IT IS quite an achievement for a politician who was on the losing side of a devastating, supposedly generational argument a year ago.

Her party has swollen in membership, it won an unprecedented 56 of the country’s 59 seats (at one time considered a straight mandate for independence), and Nicola Sturgeon, at the age of 45, is the dominant political figure in Scotland and a key figure in the events across these islands.

You could say she has time on her side. After all, when Winnie Ewing got to say: “The Scottish Parliament, adjourned on the 25th day of March in the year 1707, is hereby reconvened,” she was in her 70th year.

But Ms Sturgeon’s natural caution – to avoid “neverendum” accusations, find legitimate triggers and above all to go again only when the portents appear favourable – means that the greatly increased party membership, swollen by the influx of members drawn from the wider Yes Campaign, will be applying ever stronger pressure on her to declare a second referendum.

She will resist this and manage these pressures. Her hand remains strong. Her position is unassailable. Indeed, there is probably not a politician in the UK who has less need to guard her back.

But momentum can fizzle out and apathy set in, so it will be intriguing to see how the First Minister manages the coming conference season. A year ago it was rock-star venues and "Nicolamania". This year it will be down to the hard yards.

On the page opposite she argues that, a year on from the referendum, the legacy is a more politically energised and self-confident nation. We share that view, regardless of the direction in which that fresh political engagement manifests itself.

But on the question of another referendum she is gnomic. She cites austerity, nuclear weapons, Europe and the alleged failure of “the vow” as factors driving Scots increasingly into a future Yes camp.

She repeats her stock argument that only the people in democratic votes can decided whether there is to be another referendum but we know it will not be the people who decide what goes into an SNP manifesto.

Scottish Secretary David Mundell demands that Ms Sturgeon must declare her hand yet he has not told what will be in the Tory manifesto for Holyrood 2016. No party will show its hand yet.

An invigorated and enlarged SNP poses both opportunities and problems for Ms Sturgeon. That huge new membership will put enough pressure on her to declare on a future referendum, or more likely the detail of the triggers laid down.

The First Minister's belief is that Scotland is “a nation re-energised and more confident about itself than at any time in our history”. That belief can be shared also by supporters of the Union. No-one should assume the direction of travel thereafter.

If the price of oil continues to plummet, if the currency issue is problematic as the last time, if the economic case cannot be made, then even the formidable Ms Sturgeon would face a major challenge to win a subsequent referendum. Then again, she knows that and it is why we will have to bide our time for the SNP manifesto and what it has to say openly and between the lines.