IS Brexit a bad thing?

The truth is you can argue the point endlessly but Brexit has certainly caused disruption, uncertainty and division. A major constitutional change being effected without being decisively desired by the country as a whole has undoubtedly been damaging.

What applies to Brexit applies many times over to the possibility of Scotland leaving the UK.

The SNP said they would respect the result of the 2014 referendum which was supposed to settle the constitutional position of Scotland for a generation. They have not done so, Brexit has been their excuse to re-open the question but if it was not that they would have found another.

The UK Government’s position is that the matter is settled and there should be no further referendum for a very long time. The SNP Government’s position is that a majority of one in the Scottish Parliament gives them the right to hold another referendum now – an undeniable mandate it is not – but they cling to it tenaciously.

Let us for the sake of argument say that both of these positions are wrong. That Scotland should not be bound to a specific timetable and that there should be a referendum if and when the people of Scotland clearly want one. Also, if there is another referendum, it should be fair, inclusive and decisive. Sounds reasonable?

The starting point is that there should be a set of conditions which are understood by all participants which if they come about would result in a referendum. The “we want” and “not now” positions are not helpful or clear.

The important perspective is that it is not normal around the world for constitutional change to be effected by a simple majority in a referendum. In fact that position is quite extraordinary and – as Brexit shows – harmful. A wafer thin majority for a major and irrevocable change is not good enough – something more is needed.

We now have a new UK Prime Minister. This is a chance for the UK Government to set out some clear ground rules along the following lines:

First, the UK Government should agree it would allow another referendum on Scotland leaving the Union if two thirds of MSPs vote in favour of a resolution to request it. The one proviso, to stop underhand fiddling between the Greens and the SNP, is there should be a rule change to prevent parties standing in the List for an electoral region unless they have also put up candidates in each of that region’s constituencies.

Second, any referendum should not take place through a section 30 order giving the Scottish Government the right to run it. There was simply too much sharp practice by them last time – a grossly biased question and deliberate exclusion of Scots living in the rest of the UK from voting. The question to be asked, the electorate and the rules under which the election are run should not be determined by either government but be controlled by an independent commission potentially including international members.

Third, we need a mechanism to ensure not only that any result is conclusive but that it is inclusive. A referendum to leave the UK won by a tiny overall majority but with regions outside the central belt being against it is a recipe for disaster.

There are two ways to deal with this. The obvious is to allow a region which votes to stay with the UK to do so if the rest of Scotland votes to go. This is perfectly fair. The SNP scream that Scotland was dragged out of the EU against its will, so why should the South of Scotland region, for example, be dragged out of the British union against its will? Plainly it should not.

The better way, and which keeps Scotland together as a political whole, is to say that in order for a referendum to result in Scotland leaving the UK there needs to be both an overall majority in favour and a majority in each of the eight electoral regions.

The nationalists will say that this is all too hard and it is unfair. The answer is that it is hard and so it should be. If Scotland were ever to leave the UK it should only be on the basis that a very clear and inclusive majority of Scots want that to be so. Such a hurdle is not odd – it is the norm. In Canada for example the agreement of all provinces is required for major constitutional changes. A similar hurdle has in fact been achieved in Scotland before. In the EU referendum all 32 local authority areas voted Remain and the overall national result was 62% Remain.

That clarity of process and decisive outcome is required to protect the people of Scotland from endless chaos and division. If we have a referendum it should be because we definitely want one and if we leave the UK. It should only be because the wish of the people to do so is crystal clear.

Read more by Guy Stenhouse:

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