GHOSTS of the past are making an unwelcome return. Surging inflation, stagnant growth, pay rise demands, strikes and talk of a “class war”. And who should miraculously pop up on a picket-line but ex-miners’ leader Arthur Scargill, now 84.
But while there are parallels to what has gone before, this is not 1984 or even 1975, when inflation, unbelievably, topped 25%. Society is different, political parties are different and the trade unions do not have the membership numbers or power they once had 40 years ago.
Nonetheless, they still can cause enormous disruption to people’s lives and, politically, there are few things that emphasise party divisions more than strikes.
Nicola Sturgeon intervened yesterday, urging Boris Johnson’s government to “start doing their job; to get round the table to bring a resolution to this and to drop the anti-trade unionism and have some respect for workers across the economy”.
The PM branded the strikes a “terrible idea” and echoed the FM’s idea, declaring: “People should get around the table and sort it out.” Only not him or his ministers. Beer and sandwiches in Downing St are no longer on offer.
Johnson argues pay rises in line with soaring inflation would be “reckless” because they would lead to a 1970s-style wage-price inflation spiral. Without modernisation, he told the Cabinet, train operators risked going bust and passengers faced ever-increasing prices.
Yesterday, the UK Government upped the ante by announcing plans to change the law, enabling businesses to supply skilled agency workers to plug staffing gaps during industrial action.
Network Rail welcomed the move but the TUC accused Johnson of “cynically picking a fight with unions” and warned using less-qualified agency staff would “endanger public safety, worsen disputes and poison industrial relations”.
Perhaps a fairer way to approach the crisis would be to emulate other countries and legislate to have a minimum service level for essential services like the railways, which would mean people could go on strike if they felt they had to but there would at least be a means for people to get around.
Of course, while the PM condemns the industrial strife, he nonetheless sees it as providing a political opportunity to whack Labour; welcome, no doubt, after the months of battering he has taken from it over Partygate.
At PMQs, Johnson goaded Keir Starmer for not having “the gumption” to prevent Labour MPs supporting the RMT and joining picket lines.
The Conservatives can unequivocally condemn the strikers, accusing them of holding the country to ransom after taxpayers bailed out the rail industry during Covid to the tune of £16bn.
Labour, in contrast, is conflicted given its close ties with the trade union movement.
On the one hand, the comrades back strikers seeking to cope with the daily pressures of rising inflation, but, on the other, they know lots of other workers will suffer as a consequence.
Starmer ordered his MPs not to join the picket-lines but several did, including a junior minister and a whip.
Some Shadow Cabinet ministers are urging their leader to drop the threat of disciplinary action but the Chief Whip has been tasked to sort out the rebels. It’s expected he will do so after Saturday’s strike. Sackings are on the cards.
As a would-be PM, Starmer’s authority cannot be challenged. Signs of weakness are never liked by voters.
In Scotland, Anas Sarwar had no qualms and was out on the picket-line, supporting the strikers. This might not have helped Starmer present a united Labour front but it showed the Scottish Labour leader was his own man. Such Labour differentiation is a positive north of the border.
Earlier this week, a video from Starmer’s pitch for his party’s leadership was helpfully unearthed to show him earnestly declaring his devotion to the trade union movement, saying: “I’m Keir Starmer and I’m a proud trade unionist”. On his lapel was a “love unions” badge.
But one comrade, Sharon Graham, Unite’s new leader, accused the Labour leader of “hiding” and urged him to say if he was on the side of “workers or bad bosses”.
It’s suggested Starmer will not follow his predecessors and attend next month’s Durham Miners’ Gala. He is not listed as one of this year’s speakers.
It was, of course, in Durham, where Starmer was photographed downing a beer during lockdown. He faces the so-called “beergate” police inquiry, the conclusion of which is expected next month.
The conflict for the red knight is likely to continue – happily fuelled by Tory HQ – as the summer of discontent continues with more unions coming out on strike.
Indeed, yesterday unions warned holidaymakers they faced a summer of “massive disruption” as their members, who work for British Airways at Heathrow, backed industrial action over pay.
The GMB denounced the airline’s “pig-headedness” for making a “crumbs-from-the-table offer” of a 10% one-off bonus payment and insisting what was needed was a reinstatement of 10% “stolen from them last year with full back-pay and the 10% bonus”. Inflation is 9.1%.
Meanwhile, the TSSA rail union is balloting its members over strike action across several routes, including, the west and east coast lines, regards pay, conditions and job security.
And the NEU, the UK’s biggest teaching union, warned it would ballot its members on strike action this autumn if the Government failed to make an “inflation-plus” pay increase.
Nadhim Zahawi, England’s Education Secretary, said a teachers’ strike, following the Covid disruption to schooling, would be “unforgivable”.
As the rhetoric intensifies polls suggest voters are evenly divided between support for and opposition to the strikes. But this could well change as the autumn arrives and the cost-of-living squeeze gets tighter.
Politically, in the short-term, Johnson might score a few hits against Starmer and a conflicted Labour Party but, if the pain drags on beyond October, public pressure for the Government to intervene to sort the crisis out will grow.
In the end, Johnson’s failure to knock heads together to secure a resolution could come at a high price for the Tories.
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