THE Scottish Government has hailed figures showing that renewables output reached record levels in the second quarter that suit its political purposes while glossing over the awkward implications of what powered the rise concerned.
Following the SNP conference the Government noted that output from windfarms and the like rose by 36 per cent year on year in the three months to June beating the previous Q2 record by 25%.
The numbers lent fresh support to claims that renewables could ensure Scotland will enjoy a prosperous future without relying on the oil and gas industry, which the economic case for independence was based on in the 2014 campaign.
As the numbers had been in the public domain since 29 September, the timing of the announcement was notable.
It came after First Minister Nicola Sturgeon infuriated green types on whom the SNP is relying in its independence drive by suggesting at its conference that Scotland could use the proceeds of oil and gas taxation to support a £20bn investment drive.
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That raised questions about whether SNP ministers would oppose new developments with the required ideological fervour.
The Q2 announcement was supported by a breathy press release from industry body Scottish Renewables, which described Scotland as a “renewable energy powerhouse”.
But take a look at what drove the output increase and there are reasons for concern about the security of the supply involved and how little Scotland may benefit from the vast sums that are being generated by industry players.
The Scottish Government said the 36% increase in total first half renewable electricity generation was likely partly the result of higher wind speeds and increased rainfall. It said previously that renewable electricity output fell by 15.1% in 2021 “likely due to milder weather”.
The swings underline the fact that wind and hydro energy output levels will largely be determined by the weather.
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Scotland does not have enough of the infrastructure required to store renewable energy generated at times of relatively low demand.
In a paper on the economic case for independence released days after the Q2 numbers the Scottish Government said: “Creating more low-carbon pumped-storage hydro capacity … will further diversity our electricity supply mix, help security of supply and lessen reliance on high-cost gas generated electricity.”
It did not provide details of who would build the facilities concerned, or the amount of funding required and the likely timescales involved.
Drax has suggested it would cost more than £500m to double capacity at the Cruachan hollow mountain pumped storage hydro scheme in Argyll.
The quarterly Energy Statistics do not show whether the increase in renewable output was accompanied by a reduction in the usage of gas.
The closure of the Hunterston nuclear plant in Ayrshire in January left a huge gap to be filled.
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Figures released in December showed nuclear accounted for 25.7% of the electricity generation fuel mix in Scotland in 2020 against 14.7% in England and Wales.
Gas accounted for around 70% of energy consumption in Scotland in 2020, and rose by 2.4% during the year.
The rise in Q2 output also reflected a 10.5% increase in renewables capacity, which was largely due to the giant Moray East windfarm in the Moray Firth becoming fully operational in September last year.
With the number of green energy jobs created in Scotland trailing well below expectations, Moray East could serve as a case study in how renewables activity in Scotland has swelled the coffers of corporations based outside Scotland.
The 100-turbine windfarm’s owners include Europe’s EDP and Engie, Mitsubishi of Japan and China’s CTG.
Their returns on investment will be underpinned by a 15-year contract for difference (CfD) awarded by the UK Government in 2017.
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In 2019 the consortium agreed to sell the bulk of the output to Centrica, which owns Scottish Gas. Like SSE and ScottishPower, Centrica has been a big beneficiary of the surge in energy prices fuelled by the war in Ukraine.
The price firms get for renewable electricity is linked to the price of gas. The profits of SSE and ScottishPower’s generation arms are set to be capped under a UK Government plan to limit the revenues of renewable energy firms, which was developed by the disastrous Truss administration.
Overseas supply chain players appear to have been the biggest beneficiaries of manufacturing and construction contracts related to Moray East.
The contract to make the turbine blades went to a venture formed by Mistubishi and Denmark’s Vestas, which noted the win would support expansion of its plant on the Isle of Wight.
The jackets that support the turbines were made by French and Belgian groups. Some of the work was completed at a plant in Newcastle, where around 500 jobs were supported by the contract.
Scottish firms played relatively minor roles. Completed jackets went to Global Energy’s facility at Nigg to be prepared for installation offshore.
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The Moray East operations base is in Fraserburgh. However, the numbers involved in that sort of work are limited.
The Scottish Government has claimed the recent ScotWind licensing round will provide a massive boost to renewable energy generation and the economy.
Bidders had to submit supply chain development statements.
However, while ministers believe an independent Scotland would reap huge benefits from joining the EU membership of the organisation could create complications, not least through restrictions on state aid.
After being accused before Brexit of not doing enough to support the Burntisland Fabrications yard in Fife, which failed to win the wind turbine work expected, the Scottish Government claimed its hands were tied by EU state aid rules.
The UK Government announced plans to make CfD awards conditional on beneficiaries supporting local players only to find the EU threatening legal action on the grounds that such “discriminatory practices” breached World Trade Organisation principles.
In July the European Commission gloated: “As a result of the WTO consultations, the UK has now clarified that CfD beneficiaries do not need to achieve any particular level of UK content to receive payments.”
That about face left plenty for the Scottish Government to think about.
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