Pity poor Rishi? Not likely, but the Chancellor is certainly having a tough time of it lately.
On top of the furore around his family’s tax affairs, the day job has unfolded into a week of woe for Rishi Sunak. It started with the news on Monday that the UK economy all but shuddered to a halt in February as GDP growth plunged to a scant 0.1 per cent, followed by Tuesday’s revelation that workers’ real pay is “falling noticeably” amid rampant inflation.
Sticking with that theme, the Office for National Statistics confirmed on Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index surged to a 30-year high of 7% in March, with plenty more certain to come. As reflected in yesterday’s dismal quarterly economic report from the Scottish Chambers of Commerce, businesses are struggling to mount a recovery from the Covid pandemic as inflationary pressures pile up.
Through it all, Mr Sunak has repeatedly reached for the fig leaf of “global issues” to camouflage the Government’s part in this crisis in the cost of living and doing business.
He was keen on Monday to focus on the fact that growth remained positive, be it by the smallest of margins: “I welcome the positive growth seen across the economy in February, which continues to recover from the pandemic, boosted by the support we provided.
READ MORE: UK economy stalls with concerns that growth may shift into reverse
“Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine is creating additional economic uncertainty here in the UK, but it is right that we are responding robustly against Putin’s unprovoked invasion.”
And again on Wednesday, in response to the surge in inflation: “We’re seeing rising costs caused by global pressures in our supply chains and energy markets which could be exacerbated further by Russian aggression in Ukraine.
“I know this is a worrying time for many families which is why we are taking action to ease the burdens by providing support worth around £22 billion in this financial year, including the most vulnerable through our Household Support fund.”
Leaving aside for just a moment the debate on whether the Government has done enough to assist the low and middle-income households getting hammered by higher costs, it is certainly true that supply chain disruptions were pushing up prices prior to Russia launching its invasion on February 24. It’s worth noting that energy regulator Ofgem announced the eye-watering 54% hike in household bills on February 3 in response to a jump in wholesale oil and gas prices during the previous six months.
Mr Sunak was accused of a “pitifully inadequate response” to this in last month’s spring statement, when he announced a £350 “rebate” to help with the £693 annual increase in the typical household’s energy bill. Critics were quick to point out that £200 of this support is actually a loan that will need to be repaid in £40 instalments over five years, storing up future strain for consumer finances.
READ MORE: Scottish economic recovery in jeopardy as prices spiral further
Businesses that took out Coronavirus support loans during the height of the pandemic understand this all too well, as many are now struggling with those repayments amid a slumping economy, soaring prices and what will likely be a substantial reduction in consumer spending.
Employers and their workers are also as of this month sharing the burden of the Government’s controversial 1.25% increase in National Insurance payments, which is expected to raise £39bn to spend on health and social care over the next three years. Here again the Chancellor’s spring statement was a bitter disappointment to those arguing that such a tax hike comes at completely the wrong time and should be cancelled.
No government can control global developments, but by failing to act within the realms of its jurisdiction this UK administration is proving deaf to the cries of genuine pain from the real-world economy and its workers.
Ministers at Holyrood – where there is talk of a tourist tax and workplace parking levies – must also take note. These and other initiatives such as the deposit return scheme may be born of the best of intentions, but now is simply not the time to be adding even the slightest to the cost of doing business.
This evolving economic crisis has the potential to wreak similar destruction on the lives of ordinary people as did the pandemic, and requires the same no-holds-barred response. If businesses go bust en masse, so too will disappear jobs that support people’s livelihoods and the tax base that funds public services.
Targeted restoration of Covid business rates and VAT relief for the hardest-pressed sectors such as tourism and retail is a sensible first step, and a price cap similar to that in place for households would protect small and medium-sized businesses from some of the worst of energy price increases.
READ MORE: Tesco profits triple, but warns on inflation
Repayments on Covid business loans should be suspended for those that can’t currently afford them. Such a move admittedly runs the risk of propping up unviable businesses, but then again loans made to firms that no longer exist will never be repaid.
Some officials would likely argue that the Treasury can’t afford such largess when repayments on the Government’s Covid-swollen debts have gone up by more than 50%. A sizeable proportion of the UK’s debt is in the form of index-linked bonds with interest rates that go up in line with inflation, while more than a third is held by the Bank of England which has been increasing its benchmark interest rate in an effort to temper rising prices.
On the other hand, inflation has increased income from VAT and rising wages have boosted income tax. In addition, the decision to freeze income tax thresholds will add an estimated £21bn to the Chancellor’s coffers.
Mr Sunak has said it is now “more important than ever” to take a responsible approach to public finances to avoid burdening future generations with further debt. Such sentiments sound both noble and sensible, but the unspoken yet widely-acknowledged truth is that much of the current reserves are being kept back to fund tax cuts ahead of the next General Election.
This is not a question of if the Treasury can bear the burden of support for hard-pressed businesses and individuals, but whether it can afford not to. Delaying the release of vital assistance for 12 or more months for political gain – with all the suffering and damage that would come between now and then – would be pitiful indeed.
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