Willie Rennie : Up for the fight

In 2011, a year into the UK Party’s toxic coalition with David Cameron’s Tories, the Scottish LibDems crashed from 16 MSPs to five, and have stayed there since. 

It was the year Mr Rennie took over as leader from a gutted Tavish Scott.

By 2015, the Scottish party was down to a single MP as the SNP tsunami removed ten of the 11-strong Westminster group, with only Alistair Carmichael clinging on in the Northern Isles.

Throughout it all, Mr Rennie was tiggerishly upbeat, sure that better results lay just over the horizon.

He’s exactly the same as he heads into his second Holyrood election in charge.

“I think we’re going to go up,” he says. “That’s what I believe. I really think we’re going to do well in this election campaign and we’re going to increase.” 

“I’m confident that our people will vote for us, and we’ll go up, we’ll gain more seats.”

Where? He mentions Argyll & Bute, which hasn’t been LibDem since 2007, although the retirement of the SNP’s Mike Russell could make it a long-shot gain.

The big constituency target is Caithness, Sutherland and Ross, where the SNP is defending a majority of 3,913 over the LibDems, and where the SNP incumbent, Gail Ross, has quit after a single term. 

“All the signs are it’s very positive up there,” he says, as he lavishes praise on candidate Molly Nolan. “It’s going really, really well.”

But the serious action is on the regional list system, where, despite an unusually crowded field, he reckons the LibDems could pick up three or four gains, with West Scotland, South Scotland and Glasgow the best prospects, followed by the east coast.

On one level, it’s the same old story, the same old Willie Rennie doing the same outlandish photo opportunities.

But this year he has a different, more plausible story to tell. The LibDems have been making gains of late. 

In 2017, they regained two of their Westminster seats from the SNP, and picked up a third in the 2019 general election. They also regained an MEP in the 2019 Euro elections, albeit not for long, as Brexit was imminent.

So Mr Rennie can point to some gradual hard-won successes to justify the schoolboy grin.

He also says the party has upped its campaign game, relentlessly targeting selected voters, regional list by regional list. “People who are more susceptible to us,” as he unnervingly describes them. 

Regular and potential LibDem voters can also feel they’re making a difference, he says.

“We genuinely think the difference between the SNP getting a majority or not is our seats.

“The campaign will be more effective than it’s been in previous years, when it’s been a bit of a blunderbuss and never quite hit the mark.

“This time round, the campaign is positive, I think we’ve tapped a mood [with the Recovery First message], we’ve given confidence to people who are tempted to vote for us, so we think we can do it.

“I always think I can win, but I am especially confident this time. 

“I think we’ve hit on something. The media stuff we’re doing is just markedly different from what the Tories and SNP are doing.”

Which brings us on to the other parties. 

Mr Rennie has been scathing recently about the Tories under Douglas Ross, accusing him of taking the party in a “dark”, even sinister direction.

He says he doesn’t want to go back over what he’s said about the Scottish Tory leader, but some riffs are too good to resist. 

The Tories are stoking an anger that threatens to harden an ugly divide in Scottish politics, he says, with one part of the population thinking another is beyond the pale.

If it keeps going, that divide will be “irreparable”, he warns. 

“The Conservatives are part of that problem. They’re not reaching out to win people over from the SNP, they’ve not got the slightest bit of interest in getting that.

“All they’re trying to do is beat Labour into second place. That is depressing. Surely you’ve got to have parties that are aspiring to something more than that?

“If they genuinely believed in keeping the United Kingdom together they would be trying to persuade people who currently believe in independence to come back. They’re not. 

“Not a jot of their effort is focused on that. That’s not good for Scottish politics.”

“Let’s make a positive case for change.”

As for the SNP, he says, perhaps surprisingly, that he’s enjoyed working with some ministers on the pandemic, citing Jeane Freeman, Kate Forbes and Fiona Hyslop.

“We would be in regular text exchange on things like how do we get tests for this group of workers, or make sure independent health professionals get vaccinated as a top priority. 

