A FEW weeks ago I was out with two Czech friends for dinner. Both are highly qualified research scientists working for top Scottish universities, have been settled in this country for years, and happily contribute their expertise and taxes.
Brexit, however, is drastically changing the way they think. Not only has lack of clarity from the UK Government over future arrangements for EU citizens hurt and unsettled them, but their work prospects are deteriorating too; pan-European research funding is already starting to dry up at UK universities.
As scientists, they look at evidence and make judgements, and as far as their own lives are concerned, they conclude that the Hard Brexit Theresa May seems intent on pursuing will be bad for them personally and professionally. With a heavy heart, they are seriously considering leaving Scotland. And they won’t be the only ones.
Hearing my friends talk this way is sad and grim beyond measure, not only on a personal level, but because of what it will likely mean for a fragile Scottish economy faced with acute demographic problems and skills shortages in a number of key sectors. Put simply, Scotland needs more migrants, not fewer, if our economy is to prosper and pay for the public services we want for ourselves and our loved ones.
But the Tories’ chaotic, opaque, highly-politicised Westminster-centric approach to the Brexit negotiations can only lead one to the conclusion that Mrs May and her cabinet are willing not only to ignore the specific needs of Scottish demography, but trash our economy if that’s what it takes to deliver a Hard Brexit for The Shires.
The extent of this disaster was laid bare at the weekend in research by the Scottish Government which concluded that the 128,000 EU nationals working in Scotland are each worth an average of £34,400 to the economy a year, which totals £4.42bn.
As the data outlined, they work across the Scottish economy, but are particularly heavily represented in spheres such as tourism, the creative industries, health and social care, farming and food processing. In the latter sector, a quarter of all employees are EU nationals, while in seafood processing, they represent 58 per cent of staff, 70 per cent in Grampian.
This comes on top of the bleak recent research by the Centre for Cities, that concluded Aberdeen would be the biggest UK loser from a Hard Brexit, while both Glasgow and Edinburgh would lose hundreds of millions a year in economic output, partially down to attracting fewer migrants.
Clearly not all EU citizens will leave the country, but if even a proportion do – let’s say 25 per cent - the effects will be potentially devastating to the Scottish economy, particularly in sectors we native Scots are no longer willing to work in. This isn’t simply scaremongering from bitter “Remoaners”; the Royal College of Nursing recently noted a 96 per cent drop in registrations from other EU countries since the Brexit referendum. The care sector is also starting to collapse, partially due to the drop in the pound making wage packets worth less to Eastern European workers who can simply move somewhere else.
And if we’re struggling now, it’s only going to get worse. Over the next 25 years, the number of pensioners in Scotland is expected to rise by a quarter – me among them - many of whom will probably live longer than ever, with a litany of costly long-term medical conditions. Who is going to pay for our rising pension, health and care home costs when Scotland’s birth rate remains so low?
The only practical and logical answer to this question, in the short, medium and long-term, is encouraging people to come and live in Scotland. And that’s why it is absolutely imperative that Holyrood is given the powers to create an immigration policy that will suit our distinct and pressing needs.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has rightly been banging this drum for the last 16 months, with cross-party committees at both Holyrood and Westminster backing the idea in principle. Don’t get me wrong, it would no doubt be problematic to have different immigration policies in different parts of the UK. But it’s certainly not impossible, and since Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, and thus support free movement, it is an entirely legitimate demand.
There appears, then, to be cross party support. But what has been sorely lacking from the debate is any sign from the Scottish Conservatives that they are willing to put the needs of the economy above the increasingly disastrous political strategies and objectives of their awful Westminster colleagues. Indeed, neither leader Ruth Davidson nor Scottish Secretary David Mundell has done anything concrete to further Scotland’s case, despite laughable claims to represent the business community.
If they continue to stand by and let Mrs May knowingly, willingly ride roughshod over Scotland’s economic interests in such a pernicious and obvious way, then the union they all claim to value above all - the UK - truly lies in tatters. Over to you, Ruth.
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