Andy Maciver: Unionists beware: this Frost will leave Scots voters cold

One of those is Brexit. I voted Remain not out of any particular passion for the EU, but because I thought the benefits of Brexit would be highly likely to be outweighed by its problems and I felt that, on balance, what was essentially a Tory Party psychodrama would be best left to be discussed around the table at Conservative Association afternoon tea parties rather than inflicted on the populous.

Lord Frost, I can only presume, agreed with the core of that assessment at the time, and made a number of interventions about the economic damage which lay ahead if more people crossed the Leave box than the Remain one. Ironically, though, it was he who was tasked with figuring out how to leave the European Union, and many would surmise that he was more influential than any other Brit, including Boris Johnson, in shaping the UK’s future relationship with its former club mates.

Only the most vociferous Brexiter would tell you that it has been a galloping success so far, and yet its chief architect may very well be given ongoing responsibility for its development, from trade deals to the Northern Ireland Protocol. This is more an observation than a criticism; Brexit could yet be a long-term success story for the UK, yet it is surely close to indisputable that, so far, it has been rocky.

Lord Frost’s influence also appears to be growing in policy development on the transition to net zero. It has always been a curiosity of the Tory Party that it has allowed itself to be positioned as a herd of climate sceptics. There is really very little in the philosophical underpinning of the Tories that should make them thus.

This is a party whose icon, Margaret Thatcher, herself expressed concerns about climate change long before it was globally popular or understood. This is a party built on private enterprise, innovation and entrepreneurialism which, in the final analysis, will be the characteristics which will arrest climate change in a way that governmental intervention cannot. And it is a party stuffed full of members who, on the one hand, are fiercely protective of the natural beauty in which they live and yet, on the other, seem emotionally unable to countenance doing the same for the planet as a whole.

But then the Tories have long been a collection of contradictions. They have developed an almost instinctive opposition to anything which can be badged as sustainable, from wind farm developments to city cycle lanes. Lord Frost is feeding the beast by questioning the UK’s net zero agenda and that could have two severe repercussions. First, it could torpedo the UK’s global leadership on climate change. And, secondly, it could ensure that no Brit under the age of 40 will even give the Tories a second look at the ballot box.

They would be far from the only set of voters which Lord Frost will find rejects his strategy. The other will be Scots. For, on the UK Government’s constitutional policy, his Lordship has his eye on an equally consequential change of direction.

Read more: Please stop shooting the Union in the foot, Ms Truss

Over the last three years, a smattering of politicians and advisers have gradually but decisively changed the UK Government’s approach to its Scottish counterpart, and to Scotland in general. They realised that the fortunes of the SNP and the nationalist campaign were constantly improving not because of their popularity, but because of the Union’s unpopularity. There were no discernible pull factors towards the SNP in the period after the 2014 referendum, but there were a plethora of push factors away from the parties representing the UK. Nationalists weren’t winning; unionists were losing.

And so, their strategy has decisively shifted towards showing Scots that the Union works, rather than simply telling them it does, through initiatives such as the Levelling Up Fund. Small, incremental, but incredibly powerful in changing the psyche and shifting the centre of constitutional opinion.

For those who are unclouded by the emotion of politics, this is not all that difficult to understand. However, many Tories are not so unclouded; instead they are consumed by a determination that everyone is a nationalist – either a Scottish one or a British one. On the ground, though, most Scots do not fit neatly into these boxes. We deal with the reality that we have two governments, and we want them to work well together in our best interests.

Or put more simply, there are hundreds of thousands – perhaps millions – of people here who are not nationalists, but who do put Scotland first.

Lord Frost’s rhetoric, if it comes to fruition, puts a bomb under this entire strategy. It is, quite explicitly, to pick fights with First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP and to reassert the dominance of Westminster. He wants Ms Truss to show Ms Sturgeon who’s boss.

One in five Scots – the Tory voters – are going to love it. Finally, they will say, someone who can take on that woman. Another two in five – the SNP voters – will be blistering in their faux outrage, which will be just the incentive they need to turn up at the polling station at 7am on the day of the next General Election.

The Tories needn’t worry about that lot, though. They need to worry about the other two in five. The ones who have occasionally voted Tory through gritted teeth. The ones who have occasionally voted SNP out of sheer frustration at London. The ones who vote Labour and Liberal Democrat. The ones who voted No in 2014 but tutted their disapproval at the same time. The ones who want a new First Minister, but don’t want Westminster to ignore the First Minister that they have right now.

Those people will take one look at this new approach and turn the other way. This Frost will become a deep freeze.

Andy Maciver is Founding Director of Message Matters and Zero Matters

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