THE Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC), independent of the Scottish administration but accountable to Holyrood, was founded in 2017. It publishes annual five-year forecasts for Scotland’s financial performance. In 2024, it has caused a stir by predicting that Scotland has a "challenge in balancing its budget", which is putting it mildly ("SNP spending choices will lead to ‘difficult decisions’", The Herald, August 28). Even more of a stir results from its judgment that "much of the pressure comes from the Scottish Government’s own decisions". Its findings have culminated in the emergency spending controls imposed by Shona Robison for 2024-25.
This should not have been a surprise to anyone. In February 2020, the SFC reported that the Scottish regime was "facing a £555 million funding gap that will force it to consider spending cuts". In December 2021, the SFC warned that a funding gap of £750 million would have to be bridged by spending cuts. Then in September 2022, Professor John McLaren predicted that Scotland would generate by 2026 £1.5 billion less in revenues as a result of the partial devolution of income tax. All the signs were there, yet the Scottish Government continued to spend, spend, spend: on £6 million for the failed mobile phones for prisoners scheme, many more millions on the failed DRS and on free bus travel for under-22s and plans also for free bus travel for asylum seekers, for example.
So here we are, in a dire position which, according to Dr João Sousa of the respected Fraser of Allander Institute, is because "lack of prudent planning forced [Ms] Robison to impose emergency spending controls". Pay policy, or the lack of it, is partly responsible, but at the root is the failure of the SNP Government to expect the unexpected, that is, to omit contingency planning. Now the result is that funding will be withdrawn mid-year where it can be withdrawn, without any rationale beyond saving money.
We are here because we are ruled by SNP politicians who have no conception of the Law of Unintended Consequences and who seem to believe that where there’s a will, there’s a way. The current disaster into which they have dragged us shows the fallaciousness of that maxim.
Jill Stephenson, Edinburgh.
Read more letters
- Why can't the English learn to stand on their own two feet?
- If Yes had won, Scotland could have pulled together under Salmond
Reeves just doesn't understand
RACHEL Reeves says the Scottish Government is “as guilty” as the Conservatives of spending beyond its means, but she obviously doesn’t understand the limitations of the current devolution settlement as any Scottish government has to balance its books on an annual basis and has minute borrowing powers.
And for those who believe in GERS, the deficit in Wales is three times higher than in Scotland with much poorer public services after 25 years of Labour control.
The Scottish block grant depends on UK spending in devolved areas which can change throughout the year and this uncertainty puts any Scottish government in a very difficult position. Down south, Labour blames the Tories for only budgeting for a two per cent increase in public workers’ pay awards, which was reflected in the Scottish block grant.
Throughout the recent election campaign, Anas Sarwar promised no austerity and like his Westminster counterparts dismissed reports of a £22 billion black hole facing any incoming UK government. He also seems to forget regularly demanding that the SNP spend more money on such as quadrupling the Scottish Child Payment, increasing the winter fuel payment, universal free school meals plus a council tax freeze, to mention but a few.
Like the IFS, leading economists such as Danny Blanchflower claim that Labour has not done any serious analysis to prove that continued austerity is the way to economic growth and it is no surprise that many Labour voters, not least pensioners, now regret their General Election choice.
By remaining outside the EU, the UK will crawl along in the slow growth lane dragging Scotland, which voted against leaving, with it. Meanwhile, what happened to Labour’s promise to “reset devolution” to “near federalism” for Scotland?
Mary Thomas, Edinburgh.
Losing out on our renewables
IT'S great news that the UK's "most productive onshore wind farm" is coming on stream ("UK’s ‘most productive wind farm’ completed", The Herald, August 29).
The Viking project in Shetland can generate enough power for almost half a million homes.
But can the 23,000 population of Shetland, shivering in the winter to come, expect cheaper bills? Will the rest of Scotland benefit? Not a chance.
The electricity generated will however be welcomed by our neighbours in England, the executives and shareholders at SSE and the bank tellers at Westminster.
Scotland lost out on the oil bonanza more than 40 years ago. Now it could waste the huge potential revenues from the renewables energy industry too.
You just have to look across the North Sea to Norway to see what can be achieved. The government there ploughs the profits back from the country's natural resources for the benefit of its people in terms of health, education, housing and altogether a better standard of living.
We could do that here in Scotland if we ran our own country, and that doesn't necessarily mean with an SNP government.
If we had the courage to take our destiny into our own hands then all political parties would have to compete to lead Scotland forward.
Andy Stenton, Glasgow.
Follow Poland? No thank you
STAN Grodynski (Letters, August 29) ask us whether the English have lost the confidence to break from the Union. It’s a fair question but he then carefully selects examples of countries which have gained independence across Europe.
He manages to slip in Poland which escaped Russian control after glasnost. He states that Poland “exemplifies” being independent based on their successful economy.
This is typical of nationalists using questionable examples to suit their argument. Has Mr Grodynski ever listened to the Polish PM or Foreign Minister explaining their position on immigration? Has he ever listened to their position on the state and religion?
The SNP and the Greens would be horrified at the suggestion that we copy their policies to improve our economy. If they listen to their view on the EU it will end them.
John Gilligan, Ayr.
A short honeymoon
THAT was indeed a short honeymoon. I voted Labour but even as I did so I had my own reservations. For example, I found the appointment of Ed Miliband in Energy as baffling and that of David Lammy as Foreign Secretary, equally so; the wrong signals were being emitted from the word go.
My reservations are beginning to show that they had some substance. For example, as some old people may be struggling with energy bills, Ed Miliband could confirm that £11.1 billion would still go into the financial black hole of ''fighting climate change'' overseas.
Any new government deserves a decent chance and the time for its policies to take root; after all the Tories had 14 years to run the UK and in Scotland the SNP had longer and still we went backwards by some distance. But I never thought that so soon we would be asking a Labour government such deep and fundamental questions with regard to priorities.
Alexander McKay, Edinburgh.
Starmer should pass on the baton
IF ever we needed someone to enthuse people, it is right now and all we got from Prime Minister Keir Starmer was gloom ("I never promised you a rose garden... PM’S ‘pain’ warning", The Herald, August 28).
Anyone who knows anything about getting the best endeavours from a workforce would not tell them "we're all doomed". Keir Starmer, who can't make a speech without referring to notes, has been engaged with desperate people all his working life and is not well prepared for lifting spirits so should avoid making public statements, which means he should resign and pass the baton on to a more able person (if there is one).
Stan Hogarth, Strathaven.
• WILLIAM Loneskie (Letters, August 29) is spot on. Labour looks on the dark side of everything. It is the dead hand that reduces morale and misses opportunities. Negativity is in its blood.
Malcolm Parkin, Kinross.
Keir Starmer during his press conference in the Downing Street rose garden on Tuesday (Image: PA)
What's wrong with populism?
I WAS mystified by the various derogatory references to “populism” by the Prime Minister in his rose garden speech when talking about the recent riots, which he blamed on the previous Tory Government for causing what he called “snake oil populism", whatever that is. He also referred to the “cynical conflict of populism" and the “spiral of populism" without clarifying what he meant.
In my ignorance, I thought “populism" meant something which was popular with the general public and which in effect reflected the will of the people. Google appears to agree. Clearly Sir Keir Starmer is not a fan of “populism”, which is a wee bit concerning in a Prime Minister who, like it or not, in a democracy is the servant of the people rather than the other way round.
Alan Fitzpatrick, Dunlop.
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