Climate change is happening in Scotland. A wake-up call

Climate change has already happened. It is happening and will continue to happen – not just in Scotland, but across the world. The question is not whether it happens, but how much it does. Reducing it is, of course, as Dr Rivington says, a matter of “drastically cutting our burning of fossil fuels”.

That message is not new. But the surprise, for the James Hutton Institute scientists who have created the two reports  (titled Climate Trends and Future Projections in Scotland and Climate Extremes in Scotland) has been the speed of change.

It is, as such, one of an increasing number of other reports, globally, that tell us a similar story:  some of the models predicting climate change impacts have underestimated its speed.

In the Hutton reports, we find that February observed temperatures have already increased to be at the 'lower end of the 12 climate projections' used in the study for the 2020-2049 period. This means that we are already hitting the kind of warming we might have expected later.

READ MORE: Scotland's  climate change is happening faster than predicted, says report

READ MORE: Scotland floods: From A83 to swamped crops, what to learn?

But also, globally, there are other signs that the trajectory is faster not slower than once thought. In September, for instance,  it was reported that Antarctica is warming faster than climate change models predict.

Yet still, across Scotland, it seems all too often when it comes to cutting emissions or recognising the need to adapt, we have our heads not so much stuck in the sand, as stuck in the mud of a recent landslide.

This past year, 2023, is on course to be the warmest, globally, on record. Most of us already have some sense of this from the numerous reports about record-breaking months. We, in Scotland, only just experienced the hottest June on record, as well as, in Babet, the most costly storm damage.

Yet still I notice that when I write about the weather there will be some people who will tell me that this is just part of some natural cycle, nothing to do with greenhouse gas emissions, or that actually in their corner of the world, the weather is rather ‘meh’, so no worries here.

A landslide on the A83 (Image: BEAR Scotland)

Till recently, and often even now, it has seemed as if many in Scotland have regarded climate change as a distant event, only affecting other parts of the world as yet. This report is a reminder that we do not live in that bubble.

Even if we were not yet hit by climate impacts, it's worth remembering our global connectedness. The Hutton reports suggest that there is a chance some crop yields could be higher under a changed climate (though an overall likelihood they would be reduced). However, in terms of Scottish food security this is not the only factor - for we are connected for animal feed and other food supplies to other parts of the world, also hit by climate change, and vulnerable to the risk of crop failure.

What these Hutton reports show us is that climate change is already in progress, its waters already flushing our roads and homes. We may not be able to attribute any one storm to its workings, but the science tells us that the mean of such events has shifted. “Climate extremes,” the report says, “have already changed and are projected to increase: longer dry periods; heavier rain in winter.”

Meanwhile, the fact that climate change is already here does not seem to have registered with some of our politicians.

Over the past year of ‘record’ temperatures, we have seen backsliding and inertia, particularly from the UK Government. Rishi Sunak’s net zero delays and his “proportionate and pragmatic” strategy of issuing new oil and gas licenses have been like brakes on the system. We have also seen Scotland’s climate plan delayed and an acknowledged ‘chasm’ in the figures due to a downgrading of estimates for carbon capture.

The Hutton reports also follow hot on the heels of last month’s Climate Change Committee report into Scotland’s adaptation progress - which raised "serious concern" over the "damaging cascading impacts" from severe weather and highlighted the lack of sufficient plans for protecting water supply.

It should act as a reminder of the need to both cut emissions and simultaneously adapt – and for more than the apathetic drive we’ve seen from the Westminster government, or even from a Scotland, where ambition exceeds reality.

When it comes to weather, those not devastated by extreme weather events tend to have short memories. In the midst of a grey and wet July day or a mild December afternoon, we’ll develop temporary amnesia over the fact that we have just had the hottest June on record. But reports like these are a reality check. They are a reminder that it’s impossible anymore to see the weather as ‘just weather’.