What can fix UK housing? There is little dispute on the problems or even the remedies; the argument is all about priorities and finance.
It is hard to know where to start. So much seems to be failing - and for decades - that the solutions now seem unaffordable. And, as a devolved matter, how effectively has Scotland used its powers?
The challenge is in the complexity of housing and the tensions that brings between local and national government, public and private, ownership and rental.
It is not simply about new house completions, but the balance between social housing, quality of build and diversity of design. The policy needs to be flexible to fit communities and tackle inequalities. Framing the problem too narrowly - as simply numbers and affordability - would miss the regional variations and risk unintended consequences.
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For example, some of the problem lies in the rented sector, particularly with limited security of tenure and risk of inadequate maintenance to avoid deterioration in quality. But freezing rents may discourage improvement and limit finance available for new social housing projects. A holistic longer term strategy is needed.
Despite the devolved powers, not all the housing levers are directly under Scottish control. Housebuilders are mainly national and private-sector; a concentrated group dominated by a small number of London-listed UK-wide businesses.
There are no signs that concentration is about to change, with the recent collapse of the unlisted Stewart Milne Group showing how important access to stock market capital is.
In late February, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) delivered the result of its year-long assessment of British housebuilding and announced that it was investigating possible price sharing by the largest housebuilders. It noted that in recent years Scotland had come closer than England and Wales to meeting its implied target delivery levels, albeit with varying levels of achievement by different local authorities.
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What the private sector can deliver is finance, by issuing shares or borrowing. This is crucial at a time of constrained public finance.
Financial institutions are increasingly willing to invest in rented accommodation, including social housing. From a low base, the UK supply of affordable rented accommodation by registered for-profit providers has trebled over the past decade. There are some Scottish success stories in this sector.
But the overall impact from the increased financialisation of the housing market has been mixed, with buy-to-let investors now a bigger part of the market and adding to upward pressure on house prices.
Over the past two decades, the UK has moved from a peak of 70% home ownership towards rented, and is now comparable to France though still behind Germany and Scandinavian countries. This suggests that a higher proportion of renting is not necessarily the wrong model, but a framework of control on rents and accommodation quality is needed.
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Today, the UK has one of the most liberalised private renting systems in Europe. Scotland has brought in regulation, but it is too early to assess the impact of that change on supply.
April sees Scotland move on from its temporary rent caps and a pause on evictions, and some tenants may be hit by a jump in rents. Over the last 18 months of rental price controls, many landlords will have seen their costs rise. Some may put their properties on the market, lacking confidence in the future role of the rented sector. A period of disruption is likely.
The CMA Report assesses Scotland’s all-tenure building targets at 20,000 homes per year, not disproportionate to UK achievements. While labour shortages are holding back current new building starts, overall delivery of affordable and social housing is consistent with the longer term targets.
But the new build numbers conceal a deterioration of existing stock; some homes may be lost to RAAC, and many social landlords are struggling to bring older properties up to modern standards. There should be targets for net numbers and an ambition for the quality of Scotland’s overall social housing stock. Energy efficiency is not the only issue in creating decent homes for all.
We can expect more legislation. The CMA report recommended enhanced consumer protection measures and robust enforcement for homeowners in new estates impacted by private management arrangements.
READ MORE: CMA calls for 'significant intervention' in UK housebuilding
There is need for a consumer code giving greater clarity to buyers on the costs of a new home. Issues with landbanks and the planning process were also identified as adding barriers to competition and deterring smaller housebuilders.
It is important to put UK housing in context; it is certainly in crisis but some of our problems are shared by other developed economies. Much of the current debate on housing lacks international comparison.
Despite UK house prices rising faster than most countries, in terms of housing affordability it ranks mid-table internationally. Worse than the US and Canada, but better than Germany, France and Italy. The statistics hide some particular problems in big cities but do suggest that our problems are more to do with market balance and the impact on inequalities.
The housing crisis does not only have financial impact. Rising housing costs can exacerbate social divisions and create tensions within communities. Low-income families are disproportionately hit and social inequalities made worse.
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Reports have found that a growing number of households spend a disproportionate amount of their income on rent, often exceeding 30%. This financial strain often undermines health and overall well-being. And housing is a big part of the growing gap in wealth and opportunities between generations, undermining social cohesion and aspiration.
The challenge is to find the right mix of ownership and rental; the balance will vary by location. Some rented accommodation is needed in the Scottish economy for job mobility, students and tourism. Regulation will develop over the next few years and it will be important to monitor and adjust where unintended consequences emerge.
There is also a case for building political consensus on long term housing strategy. A vision is needed for a horizon long past the political cycle.
Colin McLean is a director SVM Asset Management
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