AS the seasons change our unusually mild autumn begins to blow into a bleak, recessionary winter of discontent.

Groups representing huge swathes of the hospitality and brewing industry, UKHospitality, the British Beer & Pub Association, the British Institute of Innkeeping and Hospitality Ulster, last week warned that unless the UK and its devolved governments take their fears seriously and act quickly, the new year will prove to be the final straw for many businesses.

A recent industry survey found that rampant inflation and rising interest rates had caused consumer confidence to plummet, with 77% of operators stating they had seen a decrease in people drinking and dining out, and 85% fearing a further decline. Nearly 89% of respondents intimated that they weren’t confident that current levels of government support were enough to support the industry over the next six months, and 35% said they expected to be operating at a loss or be unviable by the end of the year, let alone making it into the new year.

Leon Thompson, executive director of UKHospitality Scotland, has called on the UK Government to prop up the industry by slashing VAT to 10%, and also for the Scottish Government to reintroduce its 50% business rate relief package which was a pivotal emergency support measure that saved many businesses from going to the wall during the pandemic.

Mr Thompson said: “UKHospitality Scotland, alongside colleagues in London, has long campaigned for the UK Government to reduce the rate of VAT for hospitality businesses. Right now, a reduced rate of 10% is vital for our businesses to give them financial headroom and boost consumer confidence. The Prime Minister certainly supported hospitality as Chancellor during the pandemic and we are making the strongest case for support to the new Chancellor.”

In a joint statement, UKHospitality, the BBPA, BII and Hospitality Ulster warned: “The vulnerability of the sector due to soaring energy costs, crippling rises in the cost of goods and dampening consumer confidence is on full display and if urgent action isn’t taken, it is likely that we will lose a significant chunk of Britain’s iconic hospitality sector in the coming weeks and months.”

They’re not wrong, and right to be so concerned. Make no mistake, tens of thousands of jobs will be lost if emergency government interventions are not forthcoming. And as the cost of living crisis accelerates, and the recessionary wind starts to bite, the worried general public begins to hibernate indoors. Tumbleweed is already gathering in our rapidly-emptying villages, towns and city centres. It is a dire situation that is forcing many pubs, bars, restaurants and clubs to pull down their shutters to try and see out the coming months or shut up shop for good, especially in rural areas where supply and staffing costs have soared.

To further add to the sector's woes, energy suppliers are again hiking up their costs, well above the capped wholesaler price. It is callous and immoral profiteering that totally undermines the Government’s Energy Bill Relief Scheme.

Colin Wilkinson, managing director of the SLTA, was unequivocal in his demands for an inquiry: “The Scottish Licensed Trade Association fully supports the call for Ofgem to launch an investigation into the current practices of energy suppliers to commercial business pricing. The UK Government’s Energy Bill Relief Scheme did not go far enough to help businesses and the struggling hospitality sector and has not lived up to all the hype. Ofgem must investigate the highly inflated price increases still being imposed on the sector.”

Money, we are told, is too tight to mention. Really? Well if only both our “skint” governments were as profligate with our money here at home as they are at COP27, then we might be better placed to saving jobs and those desperate businesses.

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