Independence will become the settled will – thanks to the unionists

As it stands, a unionist nightmare is slowly unfolding. Support for independence has been the majority position now in Scotland in four straight polls carried out since the Supreme Court said Holyrood didn’t have the power to legislate for another referendum.

Remember, the UK Government has pledged that it won’t stand in the way of another referendum if independence is the “settled will” of voters. Now, there’s no way it can yet be said that any wills have been settled, but what we certainly can say is that it looks like there’s a settling.

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This is delicious for Yes voters, and for non-partisan fans of bitter irony it’s a moment to pull up a chair and get the popcorn. Before the Supreme Court ruling No was ahead of Yes. If there had been a snap referendum, Yes would probably have lost. Now, Yes is on a slow but sure upward path that may one day soon leave whichever government sits in London with no option but to agree to a referendum. Saying no to the SNP is easy. Saying no to a permanent 50+% of the Scottish electorate is impossible.

Wouldn’t it be a sight to behold if Sir Keir Starmer – the man who’s aped Boris Johnson’s muscular unionism when it comes to Scottish democracy – found himself in Number 10, but with no way of refusing another referendum, which he then had to fight? And if he lost … well, he’s out on his ear, and it might be Angela Rayner as PM. What larks.

This isn’t a blip. The pollster Sir John Curtice – the nearest thing to Moses when it comes to British politics – says that “when a number of polls all record much the same shift, it is highly likely something has changed”. The change is this: a significant number of undecideds were clearly so affronted by the assault on Scottish democracy – the refusal to acknowledge Scotland’s right to control its fate – that they’ve eased over to Yes.

The proof is found in the polls: 51% of all voters believe Holyrood should be allowed to call another referendum. Only 39% oppose. Crucially, 23% of people who voted No in 2014 think Holyrood should have the power to hold Indyref2. It hints at some soft Nos moving to Yes or at least an undecided position.

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Delightfully, unionists must shoulder all the blame for this comic state of affairs. Their cock-up wouldn’t have occurred if the Supreme Court had been cut out of the equation and the UK Government simply behaved democratically, accepting Holyrood’s Yes majority gives the Scottish Government the right to call Indyref2. The consolidation of Yes is a Frankenstein monster of unionist creation. The Supreme Court simply pulled the lever which flashed electricity into its veins. You can almost hear the screams of "It’s alive! It’s alive!" in Westminster.

To make matters worse for unionists – and frankly, they deserve it for treating democracy like Andrex – demographics are thoroughly against them too: 72% of folk aged 16 to 24 are now Yes voters; only 40% of those 65-plus would vote Yes. It’s really déclassé to say but unionism is over in a generation. Both men and women are now majority Yes supporters: 53% for men, 54% for women. Significantly, more men supported independence in 2014 than women. If the stereotype holds that women are more cautious and less ideologically hidebound, this indicates independence has become a less risky prospect than the status quo.

This turnaround is what the CIA calls blowback, or what the rest of us might call "being too big for your boots": try playing the wise guy and it backfires in your face. Here’s a nice example of blowback from history. The Tsarist secret police, the Okhrana, once recruited a radical called Yevno Azef as an informer. He helped them round up the leaders of the Socialist Revolutionary Party. With the leadership gone, Azef assumed command and started organising assassinations … including the director of the Imperial Police, the Minister of the Interior and the Tsar’s uncle. Blow. Back.

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However, there’s a wee sop here for unionists – something to take away the taste of bitter and instructive medicine: this rise for Yes has little to do with the SNP. It wasn’t Nicola Sturgeon’s great leadership or her Government’s amazing prowess which put rockets under the rollerblades of independence. So they can lick their wounds, safe in that knowledge. However, the wounds are still self-inflicted, clearly, so there’s not that much consolation. Nevertheless, I’m trying to find something to soften the blow and be a bit kind.

Atop this all, sits the matter of the next Westminster election. It looks like obliteration for Conservatives. Rishi Sunak, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss could all lose their seats, which would be quite jolly. A thumping Labour majority seems inevitable. Though, in Scotland, it’ll be Labour which gets thumped – again – with the SNP seemingly on course to take enough vote share to say it has crossed the threshold to win a de facto referendum.

Now, does the SNP deserve that in terms of its record in government? No. But does Labour deserve to do better here? Certainly not, given its treatment of Scottish democracy.

The one bright spot for everyone, though – from Nicola Sturgeon to my next-door neighbour’s cat – is this: it seems Neale Hanvey and Kenny MacAskill, the two SNP defectors who did a moonlight flit to Alex Salmond’s weirdo party, Alba, will get their jotters at the next election. So regardless of anyone’s constitutional position, we can all have a damn good party when that happens.