YOU know that staple scene in airplane disaster movies – the one where the voice of a cabin crew member comes over the intercom asking if there’s any passenger onboard who knows how to fly because the pilot just died? Well, that’s basically the British economy right now. We’re in free-fall with nobody at the controls.

The UK Government has sent the UK economy into a nosedive. This was years in the making, though. It wasn’t just the work of Liz Truss. Yes, she’s a disastrous fool, but she’s merely accelerated what was already happening: the inevitable ruination of Britain through Brexit.

This all plays directly into the only political question which seems to matter any more in Scotland: the constitution. The problem for unionists now is that it’s no longer just the Yes movement which has to answer tough questions when it comes to the economy. Today, unionists have just as many – if not more – questions to answer.

When staying in the Union looks even more dangerous than leaving, then the Better Together pitch is fatally undermined. Undecided voters are now offered the choice of remaining in a ruined economy, versus taking the chance of leaving the Union for the promise of a brighter economic future. Both choices carry huge risks, but the balance has shifted. The status quo is no longer a comfort blanket. The comfort blanket has been snatched away.

Yesterday, we saw those two visions compete for support. Jeremy Hunt, the fourth Tory Chancellor in four months, was, effectively, like the little Dutch boy, plugging a myriad leaks in Britain’s economic defences before the waters swept over us all. That deluge, evidently, was created by his Prime Minister, and worsened by his party’s own constitutional obsession: Brexit.

The alternative economic vision was one of life outside the Union pitched by Nicola Sturgeon. Perfect? Hardly. Risky? Definitely. Problematic? Yes. Were all questions and concerns answered? No. But set against what Britain now offers, the flaws in the SNP’s economic prospectus seem much less severe than they once did.

Independence was always going to come down to the economy. Scotland isn’t Ireland. The notion of Scottish independence in the 21st century isn’t about "freedom", as was the case for Ireland at the start of the 20th century. It isn’t about oppression and victimisation. Scottish independence is simply about whether life outside a Union, which appears broken beyond repair to many, will be better than life inside.

Scotland, remember, embraced Empire, making economic hay while the sun shone. Scotland’s relationship with England was always transactional: do the benefits of union outweigh the costs. Even in 2014, many saw the economic future safer inside the Union than outside. That’s a hard case to put these days. The great Better Together argument – that Scotland would be poorer and suffer economically outside the Union – no longer carries the weight it once did.

So would Scotland be richer and safer if independent? That’s a different question. But in terms of how these arguments are being presented by the two main representatives of Yes and No – the SNP and Tories – voters are offered "hope" from the Yes side versus "endurance" from the No side.

How many members of the public trust the Tories – and the Union they stand for – any more? They’ve crashed the economy. To be asked to support the Union on economic grounds due to "trust" in the British Government is intellectually absurd.

Then again, how many will really place "hope" in the SNP? It’s been, at best, a mediocre, if not disappointing, government. Yet it hasn’t crashed the economy. If another referendum were held today, who would Scottish voters trust on the economy? Nicola Sturgeon or Liz Truss? For many undecideds, rather than embracing the SNP’s vision, it may simply be a matter of seeing independence as less threatening than remaining in the union.

With millions now panicked over mortgages, pensions and household bills, it’s Tory London not nationalist Edinburgh which seems like the economic bogeyman. To some extent, many voters may feel that backing independence is less about accepting the SNP’s economic prospectus – flawed as it is – than escaping a ruinous future in the Union before it’s too late. It’s not a great sales pitch to say "hit the ejector button and let’s hope we make a safe landing", but it’s better than saying "stay on the plane and crash".

Hope – even a little hope – in the future is a much more appealing proposal politically than saying "stick around and endure the misery with me".

Now, of course, the fly in the ointment for the Yes movement is the almost assured prospect of Labour’s victory at the next General Election. But Labour is fatally flawed when it comes to making the case that it can save the UK economy and guarantee Scotland a brighter future in the union than that offered through independence. That flaw is the party’s embrace of Brexit.

Brexit is the heart of Britain’s current dysfunction. It’s the original wound which poisoned the body politic. Brexit was meant to be about taking back control, but it’s led to Britain now being controlled by the international markets rather than the sovereign government. The Tories have turned Britain into a version of Greece during its debt crisis: a weak nation answerable to forces outside the country.

Without Brexit, Britain would probably be suffering roughly the same pain as other developed nations right now. Brexit, however, is a force multiplier. It compounds and deepens for Britain every shock western nations suffer, from Covid to Ukraine.

The ace in the hole for the Yes movement is its promise of a return to Europe. For a Scottish electorate which overwhelmingly rejected Brexit, this may be the "vow" that really tilts opinion if there were to be another referendum. The question of another referendum also becomes much more likely in the event of a Labour General Election win – not inevitable, but clearly a greater possibility than under the Tories.

Away from think-tank cogitation and online partisan extremism, Scottish voters are fundamentally now presented with this choice: do you want to stay on that pilotless plane as it crashes, or bail out and hope that the parachute works?

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