There are those who at times seem determined at every opportunity to present Scotland as an unattractive place in which to invest, and some of them even appear to delight in so doing.
They are a noisy bunch, producing a cacophony and attracting attention disproportionate to their numbers.
Their narrative is a familiar one - it is all the Scottish Government’s fault and the SNP has put people off investing in Scotland.
This carping is often heard in the context of property investment. And it frequently seems to come from a desire to ensure unfettered returns, for example in the build-to-rent market, or is triggered by a certain political viewpoint, or both.
And the noise is so persistent and so loud that people unfamiliar with the details could be forgiven for taking it as gospel.
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Thankfully, there are enough hard facts and figures to enable people to form their own view of the state of the property market in Scotland, if they can concentrate amid the near-deafening volume from the lobbyists and the politically motivated.
Much of this volume has been around build-to-rent activity, although the narrative is applied more generally to the Scottish property sector and to investment in the nation more generally.
Of course, a look for example at the rental market from tenants’ point of view, in terms of cost and other onerous factors, should also leave people in no doubt that there is another side to the story.
That is not to say that the potential for rent controls in Scotland will not have an impact on some investors’ decisions. Rather, it is to point out that the overall picture on the ground does not bear out the picture of catastrophe on this front painted by the lobbyists. And societal factors should be taken into account in the housing market – it cannot be all about unfettered returns for investors.
Research last week from global property adviser JLL certainly raised a question mark or two over the narrative that Scotland is somehow a dire place to invest.
This revealed that Scotland’s real estate sector overall bucked the trend of decline elsewhere in the UK in the first half of 2024 in terms of attracting investment.
This may come as a surprise to some, given the ambient noise.
What is more, JLL highlighted a positive outlook in Scotland for investment in this sector, taking in commercial and industrial property and residential development, during the rest of this year and into 2025.
It is worth observing briefly that the narrative from some seemingly keen on talking Scotland down falls apart pretty quickly too when it comes to foreign direct investment (FDI). The dire warnings about the nation being an unattractive place to invest do not chime with the reality of a consistently very strong performance on this front.
Scotland won a record number of FDI projects in 2023, according to EY’s annual Scotland attractiveness survey published last month.
And the nation last year retained its position as second only to London among UK locations in attracting new inward investment projects.
Scotland won 142 FDI projects last year, a 12.7% rise from the previous record annual figure of 126 achieved in 2022. This was the fifth straight year of increase, and EY noted Scotland was the only part of the UK to achieve this.
The increase in the number of inward investment projects won by Scotland in 2023 was more than twice as sharp as the 6% rise seen across the UK as a whole.
That is surely all good news.
Returning to JLL’s research published last week, this revealed that investment in Scotland’s real estate sector increased “considerably” in the first six months of the year, in contrast to a sharp drop across the rest of the UK.
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The Scottish property market attracted £770 million of investment in the opening six months of 2024, a 4% increase on the average for the first halves of the previous 10 years and 30% higher than in the corresponding period of 2023.
That certainly seems like a solid enough performance in itself. And, obviously, it looks even more impressive in the context of the decline seen in the UK as a whole.
It is a reality that sits most incongruously with the narrative trotted out by some.
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The research covers residential developments including student accommodation and retirement homes as well as commercial and industrial property.
JLL declared: “Scotland bucked the trend seen elsewhere across the UK.”
It observed the UK as a whole “saw a 25% dip in investment in the first six months of the year when compared to the 10-year average”.
Calum Cowe, capital markets director at JLL, highlighted the fact that Scotland’s real estate sector had managed to attract increased investment in spite of a challenging opening to 2024.
He said: “While it’s not been the easiest start to the year from either a political or economic perspective, Scotland continues to show its attractiveness to investors. With the recent interest-rate cut and growing optimism in the health of the wider economy, we expect to see healthy levels of deal activity in the Scottish market.”
Mr Cowe flagged signs of “recovery” in the office market in Scotland’s two major cities.
Edinburgh is, of course, seeing some major office developments, at Haymarket for example.
Sometimes, buoyancy of development in Glasgow is not so immediately obvious but it is good to hear confirmation that there have been a number of key deals in the city in the first half of 2024. There has been much understandable worry over the impact on Glasgow of the move to hybrid and home working and the effect of this on footfall, and natural concern over the state of the public realm, making JLL’s observation all the more welcome.
Edinburgh has a clear advantage over Glasgow in terms of footfall from international tourists. This is particularly clear at the moment with the Festival and Fringe in full swing but it is obvious enough at just about any time of year.
Mr Cowe said: “Investment in the office sector in particular is beginning to show signs of recovery with a number of key deals taking place in both Glasgow and Edinburgh in the first six months of the year.”
There was also good news in terms of the “depth” of the buyer pool for property in Scotland, with JLL flagging greater appetite from UK institutions and private investors.
Again, this might be a surprise to those who have listened only to the noisy voices in recent times.
Mr Cowe said: “We are also encouraged by the increasing depth of the buyer pool in Scotland. International investors have historically accounted for the lion’s share of volumes over the last few years in the market.
“However, we have also seen increasing appetite from UK institutions and private investors in the past 12 months. We are therefore optimistic that this improved deal flow will continue for the remainder of the year and into 2025.”
It was difficult to see what was not to like in the JLL report.
That said, we should not expect the findings of the research to lead to any diminution of the clamour from those declaring that the Scottish Government has made the nation a terrible place to invest.
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