The SNP's second-term majority at Holyrood is expected to produce a legislative flurry, with bills on alcohol minimum pricing, sectarianism and Scottish Water likely to dominate the agenda.
But perhaps the most controversial proposal will be the Government’s plans for a single Scottish police force, details of which will be announced by Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill next month.
Although the proposal is almost certain to pass (Labour also supports the measure) it is still likely to divide opinion across the country.
Some fears about the move are legitimate. The status quo of eight forces ensures that eight chief constables have political and operational independence from the Government. Would one chief for the whole country be more or less vulnerable to interference?
The accountability question is also pertinent. If eight forces are rolled into one, what will happen to the vital local link provided by police boards, currently comprising councillors who should have a deep knowledge of their communities?
There are also valid concerns about such a radical move being driven by cost, not quality of policing.
According to the official business case for a single national police force, leaked to the Sunday Herald, after five years £47 million would be saved on officer costs and £66m on non-uniformed police staff.
The latter figure could be significant. Over the years officers have been freed up for frontline duties from desk-based roles filled by non-uniformed staff. If their numbers are slimmed down, could a process that has put more bobbies on the beat be at risk of being reversed?
However, there is a strong argument that the UK’s financial situation makes the status quo impossible to maintain. Given that the Scottish Government has committed to maintaining NHS funding against a backdrop of cuts, every other area of spending must expect reductions.
In this context, a single force could significantly reduce duplication, deliver efficiencies and enhance the co-ordination of policing.
The Metropolitan Police is not enjoying a vintage year, but its structure provides a solid precedent for change. If London and its boroughs can be served by one integrated force, responsible for a population bigger than Scotland’s, it might seem inevitable that this country is ripe for reform of police structures.
But solving the accountability deficit is the biggest challenge. According to the business case, a single force would have local policing units linked to councils. We need to know more about the detail to be convinced that accountability will be protected and, ideally, enhanced.
The move could also trigger reviews of parts of the public sector that are candidates for de-cluttering – Scotland, a country of five million people, has 22 health boards, and a whopping 32 councils. With dozens of chief executives and finance directors on six-figure salaries, there must be scope for a merging of services.
Reshaping our public sector has begun. The police service is a leading candidate for change. But the new model must address the potential pitfalls in creating a single force.
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