Those who were disappointed when First Minister John Swinney said in May that the SNP Government would ease off on the visionary talk and focus on action will be pleased that September looks set to be a big month for strategy announcements.
Deputy FM Kate Forbes and energy secretary Gillian Martin have set the ball rolling by unveiling a Green Industrial Strategy amid fanfare.
This is expected to be followed soon by publication of the final version of the energy strategy that the Scottish Government published in January last year following long delays.
Some would think it would have made sense for the order to be the other way around.
It would be good to know what kind of energy system ministers think Scotland needs before they finalise a plan to develop the industries required to support it. However, Scottish Governments since the Alex Salmond days have liked to be seen as willing to defy convention.
A spokesperson said last week that no date has been set for publication of the energy strategy or the revamped Just Transition plan which is being developed alongside it.
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In March, a Holyrood committee highlighted big concerns about the original Just Transition plan launched by former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in 2021 and how little had been achieved under it.
The Green Industrial Strategy may not have done much to boost confidence that Mr Swinney will do any better than Ms Sturgeon or her successor Humza Yousaf.
The document majors on boosterish talk about Scotland’s green energy opportunity which has a very familiar ring to it.
Noting that Scotland has pledged to deliver a just transition to net zero by 2045, it declares: “This mission requires an economic transformation. It also presents huge economic opportunities that go beyond Scotland’s long held status as an energy powerhouse.
“Seizing the opportunity for Scotland to play a leading role in the emerging global net zero energy economy offers a route to creating highly-skilled, well-paid jobs with economic and social value. This will offer opportunities, amongst others, to those in the oil and gas industry and over time, has the potential to provide even more jobs than North Sea oil and gas has today.”
The future for the oil and gas industry looks increasingly uncertain with Chancellor Rachel Reeves planning to impose big tax increases on the sector. SNP Governments led by Ms Sturgeon and Mr Yousaf opposed plans for field developments that could support thousands of jobs.
READ MORE: Mad North Sea tax hike will cost UK billions warns oil industry big gun
The Green Industrial Strategy identifies five ‘opportunities’ on which ministers plan to focus to make the most of Scotland’s advantages and in which it is thought the government can have most impact.
These are: Wind power; carbon capture utilisation and storage; Green economy professional and financial services; Hydrogen and building the clean ‘Energy Intensive Industries’ of the future.
The priorities will sound sensible to some but hugely contentious to others.
The strategy puts huge faith in carbon capture utilisation and storage which is unproven at scale and which environmental campaigners fear will be used to justify continued production of oil and gas.
The hydrogen industry is also in its very early stages.
READ MORE: Cost inflation hits hopes for hydrogen in Scotland
The development of carbon capture and hydrogen networks on the scale envisaged by Mr Swinney’s team will require huge investment by the UK Government, which will ultimately be funded by taxpayers across the country.
True to Scottish Government form, the Green Industrial Strategy identifies what actions might be required in broad terms without detailing specifics such as dates.
Critics fear it may already be too late.
CBI chief executive Rain Newton-Smith told the employers’ organisation’s dinner in Glasgow: “Though Scotland has made huge progress in pioneering the concept of a just transition and setting one of the most ambitious net zero targets in the world, the truth is, on green growth, we’re not where we need to be.”
She added: “Since 2020 we’ve fallen down the league tables, behind France and Germany. We’ve lost our first-mover advantage in green growth markets to vast economic stimulus packages from the US and China.”
Ms Newton-Smith highlighted UK Government failings. However, the Scottish Government has implied that the noise it has made about the Just Transition has shown it is addressing the challenge more effectively than the Westminster administration and in a way that boosts the case for independence.
Friends of the Earth Scotland just transition campaigner Rosie Hampton was scathing about the Green Industrial Strategy which she said was “late and lightweight”.
She complained: “It’s lacking the ideas, policy, concrete timelines, or the investment needed.”
Following recent attacks by Mr Salmond on his successors, the launch of the strategy marks the latest chapter in a delusional saga which he started after becoming First Minister in 2007.
Mr Salmond famously claimed Scotland could become the Saudi Arabia of the marine renewables business, shortly before wave and tidal power firms on which his government’s hopes were focused went under.
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In July 2010 he launched a plan to develop offshore energy manufacturing clusters around ports such as Leith and Hunterston, which he reckoned would support more than 5,000 jobs.
“The [£223m] National Renewables Infrastructure Plan outlines the steps required to realise our ambition and to establish Scotland as a premier destination for the manufacture and installation of offshore renewable energy devices,” said Mr Salmond at the time.
“This infrastructure plan demonstrates the huge economic rewards of strengthening our offshore and marine energy industries and marks another positive step towards creating a low carbon, sustainable Scotland.”
Life, however, proved to be more complicated than expected.
In the announcement of the initiative the then director of trade body Scottish Renewables, Andrew Jamieson, said: “This plan sets a platform for quick action. Investment will be led by the private sector but with early public sector commitment to co-invest Scotland can make these highly prized jobs real, building on what has already been done at Machrihanish with Skykon and Energy Park Fife with BiFAB."
The Skykon turbine production operation went into administration in January 2011. Predictions that BiFAB would become a major player in the market to produce structures for offshore windfarms proved to be seriously over-optimistic.
READ MORE: Scottish investment giant faces huge challenge under new chief executive
After the business went into administration in 2020, the Scottish Government was accused of not doing enough to support it. Ministers said their hands were tied by European Union rules on state aid.
BiFAB’s yards at Methil in Fife and Arnish on the west coast were given some hope after being bought out by the parent of the Harland & Wolf shipbuilding business. However, employees are facing fresh uncertainty after Harland & Wolff sustained heavy losses leaving the group facing a fight for survival.
All this came after an update on Mr Salmond’s green infrastructure plan published by Ms Sturgeon’s administration in 2015 insisted the initiative should help secure Scotland's place at the forefront of the global offshore wind industry.
“The fund is expected to leverage significant private sector investment in the next three years and help deliver an estimated 28,000 jobs and £7.1 billion in value to Scotland's economy over the coming decade,” crowed the Scottish Government then.
In this month’s strategy announcement the Scottish Government highlighted the need to develop clusters in a way that made clear there remain major weaknesses in terms of key facilities such as ports and fabrication yards.
READ MORE: SNP minister highlights windfall tax benefit for Scotland
The strategy included an apparent recognition that Scotland hasn’t created anywhere near the number of jobs predicted in announcements made since the SNP took charge. However, while the Scottish Government appeared to sound a relatively sober note in keeping with Mr Swinney’s demeanour it still offered hope for the dreamers.
The strategy concluded: “Based on evidence available across a number of individual studies, Scotland’s Offshore wind supply chain could support between 10,400 - 54,000 jobs in the coming decades.”
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