Poll shows what the priority must be – and it isn't independence

From the standpoint of the majority who think they are generally pretty useless, the remarkable point is not that 61 per cent of Scots think the Scottish Government is failing on the NHS but that 34% believe it is doing well while 4% still don’t know.

This tends to confirm that there is around one-third of the Scottish electorate who have no inclination to exercise their critical faculties when asked about anything the Scottish Government is responsible for. And therein lies a substantial nationalist core vote, which is almost enough to win elections.

However, as we will come to later, not even most of this category attaches any current priority to another referendum. One really does wonder why the supposedly-acute antennae of Nicola Sturgeon and her acolytes don’t get that message.

There is more to life than the constitution, especially for those less cosseted than MSPs from harsh daily realities. For the SNP to return to Holyrood from their holidays and immediately start debating independence does seem a trifle tone-deaf. Symbolism matters and more Scots are starting to notice.

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The broad conclusion to be drawn from the polling is that a significant majority are now pretty fed up with Nat rule and think they could and should be protecting public services a lot better than they are. Neither do they rate the constitution as a priority, de facto or otherwise.

Perhaps most strikingly, 67% think the Scottish Government could be doing more within its existing powers to combat the cost of living crisis, while only 23% disagree. This suggests the standard tactic of blaming everything on Whitehall for not giving them enough money or powers just might be wearing thin. We live in hope.

Coincidentally, it was interesting to see the archive material released by National Records of Scotland about the early days of Alex Salmond-Nicola Sturgeon rule when one of their first decisions was to ditch the election pledge to write off student debt due to it being undeliverable on grounds of cost. Well, of course it was.

For those of us with slightly long memories, this was the SNP’s equivalent of “£350 million a day for the NHS” on the side of a bus. In a closely-fought election, it was their means of purchasing the crucial student vote – and they knew perfectly well in advance that it was completely fraudulent.

When they duly abandoned it within a month, the Cabinet minute solemnly noted that blaming the UK Treasury would “give them a degree of political cover”. And so it has gone on ever since, with every failure and broken promise attributed to under-funding from “London”, rather than their own priorities and ineptitude.

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That luxury of blame-shifting is not available to any other party and it has, for 16 years, been used as the dominant defence mechanism with indisputable success. So it is encouraging if 67 per cent of Scottish voters are now agreed that our devolved rulers should be doing a lot better with the money they have, while also cushioned by the £15 billion deficit that goes unmentioned.

Yesterday’s poll was commissioned by the anti-separatist organisation Scotland in Union from a respectable polling firm, Survation. The only significance of its provenance lay in the questions asked – and one in particular. On the independence issue, the question posed was between Remain and Leave rather than Yes or No and the difference in outcomes was startling.

The cost of living crisis came top in a list of public priorities in the new Survation poll for Scotland in Union (Image: Newsquest)

I have never understood how the Electoral Commission allowed the Yes/No question to go on the 2014 ballot paper since the most elementary student of psephology understands the inherent bias driven by that terminology. However, it is a matter of history that this obstacle was overcome to produce a 55-45% win for No (or Remain).

Since then, polling has hovered around the 50-50 mark on the same Yes/No formulation. Look what happened, however, when Survation asked about independence through the options of Remain in the UK or Leave. The gap jumped to 59% in favour of remaining while 41%t want to leave – more clear-cut even than in 2014.

Returning to my original caution, I do not place excessive faith in any poll but surely everyone can agree it offers food for thought that by varying the wording of a question on exactly the same subject it is possible to obtain such significantly different responses. It certainly does not suggest a “settled will” for breaking up the country or indeed a referendum any time soon.

Asked from a list of options, to choose which issues “the Scottish Government should prioritise”, the leaders came as no great shock – cost of living, 62 per cent; NHS, 57 per cent; energy bills, 44 per cent. What surprised even me what that “an independence referendum” mustered just eight per cent. And remember, they could choose three.

Notwithstanding that lack of interest in a referendum as a matter of high current priority, 33 per cent endorsed Nicola Sturgeon’s ambition to turn the next General Election into a “de facto referendum” on independence, whatever that may mean. That equates pretty much to the Nationalist core while nobody else is interested.

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If you look at the headline voting intentions, the SNP are still ahead but by less while enthusiasm is far removed from the heady days when Alex Salmond passed the baton to Ms Sturgeon. That creates an opportunity for opposition parties, and particularly Labour, but no more than an opportunity.

Their task for 2023 is to talk the language of the Scottish people’s priorities. Just as in the rest of the UK, that translates into a change of government - not a never-ending debate about the constitution.

Meawhile, I take comfort from the fact that “only” 22 per cent think the Scottish Government is performing well on ferries. They really must form the hardest of cores!