TOM Watson has now accepted the sheer scale of the task facing Labour in its attempts to win power in 2020.
It seems clear from the words of the deputy party leader that Labour high command, while it would love a major revival in Scotland, is not banking on one any time soon; indeed, winning back a handful of seats north of the Border, Mr Watson admitted, would not be enough to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.
So this means Labour is setting its sights firmly on England. But where will the seats come from?
Much is resting on the votes next Thursday in the Copeland and Stoke on Trent Central by-elections to give Labour an indication of where it stands, particularly regarding the Ukip threat and working class voters.
Copeland looks trickier than Stoke. The fact Theresa May turned up this week in Cumbria showed the Conservatives believe they have a good chance of snatching the seat from Labour.
Stoke appears to be a different matter. The Hillsborough row that has engulfed Ukip leader Paul Nuttall has blunted his campaign’s momentum and Labour is quietly hopeful it will hang onto the seat albeit with a smaller majority and on a turn-out, possibly in the low 40s.
Much, then, is resting on Stoke Central, an overwhelmingly working class seat, because it will give a sign as to how well Ukip can eat into Labour’s traditional vote.
Plus, of course, Stoke attracted the label of Britain’s “Brexit capital” after almost 70 per cent of its electorate voted to leave the European Union.
In other words, if Ukip cannot win in Stoke Central, where can it win?
With Mr Corbyn’s Labour Party running 16 points behind the Tories, 33 on the economy, and with a poll showing it is now in third place behind Ukip in working class areas, when Mr Corbyn arrives in Perth next Friday morning for the Scottish Labour conference just hours after the results, it could well prove to be a seminal moment in this Parliament not just for Labour but for Ukip too.
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