuild a buoyant economy will require rapid and imaginative action.
In the potential aftermath of the pandemic, it is clear that patterns of demand have now shifted. The loss of international visitors since March 2020 in Scotland has been replaced by buoyant domestic demand (predominantly English and Scottish visitors), as a consequence of the limited international travel options that faced UK residents in the first part of 2021.
Yet, this demand remains focused on non-urban locations. The Highlands and Islands, rural and coastal Scotland are enjoying significant growth in demand and occupancy and rates achieved have never been as strong. This demand situation has been sparked by regulatory restriction of travel to contain Covid-19 infection rates but is also impacted by emotional responses to the situation.
Travel for leisure purposes is predominantly rooted in emotional decision making and issues of perceived safety are a strong factor during these times. There remains considerable anxiety related to the pandemic and perceived risks of travel despite the recent relaxation of restrictions. The situation is clear, the data is providing a prima facie case for imaginative intervention to regenerate this national engine of the tourism and creative industries.
Professor John Lennon is director of Moffat Centre for Travel and Tourism Business Development and Dean of Glasgow School for Business and Society
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