The annual tradition of complaining that Christmas starts earlier every year has, without a hint of irony, started earlier this year.

I won’t hear a word of it. Dark nights, cold mornings, sky-high heating bills: this time of year is depressing enough without the “there are 12 days of Christmas, none of them in November” brigade moaning about people out enjoying themselves.

For key industries, the last three months of the calendar year are known as the “golden quarter” for a reason.

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Besides the obvious pleasures of catching up with friends and treating loved ones, these weeks are critical for many independent businesses. The profits made between now and the end of December will tide them over in the quieter months of January and February. December takings can make the difference between keeping the doors of an independent business open or not.

That is particularly true for shops, bars and restaurants, many of whom have had another torrid year following on from the trials of Covid, inflation and the cost-of-living crisis.

Thankfully, there have been some signs of shoppers slowly returning to the high street in recent months. That is definitely good news, but extra footfall is only one part of the equation. It doesn’t always translate to extra customer spending, and that extra spending doesn’t always mean bigger profits.

Indeed, one independent retailer was telling us how he had just experienced three of his best months for sales in more than 10 years. Happy days you would think, but no. He’s not making money and has had to take two pay cuts this year. “The money comes in and it goes out,” he said, “but none of it sticks to the sides.”

He is far from alone. Many small businesses are being squeezed by a combination of rising costs and customers being cautious about spending. Most of their essential expenses are going up, from fuel and the goods they need to buy in, to rent and the cost of employing staff.

Our latest FSB research shows costs went up for three quarters of Scotland’s small businesses in the last quarter, with the majority seeing increases of at least triple the official rate of inflation, and for many, much higher still. Among the hardest squeezed are retail, leisure and hospitality – industries which rely heavily on staffing and customers’ discretionary spending.

That is one of the reasons why festive trade is not the only make-or-break issue facing many independent operators in the next couple of weeks. There will also be many anxious eyes on next week’s Scottish Budget.

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For example, as has been widely reported, non-domestic rates relief was extended yet again for retail, leisure and hospitality businesses in England in last month’s UK Budget. Cafes, bars, restaurants and local high street stores south of the Border are getting a 40% reduction in their rates, worth billions of pounds in total, in clear recognition of the particular pressures they are facing.

Sadly, similar rates relief has not been available to their Scottish counterparts since July 2022. And, such is the current state of things, failure to pass on the same support north of the border is likely to lead to more shutters being pulled down for good.

More generally, smaller firms will be looking for the safeguarding of the Small Business Bonus Scheme. This protects enterprises up and down the country by reducing their rates bills, taking many of them out of paying rates altogether.

Although the number of properties which benefit has reduced following recent changes to the scheme, it remains an invaluable shelter from the ongoing economic storms for many. Business owners describe it as a lifeline which allows them to keep going when times are tough and cashflow is tight.  Any further erosion of the scheme must be resisted.

So the stakes are high. But as Finance Secretary Shona Robison finalises her budget statement, there’s a silver lining in the shape of the £3.4 billion in Barnett consequentials coming to Scotland as a result of the UK Budget.

There will, of course, be the usual debate about how free a hand she has in spending it. But the fact is that funds are there and the choice must be to use them for backing the small firms who are such a mainstay of jobs and communities across the country. Protecting such firms now will put them in a position to drive the economic growth that will be so vital in the months ahead.

Colin Borland is director of devolved nations for the Federation of Small Businesses