THERE has been a lot of nonsense from the Brexiters in the years since the Leave vote. So, so many vacuous declarations.
While inured to most of this chatter by now, occasionally things come along that are utterly exasperating. And so it has been with a message that has emanated from the Brexit camp in recent days about warnings over the impact of leaving the European Union having been false because nothing bad happened after the clocks chimed 11pm last Friday.
Many Leavers were in unbelievably jubilant form last Friday night. However, what they were celebrating at that stage, whether they knew it or not, was actually Brexit-in-name-only, with the UK entering an 11-month transition period, during which everything pretty much remains the same.
With Boris Johnson at the helm with a big majority, they will get their longed-for, economically damaging, hard Brexit soon enough. After all, the Prime Minister has promised the Brexit brigade the UK will leave the European single market by the end of this year. There will be no extension to the transition period, he says, with his usual “no matter what”-type messaging that seems to mirror what is in vogue on the other side of the Atlantic. And the Brexiters have lapped up this messaging.
It is unclear whether those making declarations about the world still turning, or things not falling apart, or whatever, are merely trying to wind up the pro-Europeans in the UK, or whether their lack of understanding is so great that they actually believe the absence of drama at 11pm last Friday means that everything is okay. It is difficult to tell.
There has been plenty of playground-style name-calling from the Brexit camp, labelling those who wanted to stay in the EU as “Remoaners”, while claiming such people are “crying” over the outcome and also generating memes to this effect for social media.
These antics perhaps suggest the vacuous stuff emanating from some quarters about nothing having happened last Friday night is just a deliberate attempt to cause further irritation to those who recognise the huge benefits of EU membership in the form of free movement of people and frictionless trade. But who knows? You get the impression that some people actually believe that the move to “get Brexit done”, that phrase peddled by Mr Johnson and adviser Dominic Cummings to such great effect ahead of the December 12 General Election, marks an end of this matter rather than the real start of it.
No serious commentators were forecasting an immediate hit on January 31, given this merely marked the start of the transition period.
Getting Brexit done will not be an end of the matter just because someone says it is. Just as UK economic growth will not double just because Chancellor Sajid Javid hopes it will. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has this week opined that Mr Javid has only a one-in-five chance of succeeding with his aim of doubling annual UK growth to around 2.75 per cent.
READ MORE: Ian McConnell: A week for sober thought as Brexiter toasts British wine and Leavers prepare to party
NIESR principal economist Arno Hantzsche said: “The chancellor’s aim of raising growth towards the post-war average – nearly 3% – is quite unrealistic.”
All the while, the dismal reality of the UK’s situation continues to play out.
Mr Johnson might be wooing the hard-line Brexiters with his big talk about not accepting EU regulations. However, sterling has fallen back below $1.30 as he has fuelled fears of a no-deal Brexit with his noisy start to the transition period.
The Prime Minister has this week flagged his view there will be “no need” for a free-trade agreement to involve the UK accepting EU rules on competition policy, subsidies, social protection, the environment or “anything similar”. Mr Johnson’s comments were in line with those from Mr Javid last month. Mr Javid told the Financial Times: “There will not be alignment, we will not be a ruletaker, we will not be in the single market and we will not be in the customs union – and we will do this by the end of the year.”
Tough talk from a UK Government that says it wants to secure a deep free-trade agreement with the EU by the year-end. And maybe also counter-productive to the Conservatives’ stated aim?
The pound traded around $1.31 as voters went to the polls on December 12. It then spiked above $1.35 in the wake of an exit poll published immediately after the polling stations closed at 10pm, which showed a clear Conservative majority. It has fallen sharply since, as financial markets have assessed realities.
There are plenty of real-world examples of the impact of Brexit, for anyone who cares to look. The potential of the UK economy has, of course, already been hampered very significantly by a plunge in net immigration from other EU countries. This is even before Mr Johnson implements his moves to “bear down” on immigration.
And indicators suggest the UK economy ground to a halt or perhaps even contracted in the fourth quarter of last year, amid Brexit uncertainty. Business investment has tumbled, and festive retail sales were weak as consumers reined in spending.
A survey published yesterday by the University of Strathclyde’s Fraser of Allander Institute and law firm Addleshaw Goddard shows Scottish companies’ export activity and capital investment fell in the fourth quarter. Firms expect export activity to continue to fall and capital investment to stagnate in the first half of 2020. On Brexit, the survey notes: “Despite the [December 12] election alleviating some uncertainty, businesses appear to be exhibiting cautious behaviour as they postpone new business projects and hiring new staff.”
Glasgow-based Allied Vehicles’ revelation in its accounts that it has been researching setting up a manufacturing operation in mainland Europe, if future tariffs prove unpalatable, highlights the reality the Leavers seem keen to obscure.
This reality is, of course, that most of the big decisions by companies relating to the UK’s ill-judged departure from this powerful trading bloc are yet to be made and announced, just as the economic effects of Brexit will manifest themselves over years and decades. If Mr Johnson takes us to a cliff-edge at the year-end, the short-term impact will be more dramatic, but the effect of leaving the EU will be grim and protracted either way.
Glasgow-based Allied, which produces mobility vehicles and wheelchair-accessible taxis and is a key employer with more than 700 staff at its site on the north side of the city, lodged its accounts with Companies House on Brexit Day.
Its directors, writing in the accounts, highlight significant growth of an international division selling wheelchair-accessible vehicles into Europe. They say: “We see significant future growth in this area...and barring any Brexit tariff issues, we will continue to expand.”
However, they add that “should any tariff issues become punitive” post-Brexit, the company will look to assemble vehicles in the EU bloc. The directors reveal they “have already undertaken considerable research in this area”.
Chief executive Gerry Facenna signalled Poland was the most likely location for a European base, while expressing hopes that “common sense” would prevail in talks between the UK and EU.
Given what has gone on in recent years, common sense might be a big ask.
But Messrs Johnson and Javid should recognise many other businesses the length and breadth of the UK will have undertaken similar research.
And those name-calling Brexiters who seem focused on nothing bad having happened last Friday might want to appraise themselves of the realities of the UK’s Brexit decision.
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