REPORTS of the SNP’s demise are greatly exaggerated. Despite a torrent of gloomy predictions after the Supreme Court ruling, London-based commentators are already contemplating indyref2.

Last week, Times columnist Alexander Walker argued that blocking ex-pats from voting – as both governments agreed for the first independence referendum – “bucks the international trend” and wrongly deflated the No vote. He insists this “loophole” should be closed before the next vote, indirectly confirming expectations that a fresh vote is inevitable and imminent.

Anyway, voting eligibility doesn’t cover the cause of unionism in glory. The Scottish-run referendum included anyone registered at an address in Scotland. The Westminster-run Brexit ballot confined voting to British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens. One was a civic-based voting register, the other an ethnic one. This meant EU citizens could vote in 2014, and many voted no (in vain) to guarantee EU membership.

Ethnic minorities born furth of Scotland could also vote, the largest minority including folk like myself who were born in England. If the SNP was operating ruthlessly, such likely No voters would have been gerrymandered off the voting register. But they weren’t. And any attempt to do so would have rightly been ferociously condemned.

As for Mr Walker’s complaint about the inclusion of pro-independence 16 and 17-year-olds in Scottish-run elections, maybe an attractive future vision of Brexited Britain would win more hearts and minds than hitting the automatic exclusion button?

Another nod to an impending second referendum has come from the Guardian’s Polly Toynbee – more impactful perhaps, given Labour’s consistent poll lead and the small torrent of Tory MPs cranking up new careers before they exit the steadily sinking ship.

Ms Toynbee suggests a successful Keir Starmer should call the SNP's bluff and offer a referendum within months of winning the next election. Her suggestion was seconded on LBC, by chief political commentator at the I paper, Paul Waugh, who believes the Scots love a winner and that witnessing a Labour victory will kick-start old political voting patterns north of the border and dampen support for independence completely. So the best timing for a second vote would be under a newly victorious and untainted Labour government rather than any future, catastrophic Conservative one.

If only Keir Starmer was the kind of politician to consider such a logical yet high-risk strategy. But he’s not and there’s the rub. Many bold things must be done by an incoming UK Labour government, but Sir Keir will likely ignore the lot of them, heading instinctively for "splitting the difference" with the long legacy of privatising Tory governments, even though that ultimately leaves Labour adrift and becalmed.

Take Brexit – there will be no renegotiation by Sir Keir even though most English voters are finally experiencing buyers' regret. Crazy. But might Scots sense the stagnation and vote Labour anyway? After all, a recent by-election saw Labour win – though it was an existing Labour council seat – and rising trade union activism should shift voters Sir Keir’s way. Mebbes aye mebbes naw.

Sir Keir has busily distanced himself from the idea of a new “golden age” for unions should he enter Number Ten. No repeat of the chumminess with predecessors Harold Wilson and Jim Callaghan and no tolerance for MPs or prominent party members who even attend picket lines.

Of course, there are staunch trade unionists within Labour’s ranks. But are they powerful enough to get Thatcher's anti-union legislation overturned? I hae ma doots. Meanwhile, the Scottish Government has negotiated deals averting some of the public sector strikes (in rail and the NHS) that are still happening elsewhere across the UK.

So, which is the better long-term bet for scunnered trade unionists seeking a permanent and wholesale change in the terms of trade for working people? A Scottish Government that immediately and instinctively mitigated the harshest Westminster benefit reforms (with cross-party agreement), established a better paid living wage years ago and now administers the UK’s only child payment to ease poverty – or Westminster whose wobbly commitment to equality and workers’ rights would be chucked out the window tomorrow the minute Sir Keir falters? No matter how the pros and cons are weighed by Scots trade unionists, it’s not an automatic vote for UK Labour.

Still, it's understandable that English lefties getting excited about a likely Labour PM will assume that Scottish lefties feel the same. But our political register is calibrated differently.

Labour collapsed here in 2007 and supporters shifted to another social democratic party, while the party’s traditional support was dutifully toeing the line down south. When disenchantment finally struck in England, many Labour voters moved in an opposite, populist and rightwards direction. For all the attempts to paint the Yes movement as Trumpian, it evidently isn’t – as Polly Toynbee does acknowledge. This awareness should affect Labour tactics. But it doesn’t.

Just as Sir Keir avoids insulting Brexiteers he must woo, he should think again about treating ex-Labour voters in Scotland as political lepers for preferring the possibility of socialism in their lifetimes to the near certainty of endless struggle within a habitually conservative UK. As it is, each mention of the verminous SNP, makes it harder not easier for old supporters to return.

Besides, no-one expects democracy from the Tories, but last time around Labour delivered devolution. How does it look for them now to adopt the same Tory tactics towards the indyref-backing Scottish majority? And how does it feel to knuckle down simply because you’ve been telt? Backing independence isn’t sloppy seconds for most Yes voters. It’s become a normal, reasonable and permanent default.

So, tell you what Polly T. You have your excitement about impending democratic change and we’ll have ours. If Keir Starmer does plan an immediate independence referendum, I hope he’ll announce that before the vote. Because no recent General Election pivoted on Scottish votes and Scots know it.

Thus, the prospect of a Labour UK Government (and speedy referendum) could actually boost the SNP vote. In short, there’s no point trying to game democracy. Just bring it on.

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