IT was interesting this week to hear Boris Johnson apparently turn down his bullishness about removal of legal limits on social contact on England’s so-called “freedom day” being “irreversible”. After all, the Prime Minister is a man who seems to favour loud, bold, categoric statements, whatever the reality.
He did express “hope” that the ending of these coronavirus-related restrictions would be irreversible, but threw in a great big caveat.
Of course, anyone who has followed the grim twists and turns of this pandemic, and the major misjudgements by the Conservative Government along the way, would surely think a caveat is sensible.
And the likes of business leaders will in their planning still be factoring in various scenarios in terms of the possibilities of some restrictions re-emerging.
Caution is also an asset, if we are to emerge as smoothly as possible from this dismal pandemic, minimising further disruption to the economy and livelihoods, as well as crucially continuing to save lives.
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So in this regard the Prime Minister’s surprisingly categoric bullish tone for months on full reopening (albeit the big day was delayed a short while by reality from June 21 to July 19) never seemed particularly helpful.
Reopening must be accompanied by people continuing to take care around others. Asking for such consideration is surely not impinging on people’s freedom. And why would people not take sensible precautions to minimise spread if it helps avoid a reimposition of restrictions?
Sadly, some tiresome anti-mask rhetoric seems to have come to the fore as England approaches its “freedom day”. Surely wearing a mask in crowded spaces, on public transport, or in supermarkets is not a major continuing burden, given all that we have gone through.
Every little bit that people can do on the public health front makes irreversibility of reopening more likely, or at least would mitigate the nature of any reversal.
Scotland’s reopening is a bit more cautious than that in England but is following broadly the same path, with July 19 and August 9 key dates for the easing of restrictions north of the Border.
It is very important to get the next steps right, to the maximum extent possible, for the population at large and also for the sake of businesses which do not want to be heading backwards on what has been an excruciating road.
Mr Johnson’s rambunctious talk about a midsummer 2021 ending of restrictions, from months ago when the coronavirus picture was at a very grim stage, will have come across to many as incongruous with prevailing events. And in the end the June 21 date, the basis for which it was difficult to discern, had to be pushed back for nearly a month.
Of course, Mr Johnson has consistently favoured rhetoric over reality, for example with the “unleashing Britain’s potential” characterisation of a very economically damaging and foolish Brexit.
Remember too last summer, when the Prime Minister declared it was time for people to be getting back into offices, at a point when it was clear the second wave of coronavirus was developing in some European countries? That did not happen either, for very good reasons relating to public health.
All of this brings to mind Rishi Sunak, another man who seems to have a penchant for bold, unconditional declarations, which have seen him have to U-turn dramatically.
Mr Sunak’s big stance through last summer and autumn around the coronavirus job retention scheme was remarkable. Remember, this was in the pre-vaccine days, yet the Chancellor was utterly insistent, on repeated occasions, that the taxpayer-backed furlough scheme would not be extended beyond October 31 last year.
A dramatic and very protracted U-turn, performed in stages, has seen the coronavirus job retention scheme extended until September this year.
And we should perhaps not be surprised, given his past performance, that Mr Sunak is insisting that it will end then, rather than embracing the reality of the continuing inability of key sectors to operate at anything like normal or even in some cases at all.
Mr Johnson’s seemingly evolving caution on the irreversibility question was also notable because it seemed in stark contrast to the packed Wembley Stadium for the Euro 2020 final in which England lost out to Italy in a penalty shoot-out.
So what did Mr Johnson say on Monday about his big final step on easing Covid-19 lockdown restrictions in England?
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The Prime Minister declared: “I hope that the roadmap is irreversible – we’ve always said that we hope that it will be irreversible – but in order to have an irreversible roadmap, we also said it’s got to be a cautious approach.”
This seemed to mark a clear change of tone.
And he also, thankfully, talked about a need for “constant vigilance” and “thinking about others as well as yourself”.
Back in February, Mr Johnson told Parliament: “We are embarking on a cautious but irreversible approach.”
This week, on the issue of whether the removal of restrictions now scheduled for July 19 in England would be irreversible, the Prime Minister declared: “We must rule nothing out.”
Sajid Javid, who has returned recently to the Cabinet as Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, has been banging the drum loudly for speedy reopening since taking up his post on June 26. But he too seems now to have toned down his bullishness on irreversibility. He had said, without hesitation, on June 28: “It’s going to be irreversible. There’s no going back.”
Mr Javid conceded this week that restrictions could return, if the “risk matrix” changed. This is, of course, a more sensible approach. However, it is a great pity that it was not present throughout and that Mr Johnson and members of his Cabinet for too long seemed to favour the big, bold statements which surely sent the wrong message to many, given the need for caution.
The Scottish Government approach has seemed more realistic, involving major reopening but with a focus on detail rather than gung-ho proclamations.
That is not to say that businesses have not on many occasions been frustrated by this approach. And greater clarity, especially around funding support, could have been provided earlier on some occasions.
Sometimes households and businesses in Scotland will have agreed with the detail and in other cases they will not, and obviously specific measures and timings are a matter for debate.
However, there has seemed to be more of a focus in Scotland on thought-through announcements, in contrast to bold proclamations from UK Government ministers about things which have proved unachievable.
Talking of thinking things through brings us back to the Chancellor, and what ongoing, substantial support he is going to provide for businesses, and households, in the weeks and months ahead which will hopefully because of vaccination be better than those behind us but will not be without difficulties.
The UK Government’s approach to this pandemic has been characterised far too often by a lack of joined-up thinking.
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Furlough numbers have, thankfully, reduced dramatically, but there is still a very significant number of people being supported by the coronavirus job retention scheme.
Things continue to look very difficult for a number of key sectors, such as a huge international travel industry taking in airports, airlines and ground-handling operations, travel agents and holiday companies.
And it is easy to see the huge challenges facing the likes of nightclubs and events businesses.
These problems will not have gone away by September, when the furlough scheme is due to end. And why would the UK Government favour an avoidable rise in unemployment?
Mr Sunak was last summer proposing measures to follow on from the furlough scheme that were wholly inadequate.
He needs to step up now with a coherent plan to support businesses and the economy in this very difficult part of the journey towards normality.
Such support will have to contain various elements, including an extension of some kind of furlough support at the very least for businesses and employees in sectors which continue to be affected most by the pandemic. He can even call it a different name to avoid being perceived to be making another U-turn if he wants – the important thing is the ongoing support.
Grant funding for businesses throughout the UK will also be required from the Johnson administration (distributed north of the Border through the Scottish Government). And we must also hope the banks play their part in supporting businesses which will have had to take on huge debt through no fault of their own. The UK Government will have a part to play, at the very least behind the scenes and possibly more directly, to make sure banks are supportive of borrowers.
Right now, as the September end-date for the furlough scheme approaches, a joined-up plan remains conspicuous by its absence.
The Tories’ own climbdowns from being quite so gung-ho about restrictions in England going for good surely only serve to highlight the need for a coherent way forward in terms of continuing support, in these most difficult and unpredictable of times.
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