SO, after a suspension of the debate in the aftermath of the Westminster attack, the SNP, backed by the Greens, have won the support they needed for their plan to ask Westminster for the power to hold another independence referendum. The Scottish Parliament has spoken, but where does the conversation go from here?
Nicola Sturgeon has always made her position clear: Theresa May should abide by the vote in the Scottish Parliament, although during the debate many opposition MSPs made the fair point that Ms Sturgeon is insisting the Prime Minister should abide by the vote at Holyrood even though the First Minister herself has ignored Holyrood votes that have not gone her way. The debate this time around also lacked the kind of consensus which developed in 2012 when Holyrood last debated a motion on an independence referendum – and consensus on such an idea should always be the aim. This time, the debate was tetchy, angry and frustrated, and suggests that any referendum campaign will have a similar tone.
But the SNP does have a parliamentary vote behind it, even if they are still far from achieving a political consensus. The party, with one eye on how the EU referendum campaign might go, made it clear before the last election that it would seek to hold another referendum if there was an exit from the EU against Scotland’s will and that is what is happening.
However, the SNP does not have the total electoral dominance it enjoyed a few years ago, and is anxious to get the referendum out of the way before the 2021 elections when its support could well slide again, thereby putting the referendum question off the agenda. But, even with a vote at Holyrood, a referendum should not be held until voters have absolute clarity on what Brexit means; there then needs to be time to discuss what alternatives the SNP are suggesting.
In the meantime, the First Minister is gambling against public opinion and how it might go. The Conservative leader Ruth Davidson pointed out that most polls show a majority of Scots are against a referendum and Ms Sturgeon’s gamble is that, by setting Holyrood against Westminster, she can turn that situation around. In reality, the situation could go one of two ways: anger at Westminster might deepen but so too might fatigue at all the talk of a referendum and the sound of sabres being constantly rattled.
In the more immediate future, there is the question of what happens after the vote and with the meeting between the PM and the FM failing to produce any kind of breakthrough, Mrs May and Ms Sturgeon must now compromise.
That might look difficult at the moment, but a window for any referendum could be found that allows it to be held after the results of the Brexit negotiations are clear - voters also have to be given a decent time in a referendum campaign to consider the consequences of Brexit, which is likely to take us into 2020 or beyond.
Mrs May and Ms Sturgeon may have Brexit and Scottish independence at the front of their minds right now. But the aim of any deal on a referendum must be to give voters the clarity they need on Brexit – and time enough to consider its consequences.
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