Mark Smith: How to spot if someone you know is about to become a Yes voter

So first, the details of the poll. It was done by Panelbase for the Sunday Times and it found that, excluding don’t knows, 52% would vote to stay in the UK and 48% would vote for independence, four points down from April. The poll also showed 22% think independence will happen within five years, which is eight per cent down over the same period. John Curtice, king of psephologists, summed it up: the ardour for independence has cooled.

READ MORE: SNP: New data showing UK poorest in north west Europe proves independence case

The question is why and it’s here that you can spot the common factors and even play a little game with your friends and family. The factors divide into three broad groups: political, economic, and emotional, and you can easily apply them to people you know. All you need do is ask them four questions and, depending on their answers, you may be able to spot how vulnerable they are to Yes.

The first question is: how do you feel about Brexit? As we know, there’s always been a correlation between support for staying in the EU and support for independence, which is why one of the recent spikes for Yes was just after Brexit. But a recent poll for the i newspaper found 55% thought Brexit had helped the British response to Covid-19, particularly on vaccines, and if this represents a slight cooling of the anger on Brexit, it may also represent a slight cooling in support for independence. In other words, if someone isn’t feeling quite as negative about Brexit these days, they may not be feeling quite as motivated to support Scottish independence.

READ MORE: Poll suggests support for Scottish independence is at lowest level in two years

This explanation ties in with the second question you can ask people, which is: are you struggling financially? Essentially, if people feel reasonably secure – because, for example, they’ve got plenty of money or indeed they’ve had two jabs – then they are less likely to support uncertain projects like Scottish independence. The phenomenon was explained recently in a blog for the LSE by the political scientists Paul Whiteley and Harold Clarke: when times are bad, they said, people tend to support independence and when times improve, they are more inclined to oppose it.

Whiteley and Clarke demonstrated the process by citing a survey by DeltaPoll. The survey asked people if they’d had financial problems due to the pandemic and it was striking that support for independence was highest among those with the most serious financial problems; it may mean that people whose finances have been made worse by the pandemic have become more likely to support Yes. But we also know many people’s finances have improved – they’ve saved on commuting, for example, or sold their house, and that may have inclined those people against Yes. It may explain why the last big spike for Yes was at the start of the pandemic when the uncertainty was greatest for all of us.

Which leads to the third question, which is: how happy are you? Again, the survey cited by Whiteley and Clarke showed people with serious emotional problems such as anxiety, depression or suicidal thoughts, are more likely to support independence and you can see the logic: if you’re unhappy or suffering, you’re more likely to look for change, and independence may be part of the change you seek. Put another way: if you were fairly happy at the start of the pandemic and are unhappy now, you may have become more inclined to support independence.

The fourth, and final, question is ‘where do you live?’ which has become more relevant recently because of all the talk that any future independence referendum could include Scots who live elsewhere in the UK. What we know on this is that when the British Election study asked Scots living in England and Wales about independence, 78% said they would vote No, which is probably for the simple reason that Scots who’ve lived elsewhere see the positives of other countries as well as the relationships between them. So if you have a relative or friend who’s gone off to uni, or got a job somewhere else in the UK, they’ve probably become a bit less inclined to vote Yes.

I’m sure you’ll have seen some or all of these trends in people you know, but what makes pulling them all together tricky is that the pandemic and other upheavals like Brexit have affected people in very different ways. If you’ve fallen ill with Covid, or you’re running a business that’s been forcibly closed down, or your firm or job has been badly affected by Brexit, you may be feeling pretty unhappy and negative. You may want change and it’s possible your “No” may be turning into a “Yes”.

But many people are starting to feel more positive and there are signs we’re coming out of the worst. Businesses are opening, we’re seeing our friends and family, and the economy is starting to recover, and a changing situation changes opinions. If your answer to ‘How do you feel about Brexit?’ is ‘not as bad as before’ and your answer to ‘Are you having financial problems?’ is ‘no’ and your answer to ‘Are you happy?’ is ‘yes’ or even ‘fairly happy’, then you’re probably feeling less inclined to vote Yes.

READ MORE: Lesley Riddoch: Let's not kid ourselves that Hancock's exit really means anything

The conclusion to all of this is fairly obvious. As I said at the start, the Panelbase poll suggests support for Yes is dipping – to the lowest point for two years in fact – and if the economic, emotional and personal recovery continues, the support is likely to dip further. But the trend also creates a perverse incentive for the Yes campaign and Nicola Sturgeon: if they have any real hope of converting many voters from No to Yes and winning a referendum, they need to pray for a slow recovery or a downturn or another crisis. It is a sad but true fact of constitutional politics. Unhappy people are more likely to want change. Unhappy people are more likely to vote Yes.

Our columns are a platform for writers to express their opinions. They do not necessarily represent the views of The Herald.