WE are seeing this week a Labour party in ruthless election-winning mode. No matter how the votes divvy up at the next general election, the SNP will be left out in the cold. “We can’t work with them. We won’t work with them. No deal under any circumstances,” declared Sir Keir Starmer on Tuesday.

With that, he buried any ambiguity over Labour’s support for the Union along with the last remnants of Corbynism.

Strategically, as Labour see it, there was no other option than this emphatic rejection of the SNP. Mischievous Tory claims in 2015 that Labour would do a deal with the SNP are blamed by Labour for losing them that election.

At the same time, though, electoral analysts see no way for Labour to win a majority in Westminster in 2024 without seizing back seats in Scotland. The Fabian Society calculates that 25 seats are needed: the party currently has one.

So the fight is on. Can Labour regain its past glory at the ballot box in Scotland, while also rejecting any deals with the SNP?

Poll data paints a daunting picture for them. The latest opinion survey, in mid-August by Panelbase, puts Labour ahead of the Tories in Westminster voting intention by only three percentage points, at 23 per cent, while the SNP commands 44 per cent support.

Labour has won back some votes lost to the Tories, but as the Scottish Fabians note, Scottish Labour cannot get anywhere near where it needs to be this way. It must take votes off the SNP, which will be an altogether tricky proposition.

Ms Sturgeon’s party captured swathes of former Labour supporters between 2010 and 2015 and there is little sign of that support disintegrating.

This is because independence remains the big dividing line in Scottish politics. Supporters of the main parties are now “more polarised than ever”, says Sir John Curtice. Those who currently back membership of the EU are more likely than ever to back independence. Some 65 per cent of those who back Remain now support independence, up from 44 per cent in 2016.

Looking ahead to 2024, this sounds like a recipe for the usual Scottish electoral gridlock, with voters split into pro- and anti-independence camps, the SNP largely reaping the rewards on one side and the three pro-UK parties having to share the spoils on the other.

But here is the wildcard: the current gargantuan cost-of-living and economic crisis is unlikely to leave the electoral landscape unaltered, even in Scotland.

People’s bemusement/frustration/murderous fury with the Conservatives for slashing taxes for the wealthy and fuelling inflation, while public services fall apart before their eyes, could hardly fail to influence their voting decisions. Will it be enough to bring voters out of their constitutional bunkers?

Nicola Sturgeon wants to frame the 2024 Westminster poll as a “de facto referendum” on independence, but that dubious narrative is already being overtaken by the new compelling story that 2024 will be an epoch-defining Westminster election like 1997, when a hopeless Tory administration was finally sent packing by Labour.

Progressive, indy-friendly voters in Scotland will be faced with a choice between showing their support for independence by voting SNP – with no guaranteed gain from doing so – or actively helping kick out the Tories then and there by voting Labour. Many will be tempted to do the latter.

The SNP will need to do everything it can to stop them. This will no doubt begin with insisting the vote is really a referendum on independence. The problem is that everyone and their cat knows that it isn’t. Scottish Labour will counter the SNP message by arguing that voters should use their ballot to help give Labour a majority. The SNP’s old habit of painting Labour as Tory lapdogs will seem increasingly absurd set against the battle raging between Starmer and Truss for the soul of the UK.

Indeed, watch Labour turn the tables on Ms Sturgeon’s party: “Vote SNP to get Liz Truss”.

The Scottish Fabians see fertile ground in the 20 per cent of SNP and 20 per cent of Green voters who put Labour as their second preference in May’s local elections. They argue that a relentless focus on living standards, public services and climate change could help tempt this cohort of voters, who are pro-independence but motivated by social justice, to vote Labour in 2024.

Labour going into that election proposing a constitutional alternative to the status quo, including abolishing the Lords to replace it with a Senate of the nations and regions, could help.

But Scottish Labour’s task should not be underestimated. Electorally, the party is still a plucky mouse in the shadow of the SNP lion. Ms Sturgeon will pursue Starmer relentlessly with demands for a second referendum if he enters Downing Street and call him anti-democratic for refusing to back one.

She will hurl Labour’s acceptance of Brexit in his face. Progressive voters will be conflicted. Make no mistake, it will be a miracle if Scottish Labour manage to win 25 seats in 2024, or anything like it. A majority Labour government is hard, at this point, to envisage.

And that’s where things get even more interesting. In July, Sir Keir appeared to rule out any kind of arrangement with the Liberal Democrats after an election, just as he had with the SNP, including an informal one – worried, of course, about Tory attacks about a “coalition of chaos”.

The thing is, the Lib Dems could make significant gains in 2024. In fact, Truss and Kwarteng’s outlandish economic policy package with its deregulation and tax cuts for the wealthy, seems to signal fear of the Lib Dems in England. It’s not yet six months since Ed Davey’s party won Tiverton and Honiton from the Conservatives. The Tory majority was the biggest ever to be overturned in a by-election and underlined how vulnerable the Tories had become to the Lib Dems in their traditional heartlands. The Lib Dems could therefore be a more significant force after the next election.

For Labour, ruling out deals with everyone may make it easier to win an election, but it won’t make it easier to govern. Should Labour emerge as the largest party in 2024 but fall short of a majority, something will have to give.

Right now, though, Starmer’s sights are on winning and Scotland is top of the list.