THESE are dangerous times across the world. So many crises are unfolding that it can be difficult to keep abreast of developments. News that Iraqi government forces and Iranian-trained Iraqi paramilitaries were massing south of the oil rich city of Kirkuk, possibly preparing a major attack against Kurdish forces there, is a potentially catastrophic development. It is hard to overstate the dire consequences that would ensue.
Should fighting break out, it would most likely plunge Iraq into another civil war. The regional, international and humanitarian implications would be profound. The stand-off between the central government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Erbil comes just two weeks after the Kurds held an independence referendum.
Since then, Iraq’s government has taken measures to isolate the region, including banning international flights and calling for a halt to crude oil sales. Kirkuk, into which Kurdish Peshmerga fighters moved when the Iraqi army collapsed in the face of Islamic State (IS) in 2014, has long been a bone of contention between Baghdad and Erbil.
In taking Kirkuk the Kurds prevented the region’s oil fields from falling into the hands of IS. But now that the jihadists have all but been routed from their Iraqi territorial caliphate, it appears that Iraqi and Kurdish forces, who until recently were allies in that fight, are threatening each other. Oil and gas are a significant factor in this. Just days before the Kurdish referendum, Russian state-oil giant Rosneft announced its latest investment, to help Iraqi Kurdistan develop its natural gas industry. Industry sources estimate the deal to be worth more than $1 billion (£750 million), with Iraq’s Kirkuk Province sitting at the heart of supplies.
Should civil war occur, it would involve Turkey and Iran, both of which also vigorously oppose Kurdish statehood aspirations. Iran wields considerable influence over its neighbour Iraq, where the majority of the population is also Shia Muslim.
Tehran’s Shia paramilitaries are among the forces against the Kurds in Kirkuk. To a sizeable degree the international community bears some responsibility for this latest crisis. The UK Government along with the United States, the EU and UN were almost universally opposed to a Kurdish referendum, feeling it would hamper the fight against IS.
A lack of rigorous diplomatic mediation as tensions grew between Baghdad and Erbil as the referendum vote beckoned allowed the crisis to escalate. Events on the ground have outpaced lethargic diplomatic efforts. Rightly, the UK and its allies remain wary of getting embroiled in Iraq even though they are already committed militarily in the fight against IS. But diplomacy needs to be the order of the day, not least because, should Iraq slip into civil war, IS will be the winner. The diplomatic process must be put back on track. Time is running out to roll back Iraq from a conflict that will have an impact far beyond its borders.
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