Package holiday giant and airline Jet2’s latest results made for fascinating reading.
The general tone around the economy, notably including from the new Labour Government, has been gloomy to say the least.
And households continue to suffer from the permanent effects of the UK’s inflation crisis, even though the rate of increase of prices has now slowed to a less-eye-watering pace.
It will feel for many households as if they have not really got back on the front foot since the global financial crisis, following 14 miserable years under the Conservatives and with the incoming Labour administration having hardly been a ray of sunshine so far.
For many millions of households, disposable income is in much shorter supply than it was.
At times like these, if you are selling consumer goods or services reliant on discretionary spending, your fortunes are dictated in large part by what households choose to prioritise.
Which brings us back nicely to Jet2’s results.
It is worth noting that, in the context of holiday companies and airlines, there has been another major force at play in recent years: that lengthy period amid the coronavirus pandemic during which overseas travel was either completely banned or so restricted that it was too difficult or uncertain.
In terms of psychology, it is hardly surprising to see so many people desperate to make up for lost time and finally embarking on the travel dreams which were dashed by the pandemic.
So the very strong rebound, after overseas travel normalised from early 2022 onwards, was no surprise at all.
Since then, of course, we have had plenty more misery for household finances, notably the full horror of the inflation crisis. This saw annual UK consumer prices index inflation climb to a 41-year high of 11.1% in October 2022. Some of the factors driving the spike were global in nature but the UK’s peculiar inflation woe has been in no small part related to Brexit.
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So how are consumers feeling about holidays and their importance, relative to other types of discretionary spending, right now?
Steve Heapy, chief executive of Jet2, declared: “Even in difficult economic times, the annual overseas holiday remains a highly valued and eagerly anticipated experience, often taking precedence over other discretionary spend.”
And this talk was certainly borne out by Jet2’s results, and the detail within them.
Shares in Jet2 climbed nearly 6% on Thursday after the company revealed it was on track to deliver full-year profits ahead of City expectations, and highlighted a rise in its package prices.
Jet2 reported a 16% rise in pre-tax profits before foreign exchange revaluation to £772.4 million for the six months to September 30. And it was upbeat about the outlook.
It reported that average package holiday pricing remained “resilient”, increasing by 6% to £904 per person in the six months to September from £855 in its previous first half “as supply-led inflationary increases were passed on”.
The company declared: “With a material amount of the winter 2024/25 season still to sell, we are currently on track to deliver group profit before FX revaluation and taxation for the year ending 31 March 2025 ahead of market expectations, assuming no material extraneous events in the remainder of the financial year.”
It added that “based on company-compiled consensus, the board believes the current average market expectations for group profit before FX revaluation and taxation for the year ending 31 March 2025 to be £541m”.
The pattern of Jet2’s profits reflect the seasonal patterns of its trading.
And the company naturally observed that “as is typical for the group, losses are to be expected in the second half of the financial year”.
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The most eye-catching points in last week’s results were Jet2’s declaration that it expected full-year profits to be ahead of expectations and the strength of its pricing.
The rise in the average package holiday price per person is the kind of increase that many others competing for the consumer pound would love to be able to achieve in these tough economic times.
And Jet2 achieved this while delivering, as it described it, “another record performance in terms of passenger numbers, revenues and profitability”.
Underlining the strength of the results, Mr Heapy declared: “We are delighted to have delivered another record financial performance during the first half of the year.”
Budget airline Ryanair, even when it earlier this month reported a sharp fall in first-half profits on the back of lower fares, seemed upbeat about the outlook. It flagged “strong” demand for the third quarter of its financial year. Its third quarter runs from October to December.
Ryanair said: “Forward bookings suggest that Q3 demand is strong and the decline in pricing appears to be moderating.”
British Airways, Aer Lingus and Iberia owner International Airlines Group earlier this month also flagged the strength of demand for travel. When it announced third-quarter results on November 8, IAG declared: “Demand remains strong in all our core markets.”
It flagged buoyant demand for leisure travel.
Luis Gallego, chief executive of IAG, said: “Demand remains strong across our airlines and we expect a good final quarter of 2024 financially.”
IAG noted: “The increase in passenger revenue of 1,796 million euros, or 9.2%, was ahead of the increase in passenger capacity of 6.9%, driven by higher yields…together with higher passenger load factors.
“These improvements led to an increase in passenger unit revenue, measured as passenger revenue per ASK (available seat kilometre), of 2.2%. The growth in passenger revenue was linked to the increase in capacity and continued strong leisure demand.”
The upbeat tones of Jet2 and IAG are most encouraging, and Ryanair’s outlook seemed positive enough.
This is good news not just for the shareholders of these companies, but crucially also for the airports out of which they operate, including those in Scotland, and the economies around them.
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