IT is either the most daring example of architecture to be imposed upon Scotland’s capital since a castle was built on a hill, or an unsightly steaming dog’s mess that detracts from its beauty.

Opinions may be split on the curling bronze ‘ribbon’ that now dominates Edinburgh’s skyline, but one thing is obvious: it’s very noticeable.

And that, it’s being suggested, could make it a key component in a new battle for shoppers, fought out for years between Edinburgh and its bitter rival at the other end of the M8, and which may well help to define the post-pandemic retail landscape.

Within weeks, the first shops in Edinburgh’s new £1 billion St James Quarter – dominated by the swirling orange peel exterior of the 244-bedroom W hotel and built to replace the eyesore that was the St James Centre – will open their doors.

It’s been a long and painful time coming; plans began in 2006 while work started five years ago, bringing another wave of demolition and disruption to a capital city still reeling from the long running nightmare of its trams.

Among its attractions for shoppers is the newly opened revamped John Lewis – battered by the pandemic, the chain lost £517 million in 2020-21 and announced the closure of 14 stores. There will also be more than 40 global and local brands like Zara, Pull & Bear, H&M, Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein, Dune, Bross Bagels and Salerno Pizza.

Along with the shops, there’ll be a 75-room Roomzzz Aparthotel, event spaces to host pop-up fashion and music shows, restaurants, a cinema and flats.

But the St James Quarter development is not the only significant event for Edinburgh’s once relatively stone-cold retail heart.

Princes Street, long criticised for a mix of rather dreary shops, is on the brink of serious change – new hotels and restaurants are set to emerge in their place, while the city’s West End is now dominated by the Johnnie Walker Princes Street - eight floors dedicated to the national drink in what was once its House of Fraser store.

And while the loss of the capital’s most famous department store, Jenners, might sting, the building’s Danish billionaire owner, Anders Holch Povlsen, has indicated an “exciting restoration” expected to bring hotel accommodation, restaurants and boutiques.

Add in the £22 million overhaul of the National Gallery of Scotland – due to be completed next year – proposals to pedestrianise George Street and Edinburgh City Council’s Waverley Valley Strategy which aims to enhance the area’s appeal as a leisure and retail destination, and Edinburgh’s star appears to be on the rise.

It raises the question of whether Edinburgh begin to win the fight for shoppers?

“What is happening just now in Edinburgh is transformational,” says Murray Stewart, Partner and Head of Real Estate at Edinburgh law firm, Gilson Gray.

“The sheer scale of the St James Quarter development is going to have a significant impact. The design might not be everyone’s cup of tea, but it is instantly recognisable. And whether you call it the Walnut Whip or something else, what it does do is draw people towards the new St James Quarter and very neatly into Multrees Walk and St Andrews Square.

“From there, there’s George Street which has very much become a go to destination for shopping.”

Locals who once despaired over the impact of the trams may have them to thank for its revival.

“Much of this has been driven by the fact that retail on Princes Street was disrupted by the Edinburgh tram works. Retailers didn’t want to be on a street where the footfall was so heavily impacted, so they ended up on the likes of George Street.

“What we will see – and what is already happening – will be a shift in retail towards the east end of Princes Street and Princes Street, with one of the most picturesque views in the world, becoming more of a leisure destination.”

As to whether Edinburgh will snatch Glasgow’s retail crown, he is not sure: “This is a really significant time for Edinburgh there remains clear blue water between it and Glasgow.

“Glasgow is a retail powerhouse. It won’t take its retail crown.”

The gap between the cities, however, seems to be narrowing.

Where Argyll Street and Sauchiehall Street once boasted quality department stores and big brands, have appeared pound shops, charity shops and even a smattering of tartan tourist tat shops catering for the city’s modern appeal as a tourist destination.

And although the £40 million redevelopment of the St. Enoch’s Centre is set to be formally launched next week, including a new Vue cinema, the redevelopment of the former BHS store with new retail and food outlets plus Boom Battle Bar offering a leisure mix including axe throwing, electric darts and boules, Glasgow’s focus appears to be shifting from retail to office, cafes, restaurants and homes.

Major developments include a proposal for more than 700 homes at Portcullis House, the former HMRC building at Charing Cross, and an office and 260-bed hotel scheme at the Met Tower. While at Candleriggs, another hotel, flats and offices are planned.

Some believe Glasgow’s high end retail crown has already slipped.

“Glasgow has lost some key names,” says fashion author and designer Lynn McCrossan. “Agent Provacateur has gone, Mulberry has gone, House of Fraser doesn’t carry as much designer stuff as it used to - Hermes is no longer there.

“In Glasgow, if you want to go high end, you’re looking just looking at Cruise.

“Cruise is amazing, but think of the Italian Centre in the late 80s and 90s when we had the likes of Versace as a standalone store, it now feels like there’s very little.

“I don’t think Edinburgh will edge it over Glasgow in terms of attracting shoppers, but there is a rebirth of the city as a shopping destination.”

While the fight between the two cities to attract shoppers is generations old, the impact of Covid-19 on retail means it could scarcely be more important.

Recent figures recorded by the Scottish Retail Consortium and Sensormatic IQ show a large drop in footfall to Scotland’s shops, down 52.1% in April compared to 2019. The figure for Glasgow showed an almost 52% decrease. Both figures are greater than the UK average decline of 40%.

Further research showed the Scottish shop vacancy rate had hit a six year high, with almost one in six Scottish shop premises now lies empty, above the UK average rate.

David Londsale, Director of the Scottish Retail Consortium, says: “Scotland is incredibly fortunate to have flagship retail destinations in the form of Glasgow and Edinburgh city centres, and Scots benefit enormously from the choice and healthy competition they bring.

“Clearly Edinburgh has a couple of outstanding marquee projects coming to fruition at the moment, which is brilliant and which is sorely needed after the most tumultuous period for the retail industry during the pandemic.

“Both cities are grappling with similar challenges in response to the pandemic – how to keep up with fast moving trends in shopping and leisure, and how to drive footfall and give people a more compelling and diverse set of reasons to visit, spend time and money.

“In the immediate term the sooner we can fully re-open the economy, get people back on to public transport, and bring back office workers and energy and life into Glasgow and Edinburgh city centres the better.

“Longer term both need to make sure they remain attractive destinations for shoppers and visitors but also for retailers and other businesses to invest.

“The SNP’s manifesto pledge to lower the business rates surcharge on larger commercial premises is a promising start, and we’d certainly encourage Scottish Ministers to speed up the implementation of that.”