Winter energy blackout plan 'could cost lives'

But if that fails blackouts will be imposed posing fears that vulnerable people will be placed at risk.

Energy network operator National Grid ESO is bringing in a “demand flexibility service” running from November to March, to ensure people are rewarded for making energy savings.

It said that it had worked with suppliers, the energy industry, the market regulator Ofgem and the UK Government to "ensure it is ready for the winter and capable of delivering the required level of participation".

It would mean that households would be rewarded for using appliances, or charge their electric cars at times when there is the lowest consumer demand such as overnight. Off peak electricity times are roughly between 10pm and 8am, but vary between suppliers.

But it warned if their demand flexibility plans are not successful, there was the potential to "interrupt supply" to some customers for limited periods of time in a "managed and controlled manner".

It could mean planned three-hour blackouts in some areas to protect supplies for heating homes and buildings.

But there are safety concerns over the National Grid ESO proposals with concerns that power cuts will hit the vulnerable.

Frazer Scott, chief executive of Energy Action Scotland said: "The outages are a worry if you have essential medical equipment reliant on energy. That could kill them. "

There are also concerns over the demand flexibility scheme as Scottish Fire and Rescue Service advice says kitchen appliances, should "never" be left running when going out or to bed.

Their advice is that appliances should be switched off at the wall adding: "Washing machines, tumble dryers and dishwashers have powerful parts that heat up, any of which could start a fire if something goes wrong".

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A spokesman for Scottish Hazards, the health and safety campaign network said: "We have serious concerns about advice or incentives to encourage people to use domestic appliances during the night as it runs directly contrary to the strongly stated advice of the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service."

On blackouts the spokesman added: "We clearly hope that it wouldn't come to this and if it did that there would be measures put in place to ensure that the most vulnerable would be protected. Lack of light (even during the day in the Scottish winter) would pose safety risks; the lack of heat during especially cold weather could pose serious health risks as could the inability to prepare at least minimal food and drink."

The National Grid said it was hoped it will deliver energy savings of 2GW - enough to power an estimated 1.5m homes - to balance supply and demand.

It has been encouraging suppliers to work with their customers to ensure the "highest levels of engagement and participation".

The National Grid said that shortages of gas, which generated 40% of UK electricity last year, could mean planned three-hour blackouts in some areas to protect supplies for heating homes and buildings, system operators warned.

Analysts say drought affecting hydropower, nuclear outages, and gas shortages caused by Russia's war on Ukraine are highlighted as risks to the electricity system this winter.

The blackout fears come despite predictions that use of energy will drop this winter, compared to last, as households across the country cut back due to soaring energy bills.

The energy market regulator Ofgem in response to the new measures said it was "incumbent on a responsible and prudent energy sector to ensure the right contingency measures are in place".

Planned blackouts hit the UK during the 1970s in response to the miners strikes and the oil crisis. There have also been major unplanned outages in storms, including in 1987 when over 1.5 million people were left in the dark.

UK ministers have so far played down any talk of a threat to winter energy, saying in August that the UK’s “highly secure and diverse gas and electricity system” had prepared the UK for “all and every eventuality”.

And Liz Truss also ruled out rationing when she was campaigning to become Conservative party leader and Prime Minister.

The European Union is already preparing for widespread blackouts as a result of an energy supply crunch tied to the war in Ukraine.

The European Union is shoring up its resources as temperatures drop and preparing for two “conceivable scenarios” - one in which a few member states experience power cuts, and another in which blackouts occur in many member states at the same time.

Analysts say that due to outages on its nuclear fleet, France has been importing power from Britain, and Norway has warned it may have to curb exports because of failing hydropower reserves.

National Grid (ESO) says in its base case winter scenario that the margins between peak demand and power supply are expected to be sufficient and similar to recent years.

But in the face of the “challenging” winter facing European energy supplies the grid operator is also planning for what would happen if there were no imports of electricity from Europe and insufficient gas supplies.

To tackle a loss of imports from France, Belgium and the Netherlands, there are two gigawatts of coal-fired power plants on stand-by to fire up if needed to meet demand.

And people are now being encouraged to sign up with their electricity supplier to a scheme which will give them money back on their bills to shift their use of power away from times of high demand to help prevent blackouts.

That could mean putting on the dishwasher or washing machine overnight or charging an electric vehicle at off-peak times.

Larger businesses would be paid for reducing demand, for example by shifting their times of energy use or switching to batteries or generators in peak times.

The National Grid ESO's corporate affairs director, Jake Rigg, said: “The demand flexibility service is a first of its kind and a smart way for signed up consumers in homes and businesses to save money and back Britain.

“If you put your washing machine or other electrical appliances on at night instead of the peak in the early evening, you can get some money back when we all need it.

“The service is due to launch in November.... This really is a window into the future where a flexible energy system will be cleaner and lower cost to alternatives.”

Without the scheme, there might be days with high demand and low levels of wind power – when there would be a potential need to interrupt supply to some customers for limited periods, National Grid ESO’s outlook said.

The grid operator also warned in a worst-case scenario that if there is not enough gas to keep the country’s power stations going in January it could force distributors to cut off electricity to households and businesses for three-hour blocks during the day.

Source: YouTube (National Grid ESO) (Image: Source: YouTube (National Grid ESO))

“In the unlikely event we were in this situation, it would mean that some customers could be without power for pre-defined periods during a day – generally this is assumed to be for three-hour blocks,” the ESO said.

It said the number of people left without electricity would depend on how many gas power stations would be forced to shut down because there is not enough gas.

Its base case assumes that when Britain needs more electricity, cables that link the country to its European neighbours will be enough to keep the lights on.

But it did not assume that there is any “material reduction of consumer demand due to high energy prices”.

The National Grid outlook comes as energy analysts LCP have claimed that Britain's power supplies are at risk of running short for ten hours this winter if the nation is unable to import power from continental Europe.

Due to power shortages on the continent, LCP has said that it is "very possible" that Europe will not be able to meet Britain's electricity needs this winter.

As a consequence, power supplies failing to match demand for ten hours could rise to 29 hours if ministers had not already stepped in to keep coal-fired power plants open.

A Government spokesman said in response: “The UK has a secure and diverse energy system.

“We are confident in our plans to protect households and businesses in the full range of scenarios this winter, in light of Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine.

“To strengthen this position further, we have put plans in place to secure supply and National Grid, working alongside energy suppliers and Ofgem, will launch a voluntary service to reward users who reduce demand at peak times.”

The spokesperson said Britain is not dependent on Russian energy imports, and has access to North Sea gas reserves, imports from Norway, and via ports which can handle liquefied natural gas, as well as clean energy sources.