THE latest poll of polls makes grim reading for Scottish Labour and Jim Murphy. Averaging all the major opinion polls in Scotland conducted since the middle of March, confirms the SNP's commanding lead. Indeed, 'commanding' hardly does it justice. With support running at 48 per cent, the Nationalist lead looks overwhelming. On a uniform swing, they would win 53 of Scotland's 59 seats. Labour, more than 20 points in arrears on 27 per cent, would secure five of the 40 seats they held when parliament was dissolved. Mr Murphy's own stronghold, East Renfrewshire, would not be among them, according to the latest constituency polling by the Tory peer Lord Ashcroft.
Mr Murphy, who won the Scottish Labour leadership four months ago, published his first manifesto yesterday but what he really needs is a miracle.
For all his energy and drive, Labour's campaign has not gone as smoothly as it might. As the Eds Miliband and Balls strive to position Labour as a reassuringly centre-ground party south of the Border, highlighting economic responsibility and concerns over immigration, Mr Murphy must cast the Scottish party in a more radical light, proving it stands to the left of the SNP on a range of issues. This tension has led to confusion, not least over Mr Murphy's claims about deficit reduction. Trailing so badly in the polls, the last thing he needs is to be accused of misleading voters. It has also led to a sense that Mr Murphy has been left fighting the election almost single-handedly. Mr Miliband has campaigned in Scotland but visits by his shadow cabinet have been notable by their rarity. And then there is the question of Mr Murphy himself. Usually seen as coming from the right of his party, is he the right man to point Scottish Labour to the left?
No manifesto has the power to work miracles but Scottish Labour's 90-page booklet sets out a policy platform that could win wide support. Like other Scottish party manifestos it looks ahead to next year's Holyrood election but Labour's spending pledges are based on re-distributive measures promised by Mr Miliband if he become Prime Minister. Thus Labour's mansion tax on those living in £2million homes would pay for 1000 nurses in the Scottish NHS if - and it is a big if - Mr Murphy finds himself running the Scottish NHS next year. Similarly, Labour's tax on bankers' bonuses would fund training for young people unemployed for more than a year.
Such promises reveal Labour's true colours, Mr Murphy says, and show the value of remaining part of a UK where wealth can be transferred from rich to poor regardless of national borders. That, he insists, stands in stark contrast to the SNP's push for full fiscal autonomy.
Some weeks ago, the Scottish Labour leader said voters would "switch late and switch big" to his party. The polls which paint such a dreadful picture for Labour also show there are large numbers of undecided voters, up to 40 per cent in the key battleground of Glasgow. Labour may yet save more than a handful of seats but if it does, Mr Murphy will be right about one thing: voters left it late.
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