Alan Roden: Tories face a election bloodbath if EU polls go ahead

Already trying – and failing – to resign, she faces leading her broken party into a brutal European election and facing an inevitable and justifiable voter backlash.

This contest, if it takes place, could be an existential moment for the Conservative Party.

Having failed to deliver Brexit, and with nothing to offer Remain voters, it will be a bloodbath for the Tories south of the Border.

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Ukip may have splintered, but Brexit-supporting candidates are certain to prosper. Most distressing of all is the prospect of far-right hatemonger Tommy Robinson becoming an elected politician.

Scotland, so the narrative goes that some would have us believe, is immune from Ukip’s anti-migrant and bigoted politics.

Not true, of course, as the last elections in 2014 proved when David Coburn picked up more than 10 per cent of votes and a seat at the heart of European democracy.

At Edinburgh’s City Chambers, on the day the results were announced, the assembled political journalists gave Mr Coburn his first media grilling and it wasn’t pretty.

He told us about an air freight business he had set up but refused to reveal its name; when asked if he was now Scottish Ukip leader said ‘I’ve no idea’; and questioned if he would deliver value for taxpayers’ money, he replied ambiguously: “I will participate in those things worthwhile participating in.”

Mr Coburn was also asked about his dream job, and replied: “I want to be an archaeologist.”

Well, after five years of controversy, bizarre antics and a racism row after he told me he referred to SNP Minister Humza Yousaf as Abu Hamza, he is at last surely destined to become a political fossil.

It is inconceivable that Scots voters will send this buffoon back to Brussels, even though he has since left Ukip and joined the Brexit Party.

This new party will rise "like a phoenix" according to Brexiter Tory MP Daniel Kawczynski, but it surely won’t soar north of the Border.

In a quirk that demonstrates how the independence referendum continues to dominate Scottish politics, it’s likely that the Scottish Conservatives will prosper in an election while their English counterparts suffer.

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There are, after all, one million Scots who voted Leave in 2016 and Ruth Davidson’s party will be offering to fully "respect" the result.

In fact, Davidson can make a double deal with voters to stand by the results of both constitutional referendums in Scotland’s recent political history.

A European election will not only be a proxy vote on the Brexit process, but inevitably will also become yet another battle about Scotland’s future.

Polls show that a majority of Scots don’t want to go through the division of yet another independence referendum anytime soon, no matter how much they might want to stop Brexit.

Backing for a confirmatory referendum on Brexit should not be equated with general support for more constitutional referenda.

Too many senior figures in the SNP still fail to understand just how toxic, divisive and distressing the 2014 experience was for so many of their fellow countrymen and women. Until they listen to and learn from No voters, the independence cause will continue to lag in the polls.

But the Nationalists will still relish a European election, where their mixed record running public services can be largely overlooked.

The SNP’s pitch is simple: Scotland voted to Remain; the only way to send a message that Scotland wants to stay in the EU is to vote SNP.

The aim for the Nationalists will be to increase their MEP contingent from two to three, which will then inevitably be held up as a boost for independence. There is a warning sign here for No-voting Remain supporters – consider how your vote will be used by the SNP after any election.

Among the Nationalists’ targets will be disgruntled Labour voters, as Ian Blackford confirmed on the BBC Sunday Politics Scotland yesterday.

“I would say to Labour… be very careful with what you are doing or quite simply you will pay a price at the ballot box in Scotland,” he said.

The SNP will be delighted if Labour becomes the Brexit midwife. Rarely do political parties offer their opponents such generous gifts.

But Labour appears determined to do just that.

Asked about the talks with the Tory government, shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey told Andrew Marr: “The overall mood is quite a positive and hopeful one.”

The UK party leadership’s red line of ending freedom of movement has left many Labour members distraught.

Senior figures are questioning why they belong to a party that refuses to make the positive argument for economic migration, regardless of the challenges on the doorsteps in some parts of the UK.

Scottish leader Richard Leonard is a proud trade unionist who champions solidarity, so he must be increasingly exasperated with the behaviour of his colleagues in Westminster.

If European elections take place, what is the answer is to the question "why should I vote Labour?"

The party is letting down its support base which overwhelmingly backs Remain.

Holding on to the party’s two MEP seats, which Labour achieved in 2014 by coming just a few percentage points behind the SNP, looks like a forlorn hope.

Elsewhere, Scottish Green leader Patrick Harvie has been talking up his party’s hopes of winning one of the six seats up for grabs.

But what do the Greens offer that the SNP doesn’t?

The more obvious home for those feeling politically homeless is the LibDems, with its robust pro-Remain pro-UK stance.

The Independent Group of MPs, now registering as a political party called Change UK, is in talks south of the Border about a non-aggression pact with the Liberals.

It will make for an intriguing contest if they throw their support behind the LibDems in Scotland, while perhaps persuading them to stand aside in an English region.

Taking part in the European elections will be relished by some political parties and feared by others.

But with party lines now shattered and trust eroded in our political institutions, this will be an unexpected opportunity for voters to tell politicians exactly what they think.