LET’S pose a simple question: how should the Scottish Government respond to the coronation of Rishi Sunak?
Firstly, there’s no law demanding a General Election be held. There’s plenty of Westminster precedent, just recall Gordon Brown assuming power after Tony Blair, and stubbornly, foolishly, failing to go to the country, seeking his own mandate.
In Scotland, matters aren’t so clear cut. When Alex Salmond resigned in 2014, there was no immediate Scottish election. However, next day there was a Holyrood vote over who’d become the new First Minister. Nicola Sturgeon got 66 votes; Ruth Davidson, Scottish Conservative leader, got 15; there were 39 abstentions.
This doesn’t give much weight to any demands by Ms Sturgeon for another UK General Election, though it gives a little. At least there was some process of legitimisation at Holyrood, and Ms Sturgeon subsequently won undisputed mandates. But recent history tangles her argument and steals its clean lines.
However, among the public, the sense is that there’s a moral imperative for another Westminster election. Events of the last three months have been unique and shocking. Britain was put in danger by its own Government: the economy trashed, the country’s international standing traduced, and ordinary citizens left facing the financial fallout of mortgages, pensions and household bills.
If Boris Johnson had a genuine mandate to govern – which he did, regardless of how anyone judges him – then that mandate is long gone. It vanished when Mr Johnson was ousted. Liz Truss pursued policies radically different to Mr Johnson, which the UK electorate didn’t vote for, so it’s hard – impossible – to argue she’d any mandate for her new agenda. And if Ms Truss had no mandate, then Mr Sunak has even less. He’s our third Prime Minister in three months, and we’ve no clear notion of what he plans to do.
More importantly, though, polls show 63 per cent of Britain wants a General Election.
So, on balance, it’s fair to say Ms Sturgeon has every right to demand another General Election, which is just what she’s done.
However, the bigger, more difficult question is how she should pursue those demands. Clearly, words aren’t enough. What can she do beyond just talking?
It’s difficult to argue that Mr Sunak’s new Government has much – if any – integrity. Reappointing Suella Braverman as Home Secretary just days after she was forced to resign over a security breach doesn’t speak of a "safe pair of hands". It speaks of dangerous judgment.
The right-wing press hails Mr Sunak as "the adult in the room, despite the new Prime Minister being fully responsible for the shambles of governance which has plagued Britain for years. It’s notable those same right-wing newspapers recently hailed mS Truss as the nation’s saviour, though that appears to have slipped their minds of late.
It’s a foregone conclusion that if Conservatives were in opposition, and recent events had taken place under Labour, then the Tory Party would be relentless in its pursuit of a General Election. Cries of "the death of democracy" and "an assault on Britain" would be deafening. They’d be Samson in the temple, ready to pull the entire edifice of government down around the country’s ears. Unlike the SNP and Labour, Conservatives wouldn’t fear seeming agents of chaos.
Politically, the SNP – and Labour across Britain – risk losing the initiative against Mr Sunak. He may not be a "safe pair of hands" or ‘the adult in the room’, but he’s not Mr Johnson or Ms Truss. He’ll calm political waters. He’ll be supported by the right-wing press. He’ll help the Tory Party creep up from its current rock bottom polling. Will he lift Conservative fortunes enough to win the next election? Unlikely, but if the 21st century has taught us anything so far, it’s never to dismiss the politically impossible. As first witness: call Donald Trump.
Mr Sunak may also drain significant support from the Yes movement. Without the madness of Johnson and Truss, anger may recede and thoughts of independence among undecideds abate somewhat. A General Election right now would be the most propitious time ever for those wanting independence.
It appears then, that the SNP – and Labour – have moral authority on their side, and political necessity barking at their heels, when it comes to their calls for a General Election. So what does Ms Sturgeon do beyond merely making demands, which won’t prick Mr Sunak’s conscience, or compel him to take the politically suicidal step of calling an election when his party’s fortunes have never been worse?
Well, Ms Sturgeon does have a few options, though none are good. She could call a Holyrood debate. That’s just more pointless talking. Should she lead national protest? There are demonstrations in London on Guy Fawkes Day demanding another election. Should – would – Ms Sturgeon get involved? She isn’t a politician of the street, that’s pretty clear.
The only other real option for Ms Sturgeon would be the nuclear option: collapsing Holyrood and calling a Scottish election as a way of exerting moral and political pressure on Mr Sunak. The Scotland Act says Parliament can be “dissolved” and an “extraordinary general election” called if two-thirds of MSPs back the resolution. Now, Greens and SNP combined don’t equal two-thirds of Holyrood’s seats.
So Ms Sturgeon would need Labour and LibDem support for such a move. Clearly, there’s no way she’d receive any backing if she tried to make a snap election about independence. She’d have to park her lead policy. But might she get support if she made it all about hurting the Tories in London?
It seems moot, however. Unlike Ms Truss, Mr Sunak has already called Ms Sturgeon. It appears to have been a relatively cordial exchange. She’s wished him well, and reiterated her call for an “early General Election”. Ms Sturgeon’s words certainly didn’t sound like those of a woman ready to go for the nuclear option.
So, we’re stuck in the realm of talk. Ms Sturgeon and Ms Starmer can make all the demands they want, but Mr Sunak won’t budge. Why would he unless he’s forced, somehow, to walk the plank? And there seems no real strategy to make him walk the plank. We’re left then with the likelihood of Mr Sunak in power until January 2025 at the latest, support for Labour and SNP potentially ebbing, and a crucial moment for the Yes movement lost.
Read more by Neil Mackay:
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There’s only one word to describe what the Tories are doing to this country: evil
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