Covid-style test could catch flu cases early, expert says, amid warning deaths could soar

Coronavirus lockdowns and other mitigations such as masks and social distancing meant flu levels were low last winter, which has led to concerns immunity may be compromised.

The Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) is said to have advised clinical leaders that death rates could be 1.5-1.8 times higher this year. 

Doctors are already seeing an increase in cases of a respiratory virus common in children, which scientists say could provide "hints” of a similar picture emerging with flu.

Last year’s low incidence has also meant that little is known about the effects of having both Covid-19 and flu.

Professor Hugh Pennington, who is emeritus professor of bacteriology at the University of Aberdeen, said PCR testing had proved invaluable for providing “rapid, high quality information” about Covid which could be replicated to monitor flu prevalence.

He said: “Never before have we had to contend with the situation that currently obtains with flu being so quiet last season.

“PCR testing has been invaluable in giving rapid high quality information about Covid. It has never been used on such a scale for flu diagnosis. 

“It should be and would be easy to implement for children and adults; early use of antivirals is crucial.

“If flu does get busy, care homes will be prime targets, yet again.”

More than four million people will be offered the flu vaccine this year in Scotland, with secondary pupils offered the jag for the first time this year.

The roll-out was getting underway yesterday amongst primary and senior pupils.

The extended criteria will include those over 50 or with serious, underlying health conditions, unpaid carers, teachers and prison inmates.

“The flu jag has never been as good as any of the Covid ones, but unless a new flu appears, and there is no sign of that happening, it is better than nothing,” said Prof Pennington.

READ MORE: More than 7000 new Covid cases recorded in Scotland 

“Differences from Covid are that there are antiviral drugs that have some benefits against flu,and that flu can cause serious bacterial lung complications which can be treated with antibiotics.

“So the picture is not entirely gloomy.”

In Australia - at a time when flu cases are normally rising to a peak - no deaths have been reported anywhere in the country. However experts say the situation could change very quickly if and when borders re-open.

Professor Neil Mabbott, Chair of Immunopathology at the University of Edinburgh, says the lack of data on the dual effects of Covid and flu is of concern.

He said: “One of the things we haven’t been able to gauge to any great extent is what impact flu could have on someone with Covid and vice versa. 

“Does that make disease much worse if you have those two at the same time?

READ MORE: Here are the groups who get a free flu vaccination this Autumn

“It might be very difficult at the start of an infection to spot if someone has Covid-19 or flu because they both present as very similar in the early stages.

“I’m sure the clinicians are starting to report increased rates of RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) in children.

“That’s given us some hints that we may start to see a resurgence of flu and that’s what we are really concerned about.”

GPs in England and Wales have been reporting shortages of the flu vaccine with doctors forced to cancel patient vaccinations.

Seqirus, one of the UK’s largest suppliers of seasonal flu vaccines, has said the delay of up to two weeks is due to a shortage of HGV drivers.

A spokesman for the Scottish Government said: “Flu vaccines are procured centrally in Scotland, unlike in England and Wales, and we have received an initial delivery from Seqirus. 

“At present indications are that the delays being experienced in England and Wales will not affect the delivery of our flu vaccination programme.

“More people than ever in Scotland will be offered the free flu vaccine this autumn to help protect as many lives as possible. 

“It’s more important than ever to get the flu vaccination, as this winter our immunity against flu may be even lower than usual. 

“This is due to lower levels of the flu virus circulating last year as a result of the crucial public health measures in place to protect the population from COVID-19.

“The core messaging for this year’s flu campaign is to encourage vaccination uptake. 

“Where ever possible additional background information is to include an explanation why immunity is lower to capture the crucial public health measures of hand washing and wearing face coverings.”