“Really quite fruitful engagement, and it showed what could be done if we put our differences aside.

"I think the more we do that we’ve got a better chance of healing that massive divided that exists.

"I think this election is the chance to understand people from the other side and to try and reach some sort of agreement to disagree on things, and put aside our differences on the constitution for now. Let’s see what we can do with the recovery together.”

Mr Rennie also senses the SNP are in trouble. 

“Our support is solid, and the SNP vote is softer than I’ve ever seen it,” he says. 

“It’s a combination of things. There’s a lack of enthusiasm [among SNP voters], the Alex Salmond stuff has poisoned things a bit, all the arguments, it’s taken the shine off things.

“It’s just made them feel as if the project is not as clean as it was.

“And pushing independence in the wake of a pandemic is definitely jarring.”

He suspects a lack of enthusiasm and a depressed turnout may be the SNP’s weak spot.

“I can’t quite see how Nicola is going to motivate people,” he says, comparing the current campaign with the 2019 general election, when the First Minister was a whirl of activity, had a clear and snappy message - Stop Brexit - and was up against Boris Johnson. 

Now, Brexit has happened, the PM is avoiding Scotland, and the SNP’s record is on trial. 

“On education, they’ve not performed well. On drugs [deaths], she’s not performed well. 

“The admission on [Covid-positive patients going to] care home was not a good thing.

“There’s a lot that’s disappointing for SNP voters, I would have thought.”

He cites the SNP’s recent Westminster-bashing party political broadcast as another ill-omen.

“It was quite a change of direction for the SNP, because they’ve always said everyone is dark and negative and they were positive. But their PPB was really dark.

"I thought that showed weakness, that they had to resort to the negative stuff to get people motivated, rather than the positive appeal of a bright new future.

“I think they’re struggling to understand how they’re going to motivate people to turn out. 

“I think they’re finding it difficult to get traction on something this time round, which is why they’re reaching for the negative.

"Because they’ve not got anything else.”

Talk of the SNP inevitably leads on to discussion of the constitutional question.

As has become standard for Unionist leaders in this election, he dodges the question of how Scots are supposed to get a second independence referendum if not by voting for it.

“I think this election is about making a decision about whether we have that debate,” he says.

“We need to focus on what it means - the next parliament could be dominated by independence for the next five years, or we could focus on recovery - and the democratic choice is to choose one of those two.

“The independence movement could dominate the next parliament, with all its factions arguing amongst themselves, whether they declare UDI, take to the streets, all that kind of stuff. You can have all of that or you can focus on recovery. 

“So I think we just fight this campaign now and focus on what we need to do and let people have a decision, and we can argue about all the other stuff later.”

He goes on: “Nicola, I think, has lost control of the independence movement. She used to have it completely in the palm of her hand. 

“She would be able to say, Hold on, we need to win people over, we’ve got to deal with the pandemic first, we’ve got to put independence aside. Or that we’re pushing ahead.

“She would determine the pace all the time, and they would go with her. That’s changed. 

“The next parliament, if [Alex Salmond] was to be elected, would be riddled with arguments between different factions of the Nationalist movement about how to pursue it.

“It would be a terrible thing because the parliament would be dominated by the internal Nationalist argument as well as the whole independence thing.”

Intriguingly, Mr Rennie, the last surviving party leader from Better Together in 2014, also drops a few hints about how Unionists quarrel with the SNP’s claim to have a mandate for Indyref2, saying “how legitimate it is” would not be straightforward.

“Of course there will be a stramash after the election if the SNP was to get a majority,” he says.

“Was it a valid, was it a clear result? Did Alex Salmond rig it? Is it the right time? 

“All of those debates will go on, I’m sure. The Conservative government at Westminster will have to decide what they want to do.

“But we don’t favour [Indyref2] at all and we will do what we’ve said to voters, which is to vote against it at every opportunity. We’re not in favour of it. We don’t think it’s the right time.”

