By Ian R Mitchell
WAS the coronavirus a pandemic? Literally, yes – a disease which spread worldwide. But most people would argue that “pandemic” encompasses more, meaning a disease producing a very large number of deaths, as in the Spanish Influenza of 1918-19. Deaths from Covid-19 are still less than one per cent of the total estimated deaths from that pandemic, and on a per capita basis, (accounting for growth in world population since) less than 0.35%.
According to World Death Clock the total number of deaths attributable to Covid-19 since the outbreak in Wuhan is now 400,00. The virus has raised average daily global deaths in that time by about 1.5%, that is to say that 98.5% of people who died in the world during this epidemic, died of something else. In comparison WHO estimates annual average influenza deaths at between 300,000 and 600,000. Figures can be inaccurate and need interpretation, but they are a guide.
Pandemonium, from Greek, means the release of all demons, and many are coming. Those making predictions tend to adopt the default worst-case scenario, as when epidemiologists months ago were predicting up to 15 million deaths from the coronavirus. So far they are out by a factor of more than 30. Covid-19 was one of Donald Rumsfeld’s Unknown Unknowns. But with the economy we are dealing more with Known Knowns, that is, if you shut an economy down by 50% for three months, that equates to a 12.5% fall in GDP.
The Governor of the Bank of England may be over-pessimistic thinking the economy will take a hit of 1929 proportions (a 35% fall in GDP). But the economic impact of lockdown will make the Brexit hit seem like a fleabite. British vehicle production in April/May this year was one per cent of the comparable figure in 2019. Redundancies in North Sea oil and others sectors are announced daily. Predictions from the UN that a collapse in raw material prices will bring famine to 15-25 million people in Africa and Latin America may not be fully verified. But both above predictions will be more correct than the predictions of the epidemiologists. And as ever, the poor will disproportionately suffer.
There is no immunity to this virus, and a long wait for an effective vaccine. Most epidemiologiststs think it will return. Will we do the same again? Certainly, close airports to civilian traffic; our incompetent bumbling Government did not and, as the virus cannot swim, are guilty of culpable homicide in consequence. Close schools, sports and entertainment events, quarantine the most vulnerable, but, the productive economy must be kept going. Much shutdown was so to no purpose, for example building sites – which remained open in Germany without serious problems. The evidence does not point to any great increase in infections and deaths amongst workers (obviously excepting care home and hospital workers) who carried on working in food production, warehouses, postal services, cleansing and elsewhere. The vast majority of those who died were elderly, infirm and those with existing health conditions.
Closing down, without serious risk assessments, large sections of the productive economy was a serious error and disproportionate response. If Covid-19 returns on the same scale and we react in the same way, then that will unleash economic catastrophe. Reason, not fear and epidemiological guesswork, must govern the response, if there is a next time.
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