Next Sunday, the people of Catalunya go to the polls to choose their new
government. However, this election will have further implications than
merely a change in seats for Catalan political parties. Due to the
intransigence of the Spanish state, this vote has been given the
status of a proxy for a referendum on Catalan independence. Indeed,
Catalan nationalist leaders have said in recent weeks that a victory
for them would launch a "road map" to Catalan independence within 18
months.
I will be there, as an election observer at the invitation of the
Catalan government. That said, I certainly won't be neutral. I am firmly
supporting Catalan democracy. Catalunya is a nation, and has a right
to choose, and absolutely nobody should stand in the way of a
democratic expression of will.
My Catalan colleagues watched our own experience of an independence
referendum one year ago with a great deal of envy and frustration. The
cooperation between the UK government and the Scottish government –
the signing of the Edinburgh Agreement, the explicit agreement to
respect the result of that vote no matter what the outcome - was a
good news story for democracy and an example the State of Spain would do well to follow.
Instead, what should be an energising debate
about Catalunya's place in the world has instead become a divisive and
frustrated binary argument. In the absence of a democratic process,
the result can only be festering frustration, and I think there is a
real risk of that frustration spilling over.
This point absolutely underlines a key difference between Scotland and
Catalunya. Whereas nobody anywhere in Scottish or UK politics
seriously thought that we did not have the right to make the decision,
regardless of their views on yes or no, in Madrid especially the unity
of Spain is a matter of theology. This attitude is going to need
something of a speedy reformation if Spanish politicians are going to
continue to claim to be democrats.
The alternative is being seen as deliberately ignoring a democratic,
peaceful decision of the Catalan people in order to keep Catalan taxes
flowing to the central Spanish coffers. As Spain's wealthiest and most
economically productive region, accounting for about a quarter of
Spain's tax revenue, Spain needs Catalunya
on the books. Indeed, take Catalunya out of Spain's numbers and Spain
is back in the economic danger zone just as it looks like they're coming out of
it.
For Catalans, as with many Scots, the wish for independence is not
just down to questions of identity, language and history, but there is
also an underlying rejection of the dominant, central government. Many
Catalans do not see the conservative, free-market orientation of the
Spanish government as compatible with their own political preferences
and understandably believe that they could manage their own economy
more effectively independently rather than through the current
centralised system. This is certainly a sentiment many in our own
country would sympathise with.
As we saw in our own referendum too, the EU has not exactly been forthcoming on
the question of independence and EU membership, and I fully expect that
this chilly neutrality will continue. However, the EU is pragmatic and
when the votes are counted, from a Brussels perspective a Catalan
passport looks very much like a Spanish one. The issues, though, from
a Brussels perspective, are way more complicated than they were in
Scotland's case - the Eurozone has zero - nada - rules on how to deal
with such an eventuality and the markets will be watching.
However, Catalunya is a nation, and has a right to choose. That is
absolutely clear. And the EU is pragmatic enough and flexible enough
to adapt – as it did with the fall of the Iron Curtain, the
reunification of Germany, the exit of Greenland, and on many other
occasions - and because the alternative is simply anti-democratic,
anti-European, and potentially explosive.
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