So what does he see as a mandate? “There’s so many factors in that, isn’t there?” he says.

Are there? Surely it boils down to the arithmetic of the parliament? 

Not for Mr Rennie, it seems.

“It’s how it’s done, isn’t it?” he says. “It’s how clear. Because Nicola changes her message from time to time. She says, what you’re doing is electing me to lead the country. 

“She doesn’t put it [Indyref2] in her election address that goes through every door. 

“I’m not saying she’s ignoring it. Everybody knows they stand for independence.

“ But they know they put the foot on the gas and take it off from time to time. So they’re not always pushing it constantly. So it all depends on how the election is run and all that kind of stuff as to how legitimate it is. There’s the whole debate about the generation thing and how it’s done.”

Finally, there’s the Labour party to talk about. In the STV leaders debate, he and Anas Sarwar seemed to be playing political footsie, rolling soft questions to one another and marvelling at the other’s good ideas.

He doesn’t disagree, and laughs at being sent up for it in Radio 4’s The News Quiz.

“Labour and I have got disagreements," he says. “We’ve had disagreements on things like Brexit, we had several disagreements with Jeremy Corbyn.

“On social care, for instance, we don’t believe in a national care service. They disagreed with us on the centralisation of the police. There’s differences with us.

“The one thing we do agree about in this campaign is the priority being the recovery from the pandemic.

"I could fight that. I could hunt for differences here, there and everywhere.

“But actually I have comfort in saying we agree on the central proposition of the campaign, which is to put the divisions of independence behind us and focus on recovery.

“I think it’s a healthy part of this election campaign that Anas and myself clearly get on well together, and have got some elements of our campaign that are in common. That’s a good thing.”

So could there be an alliance to come? 

Mr Sarwar is hoping for a steady ascent to power, with  a modest start in May, then rebuilding his party into a credible contender for office by the 2026 election.

On that trajectory, the best Labour could hope for is to be the largest party, and would a face a choice of trying to govern as minority, as the SNP has twice, or forming a coalition with another party if the arithmetic was right, as Labour did with the LibDems from 1999 to 2007. What would Mr Rennie recommend?

“You need to build the foundations for that now if that’s going to happen. 

“I think we’ve started off on a path that’s encouraging.

“A lot might change along that route, there may be other events that come along, but I like to hunt for agreement with other parties where we can.

“Labour and ourselves have got a tradition of working in partnership. Eight years in the Scottish Parliament, we formed a coalition in Wales between Kirsty Williams [the LibDem education minister] and Labour down there.

“There’s a close alignment over time between our two parties. We’ve got different heritages. We appeal to different people in different parts of the country. There’s a distinct identity for each party. But I think the potential is there for us to work together in the future. 

“What form that is, I don’t know. But I would like to see the progressive, pro-UK side gain in strength and I think we’re part of that, and I think Labour are part of that.

“I think people are sick to the back teeth of the massive chasm that exists in Scottish politics that never existed before. I know there’s always been feisty politics, but it’s never been quite like this before. Getting a brick thrown through our window in the office is not a good thing. All of that just needs to stop.

“So who knows where it goes, but I know that for Scotland to be in a better place longer term, we need the progressive pro-UK forces to be stronger.”

But if there was such an alliance after 2026, surely Mr Rennie wouldn’t still be leader. Isn’t he planning to give it up before then and let someone else do the job?

“I just think of Joe Biden,” he laughs. The US President, at 78, is 25 years his senior. 

“You can tell I love it. I love election campaigns. 

“Although the debate in Scotland is poisonous, just being there, trying to influence on Brexit, on independence, on the SNP getting a majority, all of these things is a great time to be involved in it all, so who would give that up? I love it.”

But if he doesn’t improve his MSP numbers after two Holyrood elections, doesn’t he have a duty to move on?

“I think we’re going to go up. That’s what I believe. I really think we’re going to do well in this election campaign, and we’re going to increase.”

He would say that. But sometimes even optimists are correct.