Brazil protests: Lula, Bolsonaro and will there be a coup?

Their complaints – that last year’s election was stolen – were familiar and there was even a rioter dressed in a viking hat, reminiscent of ‘QAnon shaman’ Jake Angeli, currently serving a 41 month jail term for his actions on January 6 2021 in Washington.

Bolsonaro last year became the first incumbent Brazilian president to lose his re-election campaign, defeated in a run-off by the former premier Lula Da Silva, the popular left-winger who held office from 2003 to 2011.

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Described by Barack Obama as “one of the most popular politicians on earth” Lula, leader of the Worker’s Party (PT), was comfortably re-elected in 2006 but was ineligible to stand four years later due to constitutional restrictions. During his two terms around 20 million Brazilians were lifted out of poverty, while illiteracy, infant mortality and unemployment fell significantly. When Lula left office his approval rating stood at 80 per cent.

However, he was later implicated in the Lava Jato (car wash) investigation into bribery, money laundering and corruption and sentenced to nine-and-a-half years in prison. An unsuccessful appeal followed and he was arrested in April of 2018.

That conviction prevented Lula from standing in the 2018 presidential election, which saw Bolsonaro elected to the highest office in the land. Lula’s successor, Dilma Rousseff had narrowly won her own re-election bid in 2014 but was impeached two years later and replaced by the centre-right Michel Temer. The 75-year-old proved hugely unpopular as he imposed austerity policies, with a general strike called in 2017 in response to controversial labour reforms.

Bolsonaro, a far-right federal deputy from Rio, ran on a populist platform promising the liberalisation of gun laws, a tough stance on crime, legalisation of the death penalty, privatisation of state industries and a move away from environmentalism. His candidacy was endorsed by a number of Brazilian celebrities – including many of the country’s football legends.

Ronaldinho, Rivaldo, Kaka and Cafu, all world champions in 2002, threw their weight behind Bolsonaro, as did former Formula One driver Emerson Fittipaldi. Having received the most votes in the first round, he easily triumphed over Fernando Haddad of PT in the run-off.

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An avowed admirer of Brazil’s military dictatorship, which controlled the country from 1964 to 1985, Bolsonaro also declared that Augusto Pinochet’s regime in Chile “should have killed more people”. Upon his election he filled a number of key cabinet positions with figures from the army, including making former general Hamilton Mourao his vice-president. The number of active or retired officers holding government and ministerial positions more than doubled to over 6,000.

Installed as minister of justice was Sergio Moro – one of the lead judges in the Car Wash investigation which saw Lula jailed and barred from standing against Bolsonaro. Leaked documents would later show Moro passing inside information to prosecutors, as well as clues and resources which could help convict Lula.

The former president was acquitted on all charges in March 2021 after the Supreme Court ruled that a court in Curitiba, overseen by Moro, did not have jurisdiction. The court later ruled Moro had been biased against Lula and all the cases he had brought against the PT leader were annulled.

That freed the former president to stand again in 2022 and, although the result was closer than expected, he defeated Bolsonaro in a run-off by 50.9% to 49.1%. Even before voting, the incumbent had made allegations of fraud, dismissed by the electoral court as “false and misleading and meant to disturb the electoral process”.

In August, months before the election, a Brazilian newspaper published details of a conversation between pro-Bolsonaro businessmen who expressed their belief that a military coup d’etat would be preferable to Lula returning to office. Jose Koury, owner of Barra World mall wrote “I prefer a coup to the return of the PT a million times over… no one will stop doing business with Brazil, as they do with many dictatorships”.

In June Bloomberg reported that Bolsonaro used a meeting with U.S president Joe Biden to ask for help in the October elections, warning the commander-in-chief that Lula’s return would be detrimental to the White House’s interests. Bolsonaro denies this.

Following his defeat on October 30, Bolsonaro remained largely silent. His party was fined over $4m US for bringing what was deemed to be a frivolous lawsuit demanding that electronic votes be annulled, but the outgoing president did not speak until the eve of Lula’s certification when he used a speech to tell the armed forces they “owe loyalty to our people”.

If the people who stormed congress, many of whom wore the shirts of Brazil’s national football team, were expecting help from the army it didn’t arrive. Hundreds were arrested and the governor of Brasilia was suspended for security failings. Bolsonaro, last seen eating fried chicken in Florida, was not present.

That does not mean, however, that the threat democracy is not real. Joao Goulart, considered the last left-wing president of the country before Lula, was deposed in a military coup – which had the backing of Britain and the U.S – in 1964. The White House has directly or indirectly supported the deposing of left wing figures in various Latin American countries in the past, including in Argentina, Chile and Bolivia.

Lula’s election made him the latest left-leaning leader in the region. Gabriel Boric was elected president of Chile in 2021, following Luis Arce in Bolivia and Andres Obrador in Mexico, and preceding Gustavo Petro who was elected to lead Colombia last year. All four offered condemnation of Sunday’s events, with Arce tweeting “fascists will always want to take by force what they did not achieve at the ballot box”.

Unlike in similar situations in the past though, the attack was quickly condemned by the western world. President Biden called it “an assault on democracy”, while Rishi Sunak affirmed the “full support” of the UK for the democratically elected president.

I condemn any attempt to undermine the peaceful transfer of power and the democratic will of the people of Brazil.

President @LulaOficial and his government has the United Kingdom’s full support, and I look forward to building on our countries’ close ties in the years ahead.

— Rishi Sunak (@RishiSunak) January 9, 2023

Given the history of leftist leaders in Latin America though, concern will remain. Twitter owner Elon Musk declared his hope “the people of Brazil are able to resolve matters peacefully”, having previously expressed concern that the social media outlet may have “given preference” to left wing candidates.

When Evo Morales was controversially deposed as leader of Bolivia, the billionaire responded to suggestions access to the country’s lithium reserves, needed to make batteries for electric cars, may have been a factor by declaring “we’ll coup who we want”.

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On Monday police looked to remove thousands of protestors who have camped outside the army headquarters demanding a military coup. Meanwhile, in December Lula named a civilian, José Múcio Monteiro, as his defence minister as he looks to scale back the influence the army has over Brazilian politics.

Few expect a full coup – the heads of all three military branches stepped down in 2021 in protest at Bolsonaro’s perceived attempt to politicise the military – but the former president enjoys significant support among the rank-and-file, with more than 200 reservists signing a letter calling for action in the wake of the election.

While the January 6 riot in Washington fizzled out quickly, this could well only be the start in Brasilia.