UK consumers’ great appetite for overseas travel and holidays has been among the particularly striking points amid the protracted economic misery which households have had to endure.
This has been most encouraging, not only given the scale of the overseas travel industry and its contribution to the UK economy but also the importance of this sector recovering from the grim days of the pandemic in a manner which enables the swiftest return of connectivity and capacity.
Given this backdrop, it was no surprise that last week’s trading updates from Ryanair and easyJet attracted much attention.
Ryanair rattled sector-watchers a little last Monday with its revelation that fares in the current quarter to end-September were set to be “materially lower” than in the same period of last year.
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However, easyJet last Wednesday presented what appeared to be a significantly more upbeat trading statement.
The relief generated by easyJet’s news was palpable, in the wake of Ryanair’s update and all the attention that commanded. easyJet shares rose sharply last Wednesday, and Ryanair also managed to end that session in positive territory.
It is worth observing that it was hardly all bad news from Ryanair, even as the budget airline reported its profits after tax in its first quarter to the end of June were down by 46% on the same period of last year at 360 million euros.
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Yes, Ryanair’s average fare was down 15% at 41.93 euros. However, the number of passengers it carried in the three months to June was, at 55.5 million, up 10% on the same period of last year.
Michael O’Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, said last Monday: “While Q2 demand is strong, pricing remains softer than we expected, and we now expect Q2 fares to be materially lower than last summer - previously expected to be flat to modestly up.
“The final H1 outcome is, however, totally dependent on close-in bookings and yields in August and September. As is normal at this time of year, we have almost zero Q3 and Q4 visibility, although Q4 will not benefit from last year’s early Easter. It is too early to provide meaningful FY25 PAT (profit after tax) guidance, although we hope to be able to do so at our H1 results in November.”
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It seemed noteworthy that Mr O’Leary noted demand in the current quarter to September is “strong”, albeit with that big caveat of “softer” pricing than expected.
And the lack of visibility about the following two quarters is “normal”, as he emphasised.
easyJet chief executive Johan Lundgren certainly sounded more upbeat generally, it is true.
And he was also able to highlight a strong performance by easyJet’s package holiday business.
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The three months to June constitutes the third quarter of easyJet’s financial year.
And the airline and package holiday operator’s profit in this period was, at £236m, up by £33m on the same period of last year.
Mr Lundgren said: "Our strong performance in the quarter has been driven by more customers choosing easyJet for our unrivalled network of destinations and value for money. This result was achieved despite Easter falling into March this year, demonstrating the continued importance of travel, and this means we remain on track to deliver another record-breaking summer, taking us a step closer to our medium-term targets."
easyJet said of the third-quarter results: “Revenue increased by 11% to £2,631 million predominantly due to an increase in passengers of 8%, growth in ancillary revenue per seat and the continued growth of easyJet holidays.”
The pre-tax profits of easyJet holidays came in at £73m in the three months to June, up from £49m in the same period of last year.
And, commenting on its overall results and on bookings for the fourth quarter of its financial year to September, easyJet declared: “Bookings for Q4 continue to build, with 69% now sold, +1 ppt (percentage point) year on year with 7% more capacity on sale. This means easyJet has currently sold 1.5 million more seats for peak summer compared to the same point in time last year with total yield broadly flat year on year.”
John Moore, senior investment manager at stockbroker RBC Brewin Dolphin, said in the wake of easyJet’s update last Wednesday: “Ryanair’s results earlier in the week cast a shadow over airlines, but easyJet’s performance should provide a level of assurance that conditions aren’t necessarily gloomy across the entire sector. Profits and bookings remain on a positive trajectory, while its easyJet holidays offering is making an even more meaningful contribution to the company’s bottom line.”
He did note that “concerns over the longevity of the post-Covid travel boom will likely hang over airlines for some time yet”.
There is no doubt that financial pressures on many UK households are intense, given the country’s particularly dire inflation crisis and following many years of weak economic performance, with Brexit continuing to weigh heavily on growth and living standards.
However, it is to be hoped the appetite for overseas travel and holidays remains resilient, and that we see connectivity at airports in Scotland and throughout the UK continue to bounce back from those utterly grim days of the pandemic.
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