Menace of Trump still stalks the Republicans

Instead, Mr Trump announced a run of 45,000 NFT trading cards of himself, including the businessman mocked up as a cowboy, a border guard and a superhero. The move was widely mocked, with even loyalists on the r/conservative Reddit board declaring themselves off the Trump train. Former campaign strategist Steve Bannon declared: “I can’t do this any more.”

Here’s the thing though: the cards sold out. There is clearly still a rabid base of support who hang on Mr Trump’s every word and whim – the question for 2023 and beyond is how big that base is.

The former president still wields considerable influence in the Republican party, even if some GOP grandees look to be quietly attempting to move away from him. All of his endorsements for the 2022 Senate primaries won, as did all but seven of the candidates he endorsed for the House of Representatives.

However, it’s worth looking more closely at the numbers. Despite his 82 per cent success rate in the primaries seeming impressive, most were incumbents or heavily favoured to win. He endorsed challengers to the 10 Republicans who voted for his impeachment after the January 6 riots, with eight either losing or withdrawing before the vote.

Mr Trump endorsed just five candidates in the closest House races, all of whom lost, and his vocal support for the former NFL running back Herschel Walker, a long-time friend and ally, couldn’t help win the Georgia Senate seat – Walker was defeated in a run-off.

The 2022 mid-terms were Mr Trump’s first as the supposed kingmaker of the Republican Party and the much-vaunted “Red Wave” didn’t materialise. Perhaps sensing blood – or red dye from a discarded MAGA hat – in the water, the GOP’s big beasts have begun, for the first time, to openly criticise the only candidate who has so far declared for 2024.

Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell turned that 82% success rate on its head, saying in a news conference last week: “Our ability to control the primary outcome was quite limited in ’22 because the support of the former president proved to be very decisive.

“So my view was do the best you can with the cards you’re dealt. Now, hopefully, in the next cycle we’ll have quality candidates everywhere and a better outcome.”

It’s no secret that Mr McConnell and Mr Trump hold each other in disdain, but the Senator from Kentucky has always been careful not to take shots in public – even after the former Commander-in-Chief stated he had a “death wish” for supporting a Democratic bill.

One of Donald Trump's NFT trading cards (Image: Newsquest)

Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, who is believed to be mulling a 2024 run, said Mr Trump winning the nomination would be the “worst scenario” and manna from heaven for Joe Biden, while a pair of polls released in mid-December showed Mr Trump trailing the hard-right Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis.

DeSantis, who has declared his state is where “woke goes to die”, is reading from the MAGA playbook – the question for the GOP is: can you have have Trumpism without Trump?

For all his recent travails and the signals being given out by the party leadership, Mr Trump remains enormously popular among Republican voters. His 70% approval rating is the lowest since March of 2016 – but it’s still 70%. Polling website FiveThirtyEight shows him with a consistent lead for the primaries.

Things can change over the course of a campaign – Mr Trump himself was considered a joke candidate when he announced his first run – but the numbers make grim reading for any challenger. The former Apprentice host once declared “I could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and I wouldn’t lose any voters” and he may not have been far off the mark.

Mr Trump was impeached twice during his time in the White House, his term ended with a riot at the Capitol which left five people dead, the FBI raided his Mar-a-Lago home as part of an investigation into the handling of confidential documents, a civil lawsuit accuses him of widespread fraud and the January 6 select committee is expected to refer him to the Justice Department. His approval remains at 70%.

To defeat the former president, primary opponents will have to attack him. Mr Trump, notoriously thin-skinned, can be expected to respond with fire and fury well beyond the norm.

In the primary for 2016 alone he doxxed Lindsay Graham by reading out his phone number at a rally which was being broadcast live on television, accused Ted Cruz’s dad of killing John F Kennedy (and called his wife ugly) and dealt a fatal blow to the career of Jeb Bush. His base may have shrunk, but not yet by enough for a candidate to win without it. It’s no coincidence no-one has broken cover to officially declare they’ll oppose him.

The other risk for potential opponents and the GOP is mutually assured destruction. Should Mr Trump be beaten in a primary contest he could well decide to run as an independent. It’s something he threatened in 2016 and would surely make it impossible for the Republican nominee to win the White House.

Whether he would actually follow through with a third-party run is debatable. While taking the Republican Party down with him would surely appeal to his vindictive streak, the 76-year-old couldn’t possibly win and, as shown by his refusal to accept the 2020 election result, his greatest fear is being seen as a loser.

The former president may well be a fading force but he’s been written off before and has a revolver pointed at the head of his party. He’s already warned DeSantis could “damage himself very badly” if he runs. Having created the MAGA monster, the Republicans must now work out how to slay it without destroying themselves in the process.