Whisper it, but things may not be quite as bad as you think.

If you’ve spent the last week feeling as if you can’t face the news, so alarming are the implications of Donald Trump’s re-election, then allow me to inject a tiny bit of hope – on climate change, of all things.

Negotiators from 196 countries meet in Azerbaijan this week at the COP29 climate conference. The world is already badly behind the curve when it comes to cutting the climate emissions that cause global heating and future American obstructionism will make matters worse.

Donald Trump’s appalling cynicism – “drill, baby drill” – could not be worse timed. Depending on how far he goes in attacking America’s green transition, it could result in billions more tonnes of carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere than would otherwise have done.

Deadly flooding in South Sudan, Chad, Spain and Germany; forest fires in Australia, Greece and California; drought and famine in Somalia and Yemen; polar ice melt; deadly hurricanes battering the US eastern seaboard: every continent is already affected by climate change.

The world’s forests are already less able to sequester carbon dioxide than they once were due to extreme heat, forest fires, drought and disease, and there will come a point where they can no longer do so. Without concerted action to drive down emissions, the world will reach a tipping point, a trigger for runaway climate change, perhaps later this century.

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It’s a scenario described with unimpeachable scientific accuracy by the former chair of the James Hutton Institute, Prof James Curran, as “terrifying”.

Donald Trump’s approach makes it more likely.

But on this most critical of issues, Trump already looks like yesterday’s man. Climate scientists point out that the rest of the world has managed to advance action against climate change twice before without the US administration, under both George W Bush and Trump 1.0, and they will push ahead again now.

And this time they will be assisted by market forces.

Dr Richard Dixon is the former head of Friends of the Earth Scotland, a veteran campaigner on climate change and a long-time observer of international climate diplomacy. He is not given to unwarranted optimism about it, but he points to the “pure economics” now driving the accelerating transition away from fossil fuels. There are jobs and investment in renewables, and Trump’s climate scepticism won’t change that.

People flee the recent flooding in ValenciaPeople flee the recent flooding in Valencia (Image: PA)

China, most importantly, is the world leader in producing solar photovoltaic panels which it is selling in huge markets like India. “When the US is off in a fossil fuel bywater, China will dominate the market,” says Dr Dixon.

Ed Miliband, the energy security and net zero secretary, says he believes the transition to renewables is “unstoppable”. “What’s changed so much is that the economics have moved in the direction of the ethics,” is how he puts it.

Of course Donald Trump’s energy policy will do real damage. As well as increasing carbon emissions and encouraging oil states to put their heads in the sand, Dr Dixon anticipates that it will embolden Big Oil to lobby even harder around the world for continued exploration.

But in many countries, that argument has already been lost.

The UK’s global leadership is now more than an empty boast, Prof Curran believes, with the Starmer government representing a “counterbalance to the US”.

The UK has some credibility, as the first country in the world to have a Climate Change Act and to commit to net zero by 2050. The Starmer government approach of explaining the benefits of the green transition to voters by stressing job creation, more investment, lower bills, improved energy security and cleaner air, is now being closely watched by other governments.

Collectively, there are a sizeable number of nations who are committed to this track and Prof Curran believes the answer for them now is to form their own club, alongside COP, to build further confidence in the transition and show up the laggards.

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“There are 196 countries involved in COP and every decision has to be by complete consensus,” he says. “That means it comes down to the lowest common denominator and there are no penalties for not doing what you said you would do.” If international credit ratings agencies gave better scores to nations that took climate action to future-proof themselves, it would incentivise change, he suggests.

Prof Curran can foresee a parallel “community of progressives”, including Britain and even China, eventually winning the argument by reaping the benefits of moving to cleaner energy systems.

These alliances are already emerging, alongside COP. The Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA) is made up of 14 nations, including oil and gas producers like Denmark and Spain, committed to phasing out fossil fuel production. Meanwhile, the global movement for a Fossil Fuel Non-Profileration Treaty, to complement the Paris Agreement with a binding plan to end coal, oil and gas expansion, is gaining momentum daily, though a treaty is likely to be some way off. Crucially, Washington State and California are already affiliated with BOGA and are likely to remain so once Trump takes office.

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It underlines the limitations of Washington’s power.

So what role for Scotland in all of this?

The Scottish Government has come in for sustained criticism for boasting about its world-beating climate targets while repeatedly falling far short of achieving them. Worryingly, Stephen Flynn, widely tipped as a future SNP leader, has signalled he is in favour of more oil and gas exploration.

Dr Dixon expresses his disappointment in the SNP, who are now outflanked on climate policy by Labour and its determined net zero secretary Ed Miliband, while Prof Curran, a former chief executive of SEPA, says he has become “really fed up” with the broken promises.

It is the forthcoming presidency of Donald Trump, however, that is casting the darkest shadow. That it will harm global efforts to tackle climate change is baked in, like a deer skull in the dust of Death Valley.

But it can’t stop what has become a self-perpetuating global race to net zero between the world’s other nations.

It’s just a scintilla of hope.

Rebecca McQuillan is a freelance journalist specialising in politics and Scottish affairs. She can be found on X at @BecMcQ